12-03-2018, 09:13 PM
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What Did You Buy Today?
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12-04-2018, 10:18 AM
Jumped on the HD bandwagon and initiated a position. Current P/E is within spitting distance of the 10yr average earnings growth rate, and about 15% below the 10yr average P/E of 21.3. Doubt they can keep up the 25%+ dividend growth rate for much longer, but anticipate that it will see double-digit growth that well outpaces inflation for years to come.
12-04-2018, 10:57 AM
HD was a much better buy a few weeks ago under $170. I love HD as well, even with the housing market crashing!
Nobody is on the HD bandwagon like I am. My next shift starts at 4:30 lol. I'm that retired guy you see there working part-time.
HD will be OK, but I expect a trading range for a good while now that we've bounced. The DIY market is brisk and holiday sales seem to be on schedule. I'm only aware of local store sales trends of course. It's an incredibly well run retailer IMO. I've listened to the last few conference calls and I'm optimistic. HD will get beat up in a recession but it should be a solid LT position. I intend to max my position during the next meltdown, whenever that is.
As Mortimer Duke would say....
"Get those brokers back in here! Turn those machines back on" Its going to be a long rest of 2018. I'm buying Gold lol
12-06-2018, 11:03 AM
Even with today's drop (so far) S&P 500 still sporting a 21.67 trailing P/E. Just need a 27.4% drop, and we'll make it back to the historical mean.
12-06-2018, 11:32 AM
12-06-2018, 11:32 AM
(12-06-2018, 11:03 AM)Otter Wrote: Even with today's drop (so far) S&P 500 still sporting a 21.67 trailing P/E. Just need a 27.4% drop, and we'll make it back to the historical mean. That is one way to look at things but I'm not too sure if the sp500 p/e really means much nowadays. The 3 (by far) biggest ones in sp500. MSFT: pe 43.56 AAPL: pe 22.93 AMZN: pe 91.66 Looking at it, those 3 make up about 10% of the index. And their average pe is well over 50.... Back to the topic: bought a couple shares of RTN to finalize my position. (12-06-2018, 11:03 AM)Otter Wrote: Even with today's drop (so far) S&P 500 still sporting a 21.67 trailing P/E. Just need a 27.4% drop, and we'll make it back to the historical mean. Hey you're supposed to be cheering us up lol. If that 27.4% drop happens I am breaking out the "crash fund". It's tempting today but I know better. It's going to take a lot to get this market to move up for more than a week. Sold some new SO puts today. Bought back an HD 180 call for cheap just to get some loose funds in case this gets worse. I'd like to sell a MMM put but I'm skeered of industrials until the tariff noise is closer to resolved.
12-06-2018, 11:48 AM
(12-06-2018, 11:32 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote:(12-06-2018, 11:03 AM)Otter Wrote: Even with today's drop (so far) S&P 500 still sporting a 21.67 trailing P/E. Just need a 27.4% drop, and we'll make it back to the historical mean. A 27% drop from current levels would still be a relatively mild bear market compared to 2001 and 2008.
12-06-2018, 12:17 PM
Also nibbled at some additional T, WPC, and SQ today.
12-06-2018, 12:45 PM
(12-06-2018, 11:32 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote:(12-06-2018, 11:03 AM)Otter Wrote: Even with today's drop (so far) S&P 500 still sporting a 21.67 trailing P/E. Just need a 27.4% drop, and we'll make it back to the historical mean. PEs seem to mean next to nothing in the short-term on an S&P wide basis. And they are about worthless IMO without looking at many other variables. Back to the topic, sold a PFE put and picked up a few more shares of a utility ETF. Todays new investments are already up a few bucks and I am thinking I should buy whiskey and beer with my profits while I still can. |
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