The perfect 2019 port, a contest of sorts....

[Otter]

Short pick is TSLA

[Otter]

Is it cheating to short SVXY and essentially go long VIX?

[fenders53]

You can go long or short any common stock that pays a 1.5% div for the sake of simplicity. No derivatives or funds of any kind. You know I want to enter all my long positions selling puts but I am making that illegal lol.

[Otter]

Fair enough. If I have to short a dividend-payer, that rules out TSLA. I'll go with APU. I'd say high odds that they cut the dividend this year and stock price drops another 20-30%.

[fenders53]

Good point, TSLA off the list.  It's too easy to find a Nasdaq stock that ran 500% on hot air.  The Div rule makes it harder. Get bold and short an overvalued bluechip lol.

Is it obvious I am making this up as I go along lol?  I think this will be a fun thread if we revisit our initial stock premise every month or two.   We'll likely look brilliant and delusional along the way as the latest news pops. 

I am open to any suggestions for rules or additional pick opportunities.  I chose FEB 15 on purpose so we have time to sort it out.

[divmenow]

My picks

MDT, VLO, BA, AAPL and NEE

I think we should pick different stocks. No two people should be able to pick the same name.

[Otter]

(01-25-2019, 03:44 PM)divmenow Wrote: My picks

MDT, SWK, DAL, VLO and NEE

I think we should pick different stocks. No two people should be able to pick the same name.

If folks are playing to win, they will likely seek to pick different stocks. I'd think the odds of outperforming are slimmer if your portfolio looks a lot like the other contestants'

[fenders53]

(01-25-2019, 03:44 PM)divmenow Wrote: My picks

MDT, SWK, DAL, VLO and NEE

I think we should pick different stocks. No two people should be able to pick the same name. 

That would be easy if we were all in the same room picking stocks one by one like NFL owners draft the Heisman winner.    But we aren't so let's just work it out good enough.  Try not to make your entire port the forum fanboy list of T, MO, ABBV etc.  It will work out competitive enough as long as you don't have three identical stocks from somebody else's port.

[Kerim]

Love this idea!

I'm going with: AAPL, BUD, GOOG, MO, VER.

Personally, I don't think it harms the game if there is a fair bit of overlap among the portfolios. Each person has to strategize whether and how to stick with the herd or depart from it!

[fenders53]

OK, unless one of my favorite but overpriced stocks blows earnings the next few weeks and gets real cheap, here is what I am going with.

AAPL
HD
NEE
UPS
RQI

I am shorting HOG.

The short was the hardest pick. After the recent correction, 10 1/2 months is a LONG time to short a stock that pays a dividend. I like Otter's strategy, but unaware of many likely to cut their dividend. I don't see HOG running enough to wreck my port return.

[rayray]

Okay,

I like this!!

My quick pick 5 is but I might change before the dead line are

AAPL
XOM
MO
GILD
JNJ

Okay, the short was really hard so I'm going with a company that won't kill my pick 5 by going up too much

CPB


Edit: removed AOS (even though I like it a lot for accumulation--added GILD--for two years in a row I picked GILD, but this year I picked AAPL at Roadmap2Retire's contest)(removed ALB and added JNJ, same thing with ALB like it a lot) Trade wars, the wall, talks about 2020, uncertainty, I just think it's going to be a choppy year.

[jdhansen]

Here are my entries,

T, HSY, DWDP, ALLY, CAH

Interested to see how this goes, still working on figuring out if I'm evaluating these stock correctly.