Next Recission ?

[EricL]

Washington, Ohio, and Illinois are telling all bars and restaurants to close. I'm sure there will be more.

MGM and WYNN are shutting down all their casinos in Las Vegas. How many thousand employees would this be?

The airline and hotel industry are effectively shut down for the next couple months.

I doubt auto companies are selling any cars, how many does that sector employ?

I wouldn't be surprised if GDP is down 5-10% in Q2, if not even more.

This is happening all across the world!

I would be shocked if this doesn't end in a recession.

[vbin]

(03-15-2020, 10:18 PM)EricL Wrote: Washington, Ohio, and Illinois are telling all bars and restaurants to close. I'm sure there will be more.

MGM and WYNN are shutting down all their casinos in Las Vegas. How many thousand employees would this be?

The airline and hotel industry are effectively shut down for the next couple months.

I doubt auto companies are selling any cars, how many does that sector employ?

I wouldn't be surprised if GDP is down 5-10% in Q2, if not even more.

This is happening all across the world!

I would be shocked if this doesn't end in a recession.

I listened to the feds call today. Powell litrelly said next 2 quarters will be down significantly after that I don't know.

So basically he is saying, drop ahead and don't know the depth, where it gonna stop. Real scary.

Only positive talk was that fed will do whatever possible to support and recover.

[vbin]

(03-15-2020, 09:11 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(03-15-2020, 08:30 PM)vbin Wrote: If folks were to buy 1 company from each sector they want in their portfolio, only 1 company, what would that be.

I'll play if you want to start a thread. Not that many people post this old recession thread.

Sure. Thank you.

[vbin]

National guard deployed in San Jose. 14 day national shut down coming.
Some news reoporting, not confirmed yet.

[fenders53]

(03-15-2020, 10:18 PM)EricL Wrote: Washington, Ohio, and Illinois are telling all bars and restaurants to close. I'm sure there will be more.

MGM and WYNN are shutting down all their casinos in Las Vegas. How many thousand employees would this be?

The airline and hotel industry are effectively shut down for the next couple months.

I doubt auto companies are selling any cars, how many does that sector employ?

I wouldn't be surprised if GDP is down 5-10% in Q2, if not even more.

This is happening all across the world!

I would be shocked if this doesn't end in a recession.

Recession is already here.  We just haven't seen the earnings reports yet.  There is a reason the FED is going crazy with liquidity.  IMO it won't cure it, but it may avoid another 2008.

[fenders53]

Well the 1.3T virus bill has passed the senate. It's sure a scary number but it had to happen. It's not going to stop the virus, but it might prevent a very serious recession. This is all we could hope for to fix our portfolio values. We'll have to hope the market is forgiving when the numbers are bad. Some of it has to be baked in already with a lot of quality stocks down a full 50% and trading at prices not seen for 5 years. I'm certainly not calling a bottom, but this gives me hope we are looking at far less BKs and excessive dividend cuts.

Companies that survive need to heed the warning. I don't expect them to survive months with zero revenue, but I'm starting to wonder if some of them could endure a severe winter without it stressing them. We have all benefited from the huge share buybacks. (and so have the company boards with their huge stock compensation). I'm starting to re-think the wisdom of that now. I'm not at all a class warfare guy, but they could just retire and leave us with worthless shares. BA and the airlines are a recent example.