(08-19-2019, 11:30 AM)vbin Wrote:Yes, the loss of Humira revenue is not news at all. I was a little surprised the stock held up this long. Like any pharma you are investing in the pipeline, or their financial ability to acquire one if necessary. ABBV doesn't need a home run at this price, but they need a number of new successful drugs the next few years.(08-19-2019, 10:25 AM)fenders53 Wrote: My thoughts are this is not a slam dunk. #2 is my biggest concern. Replacing a blockbuster drug is not automatic and that is why #3 occurred. ABBV inherited their aristocrat status from ABT so their inclusion i the club is meaningless to me. The political pharma hate-fest is just getting started with election coming.
Personally I want a position but not convinced it couldn't go lower. I want to enter as cheap as possible. I am selling puts and so far they expire worthless. I'll collect the premiums and keep doing it until I am forced in as low as possible. Just in case it turns out like PFE. I rode that dead horse for 15+ years waiting for a recovery. IMO ABBV is not a no brainer all will be surely well in a couple years proposition, though that is how DGI folks seem to regard it.
So I'm cautiously optimist or I wouldn't be trying to enter yet. I was amazed folks were interested a year ago. It seemed obvious to me it was a gamble. It looked like a yield trap to me. It looks better from here.
Selling puts is how I also got it this time. Had sold some put a day before ex-div so avg is approx ~$68 for me.
I agree with u that high possibility of further pullback and I am interested to add more below $60. You raised the same concern over HUMIRA but no one seems to justify that why it will be fine in couple of years. To me that's a big gray area post 2023 where I am trying to get clarity.
You'll probably get a chance to pick up shares at 60 or lower. I've been selling puts in the $60-65 range for a while now. If I get enough shares I'd sell a covered call against some of them. It's an income stock for awhile.