08-08-2019, 08:44 AM
(08-08-2019, 02:03 AM)fenders53 Wrote:(08-06-2019, 08:46 AM)Otter Wrote: From the limited perspective of the stock market (not taking into account all of the other negative effects, such as layoffs), pre-recession periods are essentially Prime Day for stocks. Get quality stuff at a value that you are happy with. You will never buy in at the absolute bottom. People who bought at the pre-2008 peak were in pretty good shape a decade after the worst recession since 1929. Aristocrats with solid balance sheets are likely to keep increasing their dividends year-on-year. The sky isn't falling, but a sale might be in the works.
They are definitely good for long-term investing. Invest on the way down and back up. You have to put yourself in a position to continue adding more shares though. You'll catch some at and very near the bottom which is good enough.
What's going on now is not recessionary though. It's a bit of a circus and an intra-day roller coaster ride like I haven't seen lately. Most of my port is not supposed to oscillate 10% in a week or so, but some of it does.. That was never my plan lol.
The pronounced 3mo/10yr yield-curve inversion is typically pre-recessionary. If past performance of that indicator is any measure, I suspect we will be in a recession by 2Q 2020. Market typically begins its drop before the recession is formally declared.
There's always a bear market somewhere, though. Right now it appears to be tobacco stocks and healthcare stocks with exposure to the opioid/medicare for all headlines. My buy list just gets bigger during recessions.