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(08-19-2019, 05:23 AM)rayray Wrote: No Fenders, I'm okay! And I always appreciate your posts!
I believe there's many right ways to invest--it's just important to find one that fits.
I'm also impatient, usually or have in the past invested a bit too early, not that it was the wrong stock to buy but just a little too early! lol....That's why I've been waiting a little longer to buy something and I'm okay investing smaller amounts. Being a value investor tends to be painful at times, sometimes longer then I like but with time it usually works out.
Value investing may seem painful, but it's for sissies when you compare it to some of the other investing styles when the market turns against you for a few years.  As I've mentioned before, many of my opinions are jaded because I got crushed when the tech bubble popped. I actually missed half of the financial crisis pain because I employed some meaningful asset allocation for the first time ever. Then about 8 years of "all in" and I do mean all in.
As far as patience, I prove over and over that more often than not I jump a little early, whether in or out. In both directions so it just proves what we already know, that we can't time a top or bottom. Not in the market nor one stock. I used to use commissions as my excuse to make one move and be done with it. My commissions are $2 now so a nickel a share if I cut my trade size down. I think I can afford that lol.
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(08-17-2019, 05:23 PM)vbin Wrote: A bunch of folks here including me have bought ABBV recently. I have been giving it a good thought and would like to hear what folks think about 3 issues I see
1. Their debt
2. 50% of sales coming from Humira whose parents will expire soon.
3. Recent purchase of AGN
I'm curious on people's thoughts about ABBV, also.
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08-19-2019, 10:25 AM
(This post was last modified: 08-19-2019, 10:27 AM by fenders53.)
(08-19-2019, 09:22 AM)DividendGarden Wrote: (08-17-2019, 05:23 PM)vbin Wrote: A bunch of folks here including me have bought ABBV recently. I have been giving it a good thought and would like to hear what folks think about 3 issues I see
1. Their debt
2. 50% of sales coming from Humira whose parents will expire soon.
3. Recent purchase of AGN
I'm curious on people's thoughts about ABBV, also.
My thoughts are this is not a slam dunk. #2 is my biggest concern. Replacing a blockbuster drug is not automatic and that is why #3 occurred. ABBV inherited their aristocrat status from ABT so their inclusion i the club is meaningless to me. The political pharma hate-fest is just getting started with election coming.
Personally I want a position but not convinced it couldn't go lower. I want to enter as cheap as possible. I am selling puts and so far they expire worthless. I'll collect the premiums and keep doing it until I am forced in as low as possible. Just in case it turns out like PFE. I rode that dead horse for 15+ years waiting for a recovery. IMO ABBV is not a no brainer all will be surely well in a couple years proposition, though that is how DGI folks seem to regard it.
So I'm cautiously optimist or I wouldn't be trying to enter yet. I was amazed folks were interested a year ago. It seemed obvious to me it was a gamble. It looked like a yield trap to me. It looks better from here.
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Continued to build an initial position in OZK this morning.
crimsonghost747
Unregistered
Not a big fan of ABBV, though I haven't looked at it closely. Losing Humira patent is going to hurt, no matter what. I'm not too sure about this AGN acquisition either as they seem to have their own issues too. There are pharma plays out there with less risk.
Again, keeping up with the thread:
Bought LHX at the open.
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Big Pharma stocks seem to rotate turns getting taken out to the woodshed. I remember the 2000s, when LLY was deeply unloved. It has been one of my best-performing holdings of this decade. I prefer to own a broad basket of them, without having too much concentrated in any one holding.
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(08-19-2019, 10:25 AM)fenders53 Wrote: My thoughts are this is not a slam dunk. #2 is my biggest concern. Replacing a blockbuster drug is not automatic and that is why #3 occurred. ABBV inherited their aristocrat status from ABT so their inclusion i the club is meaningless to me. The political pharma hate-fest is just getting started with election coming.
Personally I want a position but not convinced it couldn't go lower. I want to enter as cheap as possible. I am selling puts and so far they expire worthless. I'll collect the premiums and keep doing it until I am forced in as low as possible. Just in case it turns out like PFE. I rode that dead horse for 15+ years waiting for a recovery. IMO ABBV is not a no brainer all will be surely well in a couple years proposition, though that is how DGI folks seem to regard it.
So I'm cautiously optimist or I wouldn't be trying to enter yet. I was amazed folks were interested a year ago. It seemed obvious to me it was a gamble. It looked like a yield trap to me. It looks better from here.
Selling puts is how I also got it this time. Had sold some put a day before ex-div so avg is approx ~$68 for me.
I agree with u that high possibility of further pullback and I am interested to add more below $60. You raised the same concern over HUMIRA but no one seems to justify that why it will be fine in couple of years. To me that's a big gray area post 2023 where I am trying to get clarity.
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(08-19-2019, 11:17 AM)Otter Wrote: Big Pharma stocks seem to rotate turns getting taken out to the woodshed. I remember the 2000s, when LLY was deeply unloved. It has been one of my best-performing holdings of this decade. I prefer to own a broad basket of them, without having too much concentrated in any one holding.
Agreed. JNJ,MRK,LLY, BMY,PFE,ABBV ... I'm sure I forgot somebody. You need about 4-5 of them it seems. I think they've all had their turn the past 20 years, and recovery can be slow. We are being no doubt being presented with some opportunities here, and much safer to spread it around some.
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08-19-2019, 01:23 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-19-2019, 01:24 PM by fenders53.)
(08-19-2019, 11:30 AM)vbin Wrote: (08-19-2019, 10:25 AM)fenders53 Wrote: My thoughts are this is not a slam dunk. #2 is my biggest concern. Replacing a blockbuster drug is not automatic and that is why #3 occurred. ABBV inherited their aristocrat status from ABT so their inclusion i the club is meaningless to me. The political pharma hate-fest is just getting started with election coming.
Personally I want a position but not convinced it couldn't go lower. I want to enter as cheap as possible. I am selling puts and so far they expire worthless. I'll collect the premiums and keep doing it until I am forced in as low as possible. Just in case it turns out like PFE. I rode that dead horse for 15+ years waiting for a recovery. IMO ABBV is not a no brainer all will be surely well in a couple years proposition, though that is how DGI folks seem to regard it.
So I'm cautiously optimist or I wouldn't be trying to enter yet. I was amazed folks were interested a year ago. It seemed obvious to me it was a gamble. It looked like a yield trap to me. It looks better from here.
Selling puts is how I also got it this time. Had sold some put a day before ex-div so avg is approx ~$68 for me.
I agree with u that high possibility of further pullback and I am interested to add more below $60. You raised the same concern over HUMIRA but no one seems to justify that why it will be fine in couple of years. To me that's a big gray area post 2023 where I am trying to get clarity.
Yes, the loss of Humira revenue is not news at all. I was a little surprised the stock held up this long. Like any pharma you are investing in the pipeline, or their financial ability to acquire one if necessary. ABBV doesn't need a home run at this price, but they need a number of new successful drugs the next few years.
You'll probably get a chance to pick up shares at 60 or lower. I've been selling puts in the $60-65 range for a while now. If I get enough shares I'd sell a covered call against some of them. It's an income stock for awhile.
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Any current thoughts on LMT? It's on my list and waiting for a small pullback to initiate a position. I own no defense contractors outside of mutuals and ETFs.
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I love LMT but the time to buy was a month ago when it was under $360. I just feel like your chasing up here now.
PE is 18.54 and the 5 year average is right around 21.
2.3% yield. (I would like to see that yield around 2.8+)
Price to book 37.69 (expensive)
107 Billion market cap
NOC a good one as well that has run a lot
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