The perfect 2019 port, a contest of sorts....

[NilesMike]

(08-23-2019, 11:12 PM)fenders53 Wrote: . RQI is my best stock and I am still holding my breath. Insane return and I don't know why if I'm honest.

Your RQI looks like it made a channel breakout. This thing could zoom a bit from here! Nice trade.

[fenders53]

(09-05-2019, 06:51 PM)NilesMike Wrote:

(08-23-2019, 11:12 PM)fenders53 Wrote: .  RQI is my best stock and I am still holding my breath.  Insane return and I don't know why if I'm honest.  

Your RQI looks like it made a channel breakout. This thing could zoom a bit from here! Nice trade.

Yeah well when I bought I thought I'd take the 8% Div, and the SP could surely run up 5% this year with the possibility of interest rates dropping.  If I have any sense I'll trim it some soon.  Anyone buying it now has to be up to nothing but a momentum trade.

[Otter]

Okay, results after three quarters of this (tracked from 2/1/19 to 10/31/19), as reflected by portfoliovisualizer.com, totals are below. For jdhansen, I had to split the 20% of the portfolio allocated to DWDP, which has now split up into CTVA, DD, and DOW, on the following basis (3% CTVA, 7% DD, 10% DOW, which is roughly the same proportionate split as the companies underwent when factored into the 20% whole):

fenders53                    $13,256  32.56%
divmenow                    $12,319  23.19%
Binary                         $12,028  20.28%
Kerim                          $11,881  18.81%
DividendGarden            $11,495 14.95%
jdhansen                     $11,481   14.81%
EricL                           $11,420  14.20%
stockguru                    $11,324  13.24%
Otter                           $11,048 10.48%
rayray                         $10,741    7.41%
ChadR                         $10,595   5.95%

SPY return over the same period is 11.16%

[fenders53]

Thanks Otter. Those will be pretty solid returns after we add annual dividends in December. I'm not sure if there is a lesson in our results so far, but here are a few thoughts....

-I do find it interesting 75% of the participants are beating the SPY while still maintaining a mostly SWAN stock selection. Nobody is even close to a losing year with little diversification. Seems to me we did as well or better than most mutual fund managers or authors we read. Of course the game would change if we were forced to pick 50 stocks. Little chance any of us double the SPY with even ten stocks.

-In a small port obviously sector is extremely influential. Energy is a laggard again this year. You picked one or you didn't and it affected results.

Thanks for playing everyone. I'd like to do it again for 2020 but we'll pick earlier.

[ChadR]

Wow, 2019 was not my year for stock picking. At least I didn't lose money. Though half the return of SPY doesn't look good. Thanks for tabulating the results Otter.

[fenders53]

(11-05-2019, 09:44 AM)ChadR Wrote: Wow, 2019 was not my year for stock picking.  At least I didn't lose money.  Though half the return of SPY doesn't look good.  Thanks for tabulating the results Otter.

If anyone ever tells you the index never outperformed them over a short year they are either lucky, or dishonest.  If it were easy there would be a long list of Mutual Fund managers doing it consistently over a long period of time.  That list is pretty short and they write books. 

[EricL]

(11-04-2019, 07:23 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Thanks Otter. Those will be pretty solid returns after we add annual dividends in December. I'm not sure if there is a lesson in our results so far, but here are a few thoughts....

-I do find it interesting 75% of the participants are beating the SPY while still maintaining a mostly SWAN stock selection. Nobody is even close to a losing year with little diversification. Seems to me we did as well or better than most mutual fund managers or authors we read. Of course the game would change if we were forced to pick 50 stocks. Little chance any of us double the SPY with even ten stocks.

-In a small port obviously sector is extremely influential. Energy is a laggard again this year. You picked one or you didn't and it affected results.

Thanks for playing everyone. I'd like to do it again for 2020 but we'll pick earlier.

My OXY pick is killing me. Would be doing really well without that pick.

[Otter]

(11-05-2019, 09:44 AM)ChadR Wrote: Wow, 2019 was not my year for stock picking.  At least I didn't lose money.  Though half the return of SPY doesn't look good.  Thanks for tabulating the results Otter.

It ain't over 'til it's over!

Will update at end of year with final 11-month numbers, then we can do it all over again for 2020. 

[fenders53]

(09-03-2019, 04:53 PM)Otter Wrote:

(08-23-2019, 11:12 PM)fenders53 Wrote: AAPL
HD
NEE
UPS
RQI

 
With the above picks yielding over 30% in nine months, it's pretty clear I'm a stock market jeanyus.  Let me tell you how it actually went down in my real live port.  
AAPL and HD, I averaged down both of them to 100 share positions months before the contest started.  Both positions took a real beating, and when they recovered $20 I happily sold covered calls.  Then I chased them rolling the calls forward every month or so.  Gave up and got exercised last month.  No crying allowed, the profit was very good but I definitely left $15/share on the table.  Selling options has  served me well.  It fails when a stock does a moon shot.   
NEE- That worked out.  I started a core position at 175.  Only 30 shares.  Now I wait for a chance to buy more.
UPS-  Still don't own it.  Sucking my thumb was expensive.  I sure had chances sub $100.  Sold a couple puts that expired worthless.  Small win. 
 
RQI- This was a very good one.  It's an 8%+ yielder favorite on S.A. for years.  It's ran up steady to the point that I don't see why anyone would buy it for the now 6% yield and high valuation.  I finally sold it a couple weeks ago near the top.  It's struggled since.  Well run CEF.  I'll be back when it corrects hard with the market at some point.    
Does everyone else own the stocks they picked for the contest?         

[Otter]

(11-05-2019, 05:40 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(09-03-2019, 04:53 PM)Otter Wrote:

(08-23-2019, 11:12 PM)fenders53 Wrote: AAPL
HD
NEE
UPS
RQI

 
With the above picks yielding over $30 in nine months, it's pretty clear I'm a stock market jeanyus.  Let me tell you how it actually went down in my real live port.  
AAPL and HD, I averaged down both of them to 100 share positions months before the contest started.  Both positions took a real beating, and when they recovered $20 I happily sold covered calls.  Then I chased them rolling the calls forward every month or so.  Gave up and got exercised last month.  No crying allowed, the profit was very good but I definitely left $15/share on the table.  Selling options has  served me well.  It fails when a stock does a moon shot.   
NEE- That worked out.  I started a core position at 175.  Only 30 shares.  Now I wait for a chance to buy more.
UPS-  Still don't own it.  Sucking my thumb was expensive.  I sure had chances sub $100.  Sold a couple puts that expired worthless.  Small win. 
 
RQI- This was a very good one.  It's an 8%+ yielder favorite on S.A. for years.  It's ran up steady to the point that I don't see why anyone would buy it for the now 6% yield and high valuation.  I finally sold it a couple weeks ago near the top.  It's struggled since.  Well run CEF.  I'll be back when it corrects hard with the market at some point.    
Does everyone else own the stocks they picked for the contest?         

I own BTI (2.16% of income stream), F (1.77%), IBM (1.14%), and NGG (0.52%).  Had a position in JCI, which was my other pick, but sold it a few months back as the valuation seemed really stretched, yield is low, and they are no longer in DGI mode (now 8 consecutive quarters without a raise). 

Edited to add - NGG is very much a wildcard at this point, from Brexit and U.K. election uncertainty. If Corbyn gets a majority there in the next election, the stock could tank, as he threatened to nationalize it a few months back. If a hard Brexit happens, the stock could also take a big hit. A minority Labour/LibDem/SNP government with a confidence & supply agreement, and second referendum that rejects Brexit would probably cause the stock to soar. There are all sorts of scenarios between these that could also cause volatility. Utilities are supposed to be boring. NGG is apparently the British version of PCG.

[NilesMike]

(11-05-2019, 01:19 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(11-05-2019, 09:44 AM)ChadR Wrote: Wow, 2019 was not my year for stock picking.  At least I didn't lose money.  Though half the return of SPY doesn't look good.  Thanks for tabulating the results Otter.

If anyone ever tells you the index never outperformed them over a short year they are either lucky, or dishonest.  If it were easy there would be a long list of Mutual Fund managers doing it consistently over a long period of time.  That list is pretty short and they write books. 

The reason it's tough for money managers is because of their size. They cannot get a large enough position without moving price up because of their large purchases.

The funds also need to be fully invested when sometimes going to cash i the right play.

Picking the stocks or strategy is the lesser part of the issue for them.

Does anyone really believe that their personal money doesn't beat the market?

[fenders53]

(11-05-2019, 06:27 PM)NilesMike Wrote:

(11-05-2019, 01:19 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(11-05-2019, 09:44 AM)ChadR Wrote: Wow, 2019 was not my year for stock picking.  At least I didn't lose money.  Though half the return of SPY doesn't look good.  Thanks for tabulating the results Otter.

If anyone ever tells you the index never outperformed them over a short year they are either lucky, or dishonest.  If it were easy there would be a long list of Mutual Fund managers doing it consistently over a long period of time.  That list is pretty short and they write books. 

The reason it's tough for money managers is because of their size. They cannot get a large enough position without moving price up because of their large purchases.

The funds also need to be fully invested when sometimes going to cash i the right play.

Picking the stocks or strategy is the lesser part of the issue for them.

Does anyone really believe that their personal money doesn't beat the market?

I don't really know the answer to that question.  I can only assume the SEC makes their personal moves fairly transparent.  Personal purchases of the same stocks would border on insider trading given their influence on a stocks near-term movement.