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(08-29-2019, 11:53 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: (08-29-2019, 11:39 PM)vbin Wrote: If they got into cannibis and cracked vaoing, they might.
If and might are the key words there.
But the valuation is definitely getting interesting, I might have a deeper look at it during the weekend.
Pretty much everything is if and might in today's market,
what if Trump did this?
What if Chinese... ?
What if crash...?
What if quarterly...?
What if there is a war...?
What if interest rates...?
With these ifs and mights we look at historical context, valuation, numbers and future prospective. If there were no ifs and mights stock prices won't be fluctuating.
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(08-29-2019, 11:53 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: (08-29-2019, 11:39 PM)vbin Wrote: If they got into cannibis and cracked vaoing, they might.
If and might are the key words there.
But the valuation is definitely getting interesting, I might have a deeper look at it during the weekend.
Despite the recent news on vaping, it's huge world wide. I spent a few weeks in Europe and iQos is everywhere. I live in Japan now and it's everywhere here now. Granted anecdotal evidence isnt everything, but I firmly believe that the nicotine market isn't going anywhere anytime in my lifetime.
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(08-29-2019, 11:53 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: (08-29-2019, 11:39 PM)vbin Wrote: If they got into cannibis and cracked vaoing, they might.
If and might are the key words there.
But the valuation is definitely getting interesting, I might have a deeper look at it during the weekend.
MO is at a three year low. Define interesting please. 
I am plenty long and my MO share are a "hold". I'm not sure how to analyze this one. Pretty sure there is no top line growth for five + years. Earnings are down significantly during this period. Will they grow in other sub-industries faster than the regulatory issues will take it all away? I do believe MO management is solid. I believe the dividends will remain as high as possible. The whole industry has to invest their FCF in diversification, or give it back to shareholders that are losing their capital year after year. If they don't the money just becomes a target for politicians and jury verdicts at some point. It's great if you bought MO during the financial crisis, but you are still slowly giving back a huge gain.
Tobacco isn't going away, but the growth appears to be long gone. A pack of cigs or a can of snuff is now $10 in a lot of blue states. How in-elastic is demand? MO has endured their own recession during a bull market. I'm not exactly sure what happens to SP when a recession actually comes. There is a point where I average down, but we aren't there yet. Somebody convince me why it can't drop another 10-20% from here. Just trying to keep the MO love-fest on this forum real lol.
I read CFRA stock reports. They are about as good as any other for value stocks. Over the past year they have went all the way for Buy to Sell, and back to hold this week. This is not an easy one to call for sure.
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You all said the what if’s on many stocks last year that were at all time lows. And guess what?? Most of those are now hitting highs lol. Don’t buy APPL no new products..... Dis dead money..... TGT can’t compete with Amazon...blah blah blah. The Truth is no one knows.. Don’t assume. Companies innovate all the time, buy companies through acquisitions and do what they they need to create shareholder value. MO is no different. Cron and Jull are just 2 ways to gain growth. I’m sure a lot more is to come. Canabis is the way of the future. In the meantime I will take the 7% yield and wait it out., Most stocks are overvalued. However MO and PM are of great value here..
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08-30-2019, 07:42 AM
(This post was last modified: 08-30-2019, 07:42 AM by fenders53.)
(08-30-2019, 06:59 AM)stockguru Wrote: You all said the what if’s on many stocks last year that were at all time lows. And guess what?? Most of those are now hitting highs lol. Don’t buy APPL no new products..... Dis dead money..... TGT can’t compete with Amazon...blah blah blah. The Truth is no one knows.. Don’t assume. Companies innovate all the time, buy companies through acquisitions and do what they they need to create shareholder value. MO is no different. Cron and Jull are just 2 ways to gain growth. I’m sure a lot more is to come. Canabis is the way of the future. In the meantime I will take the 7% yield and wait it out., Most stocks are overvalued. However MO and PM are of great value here..
We have to assume. It's what we do, but that point has already been made. I was trying to wake somebody up. Good morning guru lol.
I'm looking pretty hard at PM, but it will probably be a short term put sale because I am cheap and like to get a get a couple more bucks off every purchase when I can.
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(08-30-2019, 06:59 AM)stockguru Wrote: You all said the what if’s on many stocks last year that were at all time lows. And guess what?? Most of those are now hitting highs lol. Don’t buy APPL no new products..... Dis dead money..... TGT can’t compete with Amazon...blah blah blah. The Truth is no one knows.. Don’t assume. Companies innovate all the time, buy companies through acquisitions and do what they they need to create shareholder value. MO is no different. Cron and Jull are just 2 ways to gain growth. I’m sure a lot more is to come. Canabis is the way of the future. In the meantime I will take the 7% yield and wait it out., Most stocks are overvalued. However MO and PM are of great value here..
I love a girl who isn't afraid to speaks up lol. You make some great points. I will even add, when the we go into a recession everyone will smoke and drink. So don't worry the growth will come back soon enough haha!!
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I'm interested for that reason. I really don't see a catalyst to drive the stock price up for a long time, but the downside is surely limited from here, even during a recession. It might look good if my AAPL drops 40%.
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(08-30-2019, 08:54 AM)fenders53 Wrote: I'm interested for that reason. I really don't see a catalyst to drive the stock price up for a long time, but the downside is surely limited from here, even during a recession. It might look good if my AAPL drops 40%.
That's exactly right Fenders. APPL and all these other high priced beta stocks will drop soon enough. Plus there will be no tariff deal. Its all talk and BS. China has no plans to come to an agreement. All those sin stocks will do very well in 2020. Better to early on a stock then late. And with a 7% yield those are exactly the kind of companies I want going forward. Enjoy your bottle of whisky and Marlboro's lol
crimsonghost747
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(08-30-2019, 05:05 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Define interesting please.
"Oh God, Oh God, we're all going to die"
(unrelated, but that is a pretty good definition)
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Just added more MO. I’m sure one day I’ll regret a MO buy, but I haven’t yet, and hoping it doesn’t start now!
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Followed the herd and bought more MO this morning. Also added to my SQ position.
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