09-28-2020, 08:40 PM
(09-28-2020, 05:12 PM)vbin Wrote: There is no long term bull on oil. Unless these companies transform into renewable.
In short term(10-20) years. The oil will still do well.
That's my opinion as well. I'm sure you remember I got beat up on BP on the last major ride down. Then they announce they are "going green". It sounded good but the SP has suffered anyway. Just a PR stunt for now. Am I supposed to believe they will out compete the renewables companies that have been learning the ropes and innovating for 10+ years.
I think oil has a modest place even 50 years from now. It's just the excessive supply issue. In days gone by these inefficient producers would be gone. Sure some went BK lately, but not nearly enough. Give it three years, and some event will spike oil prices for a few months. Some new stupid spec money will drill-baby-drill and wreck it.
It's just a trade. Let a new wave of Covid crash world oil demand and I might add some. (That seems quite possible) If I don't catch the true bottom with half my position, almost anything with a sound balance sheet, or any growth outperforms my oil trade after a year or two. Doesn't mean you can't get lucky and catch a 5pt+ run. Somebody will time it right.