What Did You Buy Today?

[fenders53]

DAL up 20% this week. Dividend gone for years and I'm seriously not sure they have the FCF next quarter to buy employees coffee and toilet paper. I guess they can finance it.

F just announced they will lose the GNP of a small country the next few quarters. Div cut for years and stock is only up a little today. At least 20% up off it's low.

My purchases will be few and far between. There will be true bargains eventually. I'm starting to get bitter about this insanity. I'm plenty long equities but I sure don't know how I justify it at this point.

[divmenow]

(04-29-2020, 10:49 AM)fenders53 Wrote: DAL up 20% this week.  Dividend gone for years and I'm seriously not sure they have the FCF next quarter to buy employees coffee and toilet paper.  I guess they can finance it.

F just announced they will lose the GNP of a small country the next few quarters.  Div cut for years and stock is only up a little today.  At least 20% up off it's low.

My purchases will be few and far between.  There will be true bargains eventually.  I'm starting to get bitter about this insanity.  I'm plenty long equities but I sure don't know how I justify it at this point.

I'm out of the market. Selling all the stuff I bought in recent months. Some are up 30% from where I got it lol. I'm going 80% cash and will put under my mattress until the market corrects at least 20% lol. No earnings going forward and heavy debt. All these companies are pulling guidance for a reason. We will be going into a recession. It's coming and also we have the presidential election coming up. Everything is based on the corona right now and that's a dangerous game. I don't care if this market goes up another 10% I'm not falling for it. I'm up 28.7% this year now with all the trading in and out and what not. Nothing wrong with that. I will live to fight another day! 

On the new stuff i bough recently I will just hold UPS, C and FRT and keep adding on dips. UPS will be one company I wll bank on of gaining 25% or more when it hits $115-$120 again. And of course I will hold onto my core holdings which will always be up unless the DOW hits 10,000 lol

[fenders53]

(04-29-2020, 11:09 AM)divmenow Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 10:49 AM)fenders53 Wrote: DAL up 20% this week.  Dividend gone for years and I'm seriously not sure they have the FCF next quarter to buy employees coffee and toilet paper.  I guess they can finance it.

F just announced they will lose the GNP of a small country the next few quarters.  Div cut for years and stock is only up a little today.  At least 20% up off it's low.

My purchases will be few and far between.  There will be true bargains eventually.  I'm starting to get bitter about this insanity.  I'm plenty long equities but I sure don't know how I justify it at this point.

I'm out of the market. Selling all the stuff I bought in recent months. Some are up 30% from where I got it lol. I'm going 80% cash and will put under my mattress until the market corrects at least 20% lol. No earnings going forward and heavy debt. All these companies are pulling guidance for a reason. We will be going into a recession. It's coming and also we have the presidential election coming up. Everything is based on the corona right now and that's a dangerous game. I don't care if this market goes up another 10% I'm not falling for it. I'm up 28.7% this year now with all the trading in and out and what not. Nothing wrong with that. I will live to fight another day! 

On the new stuff i bough recently I will just hold UPS, C and FRT and keep adding on dips. UPS will be one company I wll bank on of gaining 25% or more when it hits $115-$120 again. And of course I will hold onto my core holdings which will always be up unless the DOW hits 10,000 lol

What are all of your "core holdings" if you don't mind me asking?  Is it UPS, C and FRT or do you have other core holdings?  You trade a lot, which is completely fine of course, but I suspect some people think you are actually investing when you post 20 buys here some weeks.  We usually don't hear about any sells so it comes off like you must own 200 stocks.   Just asking because we converse daily.  (which I enjoy) 

I know I am the Super Bear here often, but I do keep most of my port invested while flipping a little in and out on the 10% runs in individual stocks.  For better or worse I also hedge a little to keep my port beta down some through an obvious recession coming.  I know I can't time the market consistently.  A 90 day win streak will mean absolutely nothing long-term so I don't even try. I always have cash if the big one comes.

[EricL]

Trimmed my ABT position and added to WFC.

[divmenow]

(04-29-2020, 11:38 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 11:09 AM)divmenow Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 10:49 AM)fenders53 Wrote: DAL up 20% this week.  Dividend gone for years and I'm seriously not sure they have the FCF next quarter to buy employees coffee and toilet paper.  I guess they can finance it.

F just announced they will lose the GNP of a small country the next few quarters.  Div cut for years and stock is only up a little today.  At least 20% up off it's low.

My purchases will be few and far between.  There will be true bargains eventually.  I'm starting to get bitter about this insanity.  I'm plenty long equities but I sure don't know how I justify it at this point.

I'm out of the market. Selling all the stuff I bought in recent months. Some are up 30% from where I got it lol. I'm going 80% cash and will put under my mattress until the market corrects at least 20% lol. No earnings going forward and heavy debt. All these companies are pulling guidance for a reason. We will be going into a recession. It's coming and also we have the presidential election coming up. Everything is based on the corona right now and that's a dangerous game. I don't care if this market goes up another 10% I'm not falling for it. I'm up 28.7% this year now with all the trading in and out and what not. Nothing wrong with that. I will live to fight another day! 

On the new stuff i bough recently I will just hold UPS, C and FRT and keep adding on dips. UPS will be one company I wll bank on of gaining 25% or more when it hits $115-$120 again. And of course I will hold onto my core holdings which will always be up unless the DOW hits 10,000 lol

What are all of your "core holdings" if you don't mind me asking?  Is it UPS, C and FRT or do you have other core holdings?  You trade a lot, which is completely fine of course, but I suspect some people think you are actually investing when you post 20 buys here some weeks.  We usually don't hear about any sells so it comes off like you must own 200 stocks.   Just asking because we converse daily.  (which I enjoy) 

I know I am the Super Bear here often, but I do keep most of my port invested while flipping a little in and out on the 10% runs in individual stocks.  For better or worse I also hedge a little to keep my port beta down some through an obvious recession coming.  I know I can't time the market consistently.  A 90 day win streak will mean absolutely nothing long-term so I don't even try.  I always have cash if the big one comes.

My core holdings are LMT, MCD, DUK, JNJ, APD, AMGN, UNH, HD, CP and MSFT.  I have a total of 67 stocks not 200 thank you lol. My core holdings are ones I have held for over 20 years and through stock splits ect. I always add to them on big market declines. I added to JNJ CP, AMGN, PEP, DUK, MCD AND MCO back in late march and early April.  Those stocks will go to my kids some day. The other stocks Just outside of my core holdings like CCI, PEP,  DPZ, AEP, TGT, NEE, SBUX, PM that I have had for a while as well. But trimmed a a lot of late in recent days. I rarely post my sells as there not that important. Only the buys are what matters. No one cares what you sell   

And I get in and out of a lot of stocks. This is a traders market and I don't like holding this over the weekend. Once I get my 2-3 points I move on. Take WEN for instance I made my 3 points and got out. I made $600 in a week but lost by not staying in. Its now back to $20 lol. But a profit is a profit and I don't look back. 

AS far as UPS, C and FRT. I bought between 25-75 each. I always try to have at least 25 shares of a company. I don't bother with 1-2 shares. To me that defeats the purpose of collecting a dividend stock. Why bother getting paid .25-$1.00.  

In recent days I trimmed IIPR, MMM, LLY and today PSX and BLK

[fenders53]

I hope this doesn't come across too harsh. Thanks for posting all that, I just asked for context because we all read your posts. If our buys matter then so do our sells. I don't really care what you are buying on Tuesday if you are selling it on Thursday for a 3% gain and not telling us you're out. This is a DGI forum so whether you are day trading or investing is of some significance.

As far as 1-2 share trades not mattering, please allow me to very strongly disagree. I know with certainty a lot of the membership is doing exactly that because I chat with them offline. That's exactly how I started 30 years ago and it damn sure did matter when I partially retired 10 years earlier than most ever dream of. Rethink that thought because it comes off a little arrogant.

If you are holding 67 stocks and are up 28%+ YTD total port in a market that is down, that is nothing less than amazing. You should share your exits because you got it figured out better than most pro traders. We do that on the option thread chats for better or worse. It sucks to admit to a loss but we do it. Transparency is helpful.

[stockguru]

(04-29-2020, 01:23 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I hope this doesn't come across too harsh.  Thanks for posting all that, I just asked for context because we all read your posts.  If our buys matter then so do our sells.  I don't really care what you are buying on Tuesday if you are selling it on Thursday for a 3% gain and not telling us you're out. This is a DGI forum so whether you are day trading or investing is of some significance.  

As far as 1-2 share trades not mattering, please allow me to very strongly disagree.  I know with certainty a lot of the membership is doing exactly that because I chat with them offline.  That's exactly how I started 30 years ago and it damn sure did matter when I partially retired 10 years earlier than most ever dream of.  Rethink that thought because it comes off a little arrogant.

If you are holding 67 stocks and are up 28%+ YTD total port in a market that is down, that is nothing less than amazing.  You should share your exits because you got it figured out better than most pro traders.  We do that on the option thread chats for better or worse.  It sucks to admit to a loss but we do it.  Transparency is helpful.

That sounds harsh to me. I don't know how he will take it. But this is suppose to be a fun forum and when you criticize ones buying and selling or tell then what they have to post. What's the point in posting then? Your a bully    Everyone has his or own right what to post or not to post. I can't speak for everyone but divennow has helped me out a lot on these boards and messages directly to me. I was a newbie on here an his knowledge and understanding helped me a out great deal. You seem to buy a lot as well. Do you own 200 stocks as well. Because it seems you do the most buying on here; more then anyone. You say you trimmed some names but you don't give details as to which names or how many shares. So isn't that the same thing?? 

And when I said I bought 1-2 shares you laughed at me   Each investor has a different ways to doing things. What works for them, might not work for others. Vice versa. Wouldn't you agree with that?? 

You wrong more times then right. Yeah I said it  Don't but FB, CBRL, VFC, CLX, and the list goes on. All those stocks are up big since then. 

Anyway its all in fun 

[fenders53]

Slow day. Sold FCX. A copper miner I bought right before the virus. Got out just a few percent above even after being way down. I never have much spec in my port but almost every bit of it was directly in the cross hairs of the virus. I guess a little more flight to quality is in order for my personal situation (age). Spec is all good when you are winning more than you lose.

Still trimming some of my overpriced pharma, but very slowly. ABT is a wonderful company but the Div just doesn't meet the strategy and I don't think it will soon. They just don't qualify to be a full position for now. Everyone pulling guidance seems alarming near all time high SPs. The market doesn't seem to mind so far. BMY is a candidate for an add. Pharma seems to be cooling off if they aren't directly benefiting from the virus solution. I think elective surgeries and routine live in person physician appointments have to return or pharma profits may be subdued next quarter.

[Otter]

(04-29-2020, 09:51 AM)kblake Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 09:32 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 09:28 AM)Otter Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 09:18 AM)kblake Wrote: I just bought WMT. Its a reliable stock and one that will do well in any economy. Its down $4 today on rotation but I think this is a $150 stock by years end. COST also on my buy list.

Great company, but I don't see the value there. Trading at a decadal premium P/E of over 25, which is well above its 10yr average of 17.34. A reversion to mean over the next year would drop the price to ~$89/share. Earnings growth rate of only 1.58% over the past decade doesn't seem to justify the P/E premium. It's trading like a FAANG stock without the earnings growth to back it up, and with a total enterprise value of nearly half a trillion, the law of large numbers puts a cap on growth prospects.

Like AMZN, not a company I would ever short, but can't see buying in at these valuations. 

Money will rotate out of WMT and some of the over-hyped consumer non-durables when virus hoard frenzy ends.

I disagree. WMT deserves a higher multiple. I don't care about graphs or history. You can throw that all out. Stocks go up over the long term on fundamentals. And WMT is killing it especially on line. They are the 1 company that can compete with AMZN. Forward PE is only 16 which is cheap. There sales are the best they have been over the last 5 years.

Where are you getting a forward P/E of 16? FAST Graphs uses a blended P/E that blends TTM and forecast earnings. GuruFocus shows a forward P/E of 24. Yahoo Finance has 24.75.

I agree that in the long term, stocks are driven by fundamentals, which is why I think they are overvalued on pretty much any metric. Walmart is absolutely enjoying the best sales it has had in years, along with Costco and a number of grocery stores. I think that is more a short-term effect of them continuing to operate during lockdowns and the bulk buying that was occurring in anticipation of and during lockdowns. Their pre-COVID sales numbers are likely more reflective of what the company does in a normal business environment at the top of a bull market. 

Roughly 60% of Amazon earnings come from AWS, and not from low-margin retail. WMT would have to take substantial market share from AMZN at such low margins to justify paying $25 for each $1 of earnings, for me. 

For the same relative price, you can pay $25 for a $1 of ADP earnings, which has grown earnings by about 11% annually over the past decade (10x better than WMT). They also have an AA credit rating (.17 debt/equity ratio vs. .43 for WMT), 44 years of dividend growth history (47 for WMT), a current yield about 85 basis points higher than WMT, and a Chowder Number of 16 (vs. 4 for WMT).

[fenders53]

At the risk of sounding overly-optimist, you all know I am pessimistic lately lol. Dr Fauci commented on the GILD drug trials. I believe all the patients in the test were severe. 8% fatalities instead of 11%. That's over 30% improvement. That's a lot of saves worldwide. Those who did recover are out of ICU 11 days vs 15 days placebo. Doesn't sound like a miracle drug, but somebody's grandmother gets to live and maybe they base a better drug off of REM soon. I'm not all that hopeful for a vaccine soon but a way to treat it sure sounds good to me.

[Otter]

(04-29-2020, 02:24 PM)fenders53 Wrote: At the risk of sounding overly-optimist, you all know I am pessimistic lately lol.   Dr Fauci commented on the GILD drug trials.  I believe all the patients in the test were severe.  8% fatalities instead of 11%.  That's over 30% improvement. That's a lot of saves worldwide.  Those who did  recover are out of ICU 11 days vs 15 days placebo.  Doesn't sound like a miracle drug, but somebody's grandmother gets to live and maybe they base a better drug off of REM soon.  I'm not all that hopeful for a vaccine soon but a way to treat it sure sounds good to me.

Effective therapeutics also lessen the overall burden on the healthcare system, reducing the risk that healthcare system capacity is overwhelmed. That risk is why lockdowns were needed in the first place, to buy time and capacity for our healthcare system (can't have a functioning day-to-day economy if the usual percentages of car wrecks, workplace injuries, heart attacks, etc., can't be treated because hospitals are filled with COVID patients). I actually think the big market swings on Remdesivir news are somewhat rational. Anything that lessens the risk of future lockdowns reduces the risk of a repeat nosedive in economic activity. 

I'm not saying I think it is a steady path up from here, without further volatility, but I think we have seen the worst in terms of risk to healthcare system capacity and declines in economic activity. Many areas are likely to see second waves, but we are far better prepared as a society now than we were two months ago.

[fenders53]

(04-29-2020, 02:10 PM)Otter Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 09:51 AM)kblake Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 09:32 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 09:28 AM)Otter Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 09:18 AM)kblake Wrote: I just bought WMT. Its a reliable stock and one that will do well in any economy. Its down $4 today on rotation but I think this is a $150 stock by years end. COST also on my buy list.

Great company, but I don't see the value there. Trading at a decadal premium P/E of over 25, which is well above its 10yr average of 17.34. A reversion to mean over the next year would drop the price to ~$89/share. Earnings growth rate of only 1.58% over the past decade doesn't seem to justify the P/E premium. It's trading like a FAANG stock without the earnings growth to back it up, and with a total enterprise value of nearly half a trillion, the law of large numbers puts a cap on growth prospects.

Like AMZN, not a company I would ever short, but can't see buying in at these valuations. 

Money will rotate out of WMT and some of the over-hyped consumer non-durables when virus hoard frenzy ends.

I disagree. WMT deserves a higher multiple. I don't care about graphs or history. You can throw that all out. Stocks go up over the long term on fundamentals. And WMT is killing it especially on line. They are the 1 company that can compete with AMZN. Forward PE is only 16 which is cheap. There sales are the best they have been over the last 5 years.

Where are you getting a forward P/E of 16? FAST Graphs uses a blended P/E that blends TTM and forecast earnings. GuruFocus shows a forward P/E of 24. Yahoo Finance has 24.75.

I agree that in the long term, stocks are driven by fundamentals, which is why I think they are overvalued on pretty much any metric. Walmart is absolutely enjoying the best sales it has had in years, along with Costco and a number of grocery stores. I think that is more a short-term effect of them continuing to operate during lockdowns and the bulk buying that was occurring in anticipation of and during lockdowns. Their pre-COVID sales numbers are likely more reflective of what the company does in a normal business environment at the top of a bull market. 

Roughly 60% of Amazon earnings come from AWS, and not from low-margin retail. WMT would have to take substantial market share from AMZN at such low margins to justify paying $25 for each $1 of earnings, for me. 

For the same relative price, you can pay $25 for a $1 of ADP earnings, which has grown earnings by about 11% annually over the past decade (10x better than WMT). They also have an AA credit rating (.17 debt/equity ratio vs. .43 for WMT), 44 years of dividend growth history (47 for WMT), a current yield about 85 basis points higher than WMT, and a Chowder Number of 16 (vs. 4 for WMT).

The bolded part is exactly my impression too.  As you know I work PT at HD.  We don't sell anything particularly necessary like groceries.  We are limiting traffic and crushing sales, because we are open and most small BIZ is closed.  Sales are 130% of plan for weeks now.  Employee expenses are also through the roof.  Big box is the only game in town in MANY states, until next month.   

WMT SP is a year or more ahead of itself.  A fine company very long-term but valuation when you enter matters in the end.  I am anxious to see AMZN sales.  Revenue is going to knock it out of the park and we'll soon see what they spent to make it happen.   I sold my AMZN a week early of course.