Next Recission ?

[fenders53]

And now we are going to endeavor to impeach our president. Other than his Tweets are going to be a little more unhinged, I see this as a big nothing burger as far as recession risk goes. I think the market can see through this folly.

[rayray]

Stay the course and ignore all noise--invest for yourself/family without emotion.

Without emotion? It's best to make any major decision, specifically a financial decision, without any emotion. Financially, for stock purchases, look at the numbers and only the numbers, and if true as in not a lie, in the long term one cannot lose.

[fenders53]

(05-31-2019, 05:09 PM)Otter Wrote:

(05-31-2019, 04:15 PM)fenders53 Wrote: OK, I didn't see assessing more tariffs to other nations coming.  Make a new trade deal with Mexico and then threaten huge tariffs a few months later?  This is an unpredictable mess with potentially dire consequences.

With oil prices plunging, tariffs with our largest trading partner is the last thing my state's economy needs. You'd think 38 electoral votes and Ted Cruz's uncharacteristically narrow 2.6% margin of victory in the 2018 Senate race would advise caution as to anything that could upset the economic apple cart. Between that and potentially devastating auto/part manufacturers in swing states that delivered the narrow electoral college victory in 2016, it seems like a pretty boneheaded political move, economics aside.

(09-28-2019, 07:20 AM)rayray Wrote: Stay the course and ignore all noise--invest for yourself/family without emotion.

Without emotion? It's best to make any major decision, specifically a financial decision, without any emotion. Financially, for stock purchases, look at the numbers and only the numbers, and if true as in not a lie, in the long term one cannot lose.

Depends on how you define long-term.  My long-term is now much shorter than it was 25 years ago.  I pay attention to other peoples emotions.  It makes it possible to crush the S&P when it goes nowhere but sideways for years.

[fenders53]

Sounds like the trade war is resolved again today.  The soap opera you can't stop watching. Thanks for all the chances to trade the swngs lol.  Weekly buying ops lol.

[Otter]

The next recession is closer than it has ever been.

[MikeWa]

Today's Chucks article with a very nice FastGraphs video:
How To Protect Your Dividend Growth Portfolio From The Pending Market Crash
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4321970...rket-crash

[rayray]

Maybe this coronavirus will throw the U.S. into a recession.

Personally, I think this is all done by winter and the market recovers--it might be flat to slightly negative but I don't think we finish deep in the red from last year highs. We might have several months of buying opportunities with a really good 2021.

Stay healthy!!

[fenders53]

(05-31-2019, 05:09 PM)Otter Wrote:

(05-31-2019, 04:15 PM)fenders53 Wrote: OK, I didn't see assessing more tariffs to other nations coming.  Make a new trade deal with Mexico and then threaten huge tariffs a few months later?  This is an unpredictable mess with potentially dire consequences.

With oil prices plunging, tariffs with our largest trading partner is the last thing my state's economy needs. You'd think 38 electoral votes and Ted Cruz's uncharacteristically narrow 2.6% margin of victory in the 2018 Senate race would advise caution as to anything that could upset the economic apple cart. Between that and potentially devastating auto/part manufacturers in swing states that delivered the narrow electoral college victory in 2016, it seems like a pretty boneheaded political move, economics aside.

(03-14-2020, 08:18 AM)rayray Wrote: Maybe this coronavirus will throw the U.S. into a recession.

Personally, I think this is all done by winter and the market recovers--it might be flat to slightly negative but I don't think we finish deep in the red from last year highs. We might have several months of buying opportunities with a really good 2021.

Stay healthy!!

There will be a brief recession.  It's inevitable when the country is closed for business for months.  Zero interest rates can fix it, but they can't stop it.  That's the biggest problem with our nation's response to the crisis.  We squandered valuable time not preparing.  This is Trump's "Katrina".  Until yesterday we were being briefed on economic plans to save the stock market, and of course 'wash your hands".  Even yesterday during the press conference oil prices are being discussed when major parts of the country are terrified.  That was an "oh just wow" moment for me.  My elderly mother is scared.  She isn't so concerned with fracker profit margins and FED actions right now.

[Kerim]

(03-14-2020, 08:18 AM)rayray Wrote: Maybe this coronavirus will throw the U.S. into a recession.

Personally, I think this is all done by winter and the market recovers--it might be flat to slightly negative but I don't think we finish deep in the red from last year highs. We might have several months of buying opportunities with a really good 2021.

Stay healthy!!

My guess is that it is going to be a fair bit worse than that, but I hope you're right and I'm wrong. I will be staying as sharp as I can and taking advantage of the best buying opportunities as I see them.

In any case, we will adjust to whatever the new normal is, and companies will get back to making money.

[fenders53]

I am going to be very pleased if the market is down less than 10% for the year. I don't think anyone will make money other than new purchases when you catch the market being overly irrational on companies that don't actually have fleas. It will take those fundamentally troubled stocks years to come back given the new head winds. There is no quick fixing low demand induced by global recessionary pressure. Months from now new countries may see their first infections. If you have enough cash to make the right new purchases during the height of the fear, that could make your overall port flat for the year. Otherwise you just ride it out. Today, 2021 seems like a more reasonable expectation.

[vbin]

If folks were to buy 1 company from each sector they want in their portfolio, only 1 company, what would that be.

[fenders53]

(03-15-2020, 08:30 PM)vbin Wrote: If folks were to buy 1 company from each sector they want in their portfolio, only 1 company, what would that be.

I'll play if you want to start a thread. Not that many people post this old recession thread.