What Did You Buy Today?

[divmenow]

AAPL will come back. The thing I don't like going forward is they are getting away from reporting iPhone sales. That was something I needed to see every quarter.

On another note there are still some good buyS in this market despite the run-up in recent weeks.

CVS, D, QCOM, BP, OXY, WSO, ABBV, ETN, AXP, HRS, AOS, CCL

I had a lot more on my list but they have run up too fast now lol

Those are my buy low candidates.

[DividendDragon]

(11-07-2018, 05:07 PM)divmenow Wrote: AAPL will come back. The thing I don't like going forward is they are getting away from reporting iPhone sales. That was something I needed to see every quarter.

On another note there are still some good buyS in this market despite the run-up in recent weeks.

CVS, D, QCOM, BP, OXY, WSO, ABBV, ETN, AXP, HRS, AOS, CCL

I had a lot more on my list but they have run up too fast now lol

Those are my buy low candidates.

Interesting take.

I actually like the move not to report unit numbers.

I don't think its that relevant as it becomes increasingly diversified - what matters is the revenue + margins from sales not the units.

Apple doesn't need to grow units, I never understand why people panic when there is a slight drop or missed expectation.

This is a good kick to the analysts and will help us all look at the long term and the things that are relevant.

[fenders53]

I think I can see merit in both sides of the argument.  Unit growth #s make it easier for analysts and investors to determine the near-term trajectory.   Whether true or not, APPL suddenly gives the impression they perhaps wish to hide a unit  growth problem they  see coming.  It does smell a little funny.  You can only play with phone prices and margins for so long  before a zero growth quarter happens for iphones.  The market will act like the sky is falling that day.  APPL has many other avenues of future growth and if you are actually investing, the company wide metrics are what matter longer term.  It's a trillion dollar company, so their performance will be put under a microscope one way or the other.  2019 may be a volatile year but I think I like how APPL looks in 5-10 years.   In my mind there are few  other places to hide if you want growth anyway.  If APPL, AMZN and a few other blue chips businesses stall, we'll be riding out a recession anyway.  APPL has a mountain of cash to ride out most any storm, and even acquire promising start-ups along the way.

[saimash]

Guys, what are your thoughts about investing in BUD... I had bought 50 shares @ 87.96 and it is down to nearly 74.5$ today (since they declared that they would cut dividends to offset the burden of their SAB Miller acquisition)... I was thinking of putting a Limit Order of $72.5 for 50 more shares to Dollar-cost-Avg... Would it be a STUPID decision to do that ?

[EricL]

(11-09-2018, 09:37 AM)saimash Wrote: Guys, what are your thoughts about investing in BUD... I had bought 50 shares @ 87.96 and it is down to nearly 74.5$ today (since they declared that they would cut dividends to offset the burden of their SAB Miller acquisition)... I was thinking of putting a Limit Order of $72.5 for 50 more shares to Dollar-cost-Avg... Would it be a STUPID decision to do that ?

Not a fan of BUD at all. They overpaid for SAB Miller and are getting killed by local micro-brews. 

Consumer's tastes are changing, I don't see much growth in the big brewers.

[fenders53]

What Eric says times 2 on BUD.  I love to average down when the stock drops and the story has not changed.  The story has indeed changed.

Added some APPL under $204 today. It's about 3% of my port now. That's probably about enough as it is over weighted in my mutuals and EFTs.

Any thoughts on BMY? They look interesting to me for the next few years. Earnings have been volatile the past few years but they have a promising pipeline and solid balance sheet. IMO not currently overvalued like most pharma. DIV is just over 3% while I wait. I think I have talked myself into it.

[crimsonghost747]

(11-09-2018, 09:45 AM)EricL Wrote:

(11-09-2018, 09:37 AM)saimash Wrote: Guys, what are your thoughts about investing in BUD... I had bought 50 shares @ 87.96 and it is down to nearly 74.5$ today (since they declared that they would cut dividends to offset the burden of their SAB Miller acquisition)... I was thinking of putting a Limit Order of $72.5 for 50 more shares to Dollar-cost-Avg... Would it be a STUPID decision to do that ?

Not a fan of BUD at all. They overpaid for SAB Miller and are getting killed by local micro-brews. 

Consumer's tastes are changing, I don't see much growth in the big brewers.

Can't comment on BUD as a company or their acquisition since I haven't been following.

But I do agree with the opinion that big breweries are going to face some tough times. People want different types of beer, maybe not as their "regular" one but they will buy new and different ones to try out. If they choose to go with a few different beers from smaller breweries even 1 time out of 5 when they are in the store, that's a lot of revenue loss for the big brewers.

And this trend could be just starting in the states. I'm visiting now and I just walked into a Publix yesterday... the selection of "special beer" was.. appalling. There are places in Europe where a tiny local grocery store in a 2000 person village has a beer selection 10 times better than I find in a relatively large grocery store in the middle of the city here. And 10 times might be an understatement.

(yes I know Publix is not THE place to go for beer. It was just close by. But it's a pretty close comparison since a tiny grocery store wouldn't be your number one option in Europe either.)

[divmenow]

The only way bud survives is by acquiring one of the big cannabis companies. There's just too much competition in the space of beer and it will continue to squeeze margins. And with the dividend being cut that just says the company isn't too confident going forward; not to mention all the debt they have on their books. I just think there are way better buys in this market then BUD no matter how cheap it may look.

[fenders53]

I am preaching to myself as much as anyone else here but I really feel we have to look at the consumer non-durables with eyes wide open. When I was young it was just inconceivable to think a brand like Coke, Heinz, Anheuser-Busch, Miller, Phillips Morris, Colgate, Kelloggs or even Proctor & Gamble could be anything short of dominant in their industry in my lifetime. EVERYTHING changes when the margins come under pressure. These are the stocks we are attracted to because of their reliable dividends. GE, ATT and Sears were also no-brainers. I'm no longer so confident even five years forward. I am keeping my bets small in any company that doesn't have a significant moat to defend their turf. We collectively seem to be good about diversification and I think that is going to be FAR more important going forward. It's clear the ability to afford national advertising is nowhere near enough. Finding the dominant companies of 2030 now is our challenge.

[divmenow]

(11-10-2018, 11:13 AM)fenders53 Wrote: I am preaching to myself as much as anyone else here but I really feel we have to look at the consumer non-durables with eyes wide open.  When I was young it was just inconceivable to think a brand like Coke, Heinz, Anheuser-Busch, Miller, Phillips Morris,  Colgate, Kelloggs or even Proctor & Gamble could be anything short of dominant in their industry in my lifetime.  EVERYTHING changes when the margins come under pressure.  These are the stocks we are attracted to because of their reliable dividends.  GE, ATT and Sears were also no-brainers.  I'm no longer so confident even five years forward.  I am keeping my bets small in any company that doesn't have a significant moat  to defend their turf.  We collectively seem to be good about diversification and I think that is going to be FAR more important going forward.  It's clear the ability to afford national advertising is nowhere near enough.   Finding the dominant companies of 2030 now is our challenge.

Well said and your 100% accurate. Times have sure changed. No one wants the boring names or brands who's growth has continue to slow. Everyone these days wants tech and the high flyers. The FANG ect. That's where all the growth is. At the same time those high beta growth stock are the first to go down big when the market corrects, but the first to recover when it goes up. But you still have to own some of those boring high yield stock. Just not overweight in them. 

I will never own T in my portfolio. Just too much debt and the dividend even at 6% isn't enough to move it up over time. It has done nothing in the last 5 years.  I much prefer VZ which is why I own that.  KO, BUD, HNZ, CL, K I don't own either. PEP I do because of the market shares and snack food. This is why I prefer names like AEP, D and XEL. You get better dividends then consumer stocks and everyone needs electric so have no choice lol

My investments have always been will this company be around in 10 years and who is there competition. AAPL, HD, BA, CVX, JNJ, D, MA, PEP, MCD and UNH are my top holdings. Some I have owned since 1990. I try and buy high quality over names that only pay a good yield.

[fenders53]

(11-10-2018, 01:18 PM)divmenow Wrote:

(11-10-2018, 11:13 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

Well said and your 100% accurate. Times have sure changed. No one wants the boring names or brands who's growth has continue to slow. Everyone these days wants tech and the high flyers. The FANG ect. That's where all the growth is. At the same time those high beta growth stock are the first to go down big when the market corrects, but the first to recover when it goes up. But you still have to own some of those boring high yield stock. Just not overweight in them. 

I will never own T in my portfolio. Just too much debt and the dividend even at 6% isn't enough to move it up over time. It has done nothing in the last 5 years.  I much prefer VZ which is why I own that.  KO, BUD, HNZ, CL, K I don't own either. PEP I do because of the market shares and snack food. This is why I prefer names like AEP, D and XEL. You get better dividends then consumer stocks and everyone needs electric so have no choice lol

My investments have always been will this company be around in 10 years and who is there competition. AAPL, HD, BA, CVX, JNJ, D, MA, PEP, MCD and UNH are my top holdings. Some I have owned since 1990. I try and buy high quality over names that only pay a good yield.

[quote pid='15495' dateline='1541873889']

You just listed about 7 of my core holdings in your top holdings.    Anyone else that wants to jump into this conversation please do whether you agree or not.   I think it's important we discuss it and not lead a 20yr old down the wrong path.   

I am OK with the high yielders in moderation but I have free time to game them.  Especially KHC.  Own a hundred shares and collect the DIV.  Sell a put and a call most every month when it swings a few bucks up and down.  I'm "cashing" 2-3 checks a month on KHC and the share price is rarely more expensive than I paid for it.  Just a conservative income game that works well on a high yielder not in free fall.  The not in free fall part is important.    I wouldn't feel comfortable owning 1000 shares of most old school consumer durable stocks. 

Most of us here seem to like the utilities, but I wouldn't advise anybody to load up the truck if they were starting a port today as they are historically expensive and the FED almost certainly raising rates.  Some have PEs similar to tech stocks.  I will continue to average into them as I fatten the positions up. With some patience I absolutely agree utes are superior to consumer non-durables on a risk/reward basis.  If a ute gets in trouble and cuts the DIV, they'll apply for a rate hike and the DIV will be back soon.  With some patience I absolutely agree utes are superior to consumer non-durables on a risk/reward basis.  I think back to an investment club I was a member of 25 years ago.  All extremely solid companies, and mostly consumer non-durables.  By the time you subtract the losers I doubt the port outperformed utilities.  I really only feel compelled to own most of those stocks after a very severe market correction, not when they drop simply because they are struggling, which is becoming too common.  They've been overpriced for most of my investing career.              
    
[/quote]

[DividendDragon]

(11-10-2018, 05:48 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(11-10-2018, 01:18 PM)divmenow Wrote: Well said and your 100% accurate. Times have sure changed. No one wants the boring names or brands who's growth has continue to slow. Everyone these days wants tech and the high flyers. The FANG ect. That's where all the growth is. At the same time those high beta growth stock are the first to go down big when the market corrects, but the first to recover when it goes up. But you still have to own some of those boring high yield stock. Just not overweight in them. 

I will never own T in my portfolio. Just too much debt and the dividend even at 6% isn't enough to move it up over time. It has done nothing in the last 5 years.  I much prefer VZ which is why I own that.  KO, BUD, HNZ, CL, K I don't own either. PEP I do because of the market shares and snack food. This is why I prefer names like AEP, D and XEL. You get better dividends then consumer stocks and everyone needs electric so have no choice lol

My investments have always been will this company be around in 10 years and who is there competition. AAPL, HD, BA, CVX, JNJ, D, MA, PEP, MCD and UNH are my top holdings. Some I have owned since 1990. I try and buy high quality over names that only pay a good yield.

[quote pid='15495' dateline='1541873889']

You just listed about 7 of my core holdings in your top holdings.    Anyone else that wants to jump into this conversation please do whether you agree or not.   I think it's important we discuss it and not lead a 20yr old down the wrong path.   

I am OK with the high yielders in moderation but I have free time to game them.  Especially KHC.  Own a hundred shares and collect the DIV.  Sell a put and a call most every month when it swings a few bucks up and down.  I'm "cashing" 2-3 checks a month on KHC and the share price is rarely more expensive than I paid for it.  Just a conservative income game that works well on a high yielder not in free fall.  The not in free fall part is important.    I wouldn't  feel comfortable owning 1000 shares of most old school consumer durable stocks. 

Most of us here seem to like the utilities, but I wouldn't advise anybody to load up the truck if they were starting a port today as they are historically expensive and the FED almost certainly raising rates.  Some have PEs similar to tech stocks.  I will continue to average into them as I fatten the positions up.  With some patience I absolutely agree utes are superior to consumer non-durables on a risk/reward basis.  If a ute gets in trouble and cuts the DIV, they'll apply for a rate hike and the DIV will be back soon.  With some patience I absolutely agree utes are superior to consumer non-durables on a risk/reward basis.  I think back to an investment club I was a member of 25 years ago.  All extremely solid companies, and mostly consumer non-durables.  By the time you subtract the losers I doubt the port outperformed utilities.  I really only feel compelled to own most of those stocks after a very severe market correction, not when they drop simply because they are struggling, which is becoming too common.  They've been overpriced for most of my investing career.              
    

[/quote]

I'm 25 and started out buying heavily based around a stock's dividend. I have now switched mostly to business perspective investing.

I  own some the classic dividend stocks - JNJ, PG, MCD, XOM, MO, AFL, CAH, ULVR along with MSFT, DIS, SBUX, V and AAPL less pure dividend plays.

The rest of my portfolio contains growth orientated companies that I feel have large economic moats and have the ability to generate a lot of free cash with modest capital input. I am aware that many of these, especially the Chinese holdings, are risky but over the long term they should do well.

These include - ADBE,  BABA, FB, TECHY (down heavily on this one!)

I feel balance is important but am very sceptical of capital intensive businesses like utilities and automakers. I like businesses that can make a lot off very little capital as opposed to businesses that can make a little from very heavy capital input. This is why I have stayed away from T for example.

Maybe this approach would be of help to investors?

Don't go all in low-growth div stocks but don't think you're going to become rich by piling money purely into tech stocks either.