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01-17-2019, 10:14 AM
(This post was last modified: 01-17-2019, 12:09 PM by fenders53.)
I think most of us agree Otter. A nice mix of true growth companiess should pay off, even if the dividend is choppy because they are a little cyclical like BA, AAPL etc. I never thought I would look at MSFT, AAPL and CSCO as div stocks when they started paying a token dividend. I see a LOT of aristocrats that are destined for token DIV growth merely because they have to stay on the list or their share price will be punished. I don't own CVS but paying down debt is wise right now. The Aetna move was wise. I wondered if they would be more AMZN road kill otherwise.
I am putting together a small assortment of very high div stocks. That's really tricky to do without grabbing too much risk. Some small REITs will be in the mix. Perhaps one MLP but I am gun shy on anything oil that isn't huge. I think T and RQI will be the first entries in this small port. My T position is not exactly small though. I guess it will be my core gamble in this port.
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I've used play money for high yield in the past. STWD has been kind to me, but honestly, I don't understand their mREIT business model. It's just too damn complicated.
UNIT is also fun, if you really want to gamble.
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01-17-2019, 12:23 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-17-2019, 12:25 PM by fenders53.)
I am trying to understand them more thoroughly. As I am sure you are aware, it's a completely different game. You can;t evaluate them like a DGI stock, or even an ordinary growth stock. Many classifications of REITs are required to distribute 90% of profits by law. That is why the Divs are crazy good. EPS doesn't really matter much as long as they can pay the dividend and operating expenses. If they want to truly grow they leverage. The quality REITs are well managed and know what they can get by with in a downturn. The true gambles over-leveraged and offer an insane dividend you'll surely give back in share price if you are caught holding in a real estate downturn. I am looking for higher div REITs that maintained a somewhat stable SP. I'll share my high div port when it's close to assembled. It won't be a large percentage of my port for sure. The great REITs you can buy and forget "like O" are clearly overvalued now. That buying opportunity will come with patience.
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Bought M. It's now at a 6 pe and 6% dividend. Cant beat that.
Also took a position in MDT
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(01-17-2019, 12:23 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I am trying to understand them more thoroughly. As I am sure you are aware, it's a completely different game. You can;t evaluate them like a DGI stock, or even an ordinary growth stock. Many classifications of REITs are required to distribute 90% of profits by law. That is why the Divs are crazy good. EPS doesn't really matter much as long as they can pay the dividend and operating expenses. If they want to truly grow they leverage. The quality REITs are well managed and know what they can get by with in a downturn. The true gambles over-leveraged and offer an insane dividend you'll surely give back in share price if you are caught holding in a real estate downturn. I am looking for higher div REITs that maintained a somewhat stable SP. I'll share my high div port when it's close to assembled. It won't be a large percentage of my port for sure. The great REITs you can buy and forget "like O" are clearly overvalued now. That buying opportunity will come with patience.
Traditional REITs I can handle pretty well. Am happily invested in FRT, O, NNN, WPC, BPY, and SKT (roughly ordered as I see it from most reliable to most risky when it comes to long-term dividend safety). It's the mREITs that give me heartburn. STWD has a particularly convoluted and complicated business model that relies on a varied stream of lending activities and buying/selling commercial paper and mortgage-backed securities. I tried wading through an entire SeekingAlpha deep-dive on them at one point, and it was pure gibberish as far as I could discern. Bought them on a whim with a small stake several years ago when it was selling for $18 and change, and sporting a 12% yield, and sold out about a year ago when I decided that businesses I couldn't understand weren't for me, and that focusing on quality in the portfolio was a better move than playing with high yield.
UNIT was a bit different. I happened across a Law360 article about the Aurelius/Windstream (WIN) lawsuit, and took a look at the pleadings. Aurelius claims looked pretty weak (to me), so I took a position in UNIT (spun off from WIN, and largely reliant on WIN for revenue from a lease agreement). Enjoyed the double-digit yields for a while, and the volatile price action was fun, but I eventually sold that position as well. Same quality vs. gambling decision.
At this point, SQ is my only straight-up gamble that doesn't pay me quarterly to wait.
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01-17-2019, 11:28 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-17-2019, 11:35 PM by fenders53.)
Traditional REITs I can handle pretty well. Am happily invested in FRT, O, NNN, WPC, BPY, and SKT (roughly ordered as I see it from most reliable to most risky when it comes to long-term dividend safety). It's the mREITs that give me heartburn. STWD has a particularly convoluted and complicated business model that relies on a varied stream of lending activities and buying/selling commercial paper and mortgage-backed securities. I tried wading through an entire SeekingAlpha deep-dive on them at one point, and it was pure gibberish as far as I could discern. Bought them on a whim with a small stake several years ago when it was selling for $18 and change, and sporting a 12% yield, and sold out about a year ago when I decided that businesses I couldn't understand weren't for me, and that focusing on quality in the portfolio was a better move than playing with high yield.
UNIT was a bit different. I happened across a Law360 article about the Aurelius/Windstream (WIN) lawsuit, and took a look at the pleadings. Aurelius claims looked pretty weak (to me), so I took a position in UNIT (spun off from WIN, and largely reliant on WIN for revenue from a lease agreement). Enjoyed the double-digit yields for a while, and the volatile price action was fun, but I eventually sold that position as well. Same quality vs. gambling decision.
At this point, SQ is my only straight-up gamble that doesn't pay me quarterly to wait.
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The many forms of raising capital are what confuse me with smallish REITs. And the trading of high yield/high risk commercial paper. Some borrowing methods are far riskier than others, and I don't want my dividend to be the tenth priority when things get though which is inevitable. Learned that lesson with smaller oil stocks. Total debt to equity is straight forward enough, but there is more to the story if you don't have a strong background in corporate finance. My BA in marketing and ECON is insufficient
I have zero straight up gambles in my port at this time. I'll be content to find some 7-8% yields that aren't insanely risky. Real Estate and finance are about the only options other than oil MLPs. To my knowledge anyway.
And SQ may be a rough ride but I like your chances for a gamble pick if you figure out which month or quarter to lighten up.
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Bought my first ever gold stock today. NEM. I really liked the acquisition and this stock for 2019 and beyond. It's best in breed. Anyone else own any gold? It's a good hedge.
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01-18-2019, 12:23 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-18-2019, 12:28 PM by fenders53.)
(01-18-2019, 10:41 AM)divmenow Wrote: Bought my first ever gold stock today. NEM. I really liked the acquisition and this stock for 2019 and beyond. It's best in breed. Anyone else own any gold? It's a good hedge.
I don't, and I never have, but done properly it's not a bad idea IMO. I feel like I need a specific plan though. A 5% gold position isn't going to accomplish anything materially different than holding a bit of cash if you are extremely deep in "normal" stocks otherwise. This would actually be a good separate thread if you are up for some conversation. I have some close friends that are deep into "Armegeddon gold and silver investing".
And I can't find a damn thing I am compelled to buy this week. I guess that is a good thing as we recover from our recent beat down. My AMZN is finally up as I slowly bought into the decline for months. Feel like I am the only person in the world that had to wait until now to be up on AMZN.
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(01-18-2019, 12:23 PM)fenders53 Wrote: (01-18-2019, 10:41 AM)divmenow Wrote: Bought my first ever gold stock today. NEM. I really liked the acquisition and this stock for 2019 and beyond. It's best in breed. Anyone else own any gold? It's a good hedge.
I don't, and I never have, but done properly it's not a bad idea IMO. I feel like I need a specific plan though. A 5% gold position isn't going to accomplish anything materially different than holding a bit of cash if you are extremely deep in "normal" stocks otherwise. This would actually be a good separate thread if you are up for some conversation. I have some close friends that are deep into "Armegeddon gold and silver investing".
And I can't find a damn thing I am compelled to buy this week. I guess that is a good thing as we recover from our recent beat down. My AMZN is finally up as I slowly bought into the decline for months. Feel like I am the only person in the world that had to wait until now to be up on AMZN.
I think D and CVS are good buys right now if your looking for for some names.
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01-18-2019, 01:09 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-18-2019, 01:11 PM by fenders53.)
(01-18-2019, 12:34 PM)divmenow Wrote: (01-18-2019, 12:23 PM)fenders53 Wrote: (01-18-2019, 10:41 AM)divmenow Wrote: Bought my first ever gold stock today. NEM. I really liked the acquisition and this stock for 2019 and beyond. It's best in breed. Anyone else own any gold? It's a good hedge.
I don't, and I never have, but done properly it's not a bad idea IMO. I feel like I need a specific plan though. A 5% gold position isn't going to accomplish anything materially different than holding a bit of cash if you are extremely deep in "normal" stocks otherwise. This would actually be a good separate thread if you are up for some conversation. I have some close friends that are deep into "Armegeddon gold and silver investing".
And I can't find a damn thing I am compelled to buy this week. I guess that is a good thing as we recover from our recent beat down. My AMZN is finally up as I slowly bought into the decline for months. Feel like I am the only person in the world that had to wait until now to be up on AMZN.
I think D and CVS are good buys right now if your looking for for some names.
Funny you should mention D. Over 90% of my 18JAN put sales are ending very happily today. D did not make the list as I jumped early. I now think D bottoms mid 60s for a great return in the mid term. But I sold some puts during utility euphoria at $72.50 and just now had to roll them forward a month. I'm upside down about $4 per share so I am upside down for the near future. Just have to keep grabbing some time value and make my entry. I D timing was bad. I can't win them all lol. If D drops a few more dollars I'll just buy some shares on the side while I ride out the put game. For now I just wait for it to stabilize. That dividend yield is already sweet and it seems fairly safe.
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Bought some D and VFC for my kids college accounts this morning.
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01-18-2019, 01:55 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-18-2019, 01:56 PM by fenders53.)
You guys talked me into. Just sold a FEB 15 D put at $67.50 strike. That would make my entry basis $66.60. I can live with that if D falls further.
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