04-23-2020, 03:15 PM
(04-23-2020, 02:56 PM)fenders53 Wrote:(04-23-2020, 02:39 PM)Otter Wrote:And I missed the world economy shutting down in 2016. You got a link for that? J/K but I really was trading the hell out of industrials off the March lows while you were hiding in your CV-19 bomb shelter counting your SPY put profits. Industrials are way up their bottom for the most part and I didn't miss it.(04-23-2020, 02:02 PM)fenders53 Wrote:(04-23-2020, 01:55 PM)divmenow Wrote: I’m still finding bargainsThere are definitely some bargains. There are also a bunch of companies staying very quiet. There will be a few bombs dropped from good companies the next few weeks as earnings progress. I am definitely keeping some of my powder dry.
Got in PSA today. There seems to be good support around 195. There balance sheet is prestine...one of the best i've found to be honest. I'm concerned about the double top pattern it has formed on the 5 year chart, but it's down considerably from the highs.
If I've done any over-reacting it would be industrials. I have trimmed a lot of them to almost nothing waiting for somebody to wreck the mood. I know who I suspect will have bad news but we'll see what happens.
Industrials have been one of my main buy areas. The sector as a whole is trading at 2016 pricing.
Have picked up AOS, CMI, EMR, GD, HON, MMM, and UPS the past few days.
I don't see much of anything industrial I don't think I can get for a similar or better price after earnings. If not I'll buy something else. This is what makes a market of course.
I look at it more as whether approximately two quarters of severely depressed economic activity in the industrial sector knocks us back four years in terms of what future earnings look like afterwards, even if the afterwards isn't as rosy as January, 2020.
Take AOS for instance. It has the second-highest Chowder number of any Dividend Aristocrat, and it's not because of their base yield of 2.5%. 0.15 Debt/Equity ratio, 43% payout ratio, and 26 years of dividend growth, priced at levels not seen in four years. When hot water heaters break down, people replace them.