The perfect 2019 port, a contest of sorts....

[stockguru]

(11-05-2019, 02:45 PM)EricL Wrote:

(11-04-2019, 07:23 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Thanks Otter.  Those will be pretty solid returns after we add annual dividends in December.  I'm not sure if there is a lesson in our results so far, but here are a few thoughts....

-I do find it interesting 75% of the participants are beating the SPY while still maintaining a mostly SWAN stock selection.  Nobody is even close to a losing year with little diversification.  Seems to me we did as well or better than most mutual fund managers or authors we read.  Of course the game would change if we were forced to pick 50 stocks.  Little chance any of us double the SPY with even ten stocks.  

-In a small port obviously sector is extremely influential.  Energy is a laggard again this year.  You picked one or you didn't and it affected results.      

Thanks for playing everyone.  I'd like to do it again for 2020 but we'll pick earlier.

My OXY pick is killing me. Would be doing really well without that pick.

That OXY keeps getting cheaper by the day. If they dont cut the dividend it may be good entry under $40. Glad I didn't pick that one 

[EricL]

(11-06-2019, 03:09 PM)stockguru Wrote:

(11-05-2019, 02:45 PM)EricL Wrote:

(11-04-2019, 07:23 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Thanks Otter.  Those will be pretty solid returns after we add annual dividends in December.  I'm not sure if there is a lesson in our results so far, but here are a few thoughts....

-I do find it interesting 75% of the participants are beating the SPY while still maintaining a mostly SWAN stock selection.  Nobody is even close to a losing year with little diversification.  Seems to me we did as well or better than most mutual fund managers or authors we read.  Of course the game would change if we were forced to pick 50 stocks.  Little chance any of us double the SPY with even ten stocks.  

-In a small port obviously sector is extremely influential.  Energy is a laggard again this year.  You picked one or you didn't and it affected results.      

Thanks for playing everyone.  I'd like to do it again for 2020 but we'll pick earlier.

My OXY pick is killing me. Would be doing really well without that pick.

That OXY keeps getting cheaper by the day. If they dont cut the dividend it may be good entry under $40. Glad I didn't pick that one 

I think there's a very real possibility the dividend is cut if crude prices don't recover quickly. I'm continuing to hold, but definitely holding my nose as I do it.

[fenders53]

Everytime I invest in oil I spend the next couple years hoping the dividend and covered calls get me back to even. I own BP and ENB now, not that any major or pipeline is much different than the other choices a year down the road.

[NilesMike]

(11-06-2019, 07:50 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Everytime I invest in oil I spend the next couple years hoping the dividend and covered calls get me back to even. I own BP and ENB now, not that any major or pipeline is much different than the other choices a year down the road.

I got lucky with MPC June 6 @ 48.10

[fenders53]

(11-06-2019, 09:50 PM)NilesMike Wrote:

(11-06-2019, 07:50 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Everytime I invest in oil I spend the next couple years hoping the dividend and covered calls get me back to even.  I own BP and ENB now, not that any major or pipeline is much different than the other choices a year down the road.

I got lucky with MPC June 6 @ 48.10

I've been lucky in oil a few times but it wasn't anytime recently.  In retrospect, the only reliable way to make money is buy them when they look like they are going BK, sell after a good run and go away for years.  I'd bet just about everybody on the forum owns oil and wishing it was a true DGI stock.  Those days may be gone forever.

[Otter]

(11-04-2019, 02:48 PM)Otter Wrote: Okay, results after three quarters of this (tracked from 2/1/19 to 10/31/19), as reflected by portfoliovisualizer.com, totals are below. For jdhansen, I had to split the 20% of the portfolio allocated to DWDP, which has now split up into CTVA, DD, and DOW, on the following basis (3% CTVA, 7% DD, 10% DOW, which is roughly the same proportionate split as the companies underwent when factored into the 20% whole):

fenders53                    $13,256  32.56%
divmenow                    $12,319  23.19%
Binary                         $12,028  20.28%
Kerim                          $11,881  18.81%
DividendGarden            $11,495 14.95%
jdhansen                     $11,481   14.81%
EricL                           $11,420  14.20%
stockguru                    $11,324  13.24%
Otter                           $11,048 10.48%
rayray                         $10,741    7.41%
ChadR                         $10,595   5.95%

SPY return over the same period is 11.16%

Updated through the end of January, 2020, to take in a full calendar year. Also ran SPY to show how the benchmark did over the same time period. Final results:

fenders53                    $13,911  39.11%
divmenow                    $13,204  32.04%
Kerim                          $12,989  29.89%
Binary                         $12,654  26.54%
EricL                           $12,298  22.98%
SPY                            $12,145  21.45%
Otter                           $12,033 20.34%
DividendGarden            $11,948 19.48%
rayray                         $11,785   17.85%
jdhansen                     $11,604   16.04%
stockguru                    $11,564  15.64%
ChadR                         $10,861   8.61%

[fenders53]

Thanks a bunch for handling that Otter. It was fun, and time sure flies. Given the dividend requirement, it's pretty impressive that six beat the SPY. I know Chad's not pleased with his performance, but it happens with a basket of only five stocks of course. And I got a little lucky for sure. I had no expectation RQI would run that high as it's just a high div CEF. At least at the beginning of the year it was high div.