08-15-2019, 10:27 PM
(08-15-2019, 11:28 AM)vbin Wrote: In my opinion whatever you buy, keep enough powder for later, high probability for things to get ugly post 2020 and as others mentioned high probability for oil to drop further, I bought bunch in XOM based on buy and hold strategy, but I could have got it $3-$4 cheaper per stock. That can make a difference in long run. We never know if market is going to go up or down but atleast now I knew it aswll that there is a good probability that oil will fall further and conditions are volatile.Of course it makes a huge difference if we can enter all our stocks $3-4 cheaper. That implies we can time the macro market and that requires some luck. I bought XOM about $8 ago so I'm not so smart, but I am OK with holding it, dividends and covered calls. I'd be a helluva lot happier if I started doing that today with a better entry. I win some I lose some. Until a month ago I thought there would be a trade deal.
Easier to type than actually do, but when the market is skittish for good reason, I try to evaluate the cost of waiting when a stock is falling. Is it more likely to trend downward than it is to launch higher so fast I can't get in next week? Most of the stocks on my watch list are likely to go sideways at best. A one day stock drop you can't miss out on is actually pretty rare. Being patient is tough but most sectors have a great deal of uncertainty right now. We'll find some true bargains if things don't dramatically improve.
It's amazing how the market can easily move 2-3% in a day, on news that can be easily reversed tomorrow with a not so well thought out comment from a world leader or the FED.