What Did You Buy Today?

[fenders53]

(02-12-2019, 12:55 PM)Otter Wrote:

(02-12-2019, 12:36 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(02-12-2019, 12:23 PM)Otter Wrote:

(02-12-2019, 11:58 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(02-12-2019, 11:42 AM)Otter Wrote: I have done this in my 401k, which is 90% ultrashort bond fund at the moment. The DGI stuff in taxable accounts I just allow to keep doing their thing.

Vanguard ultra-short bond fund is where I have been hiding my Div and options selling premiums.  Money I may choose to use in 2022-23.  The fund's yield is pretty much a given but I sure never expected the share price to rise like it has lately.  My very high div stocks are flying too.  The market may be running but people are scared IMO.

I went heavy into the ultrashort funds at the end of last August. Just saw this article on SA:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3432192-in...-bear-baml

Love the bullet-point for "contrarian buy signal." Gotta reel in the retail suckers for the blowoff top. However high that top may be, I can't see the risk/reward being anywhere close to 2009-2017 gains for whatever remaining time there is in this historically long bull market. Happy to leave my 401k assets in cash equivalents on the sideline and find a better buy-in point than S&P 500 P/E and Shiller P/E ratios that are near historic highs.

Yeah , who knows how high it goes.  If I was 25yrs old I wouldn't care and that served me very well.  A young person should keep a little cash on hand so he can buy the inevitable deals though.  This market could run 50% more, but I doubt it, and not willing to wait ten years to break even on stocks purchased now at clearly high valuations.  Not buying much until the market pulls back some.  If that is next month then great.  There are stocks out there in the buy range now, but the list is very short.  It seems obvious that politics and the world economy will keep the market volatile enough to find some buys while we wait IMO.

I'm rapidly approaching 40, and hopefully "retired" at around 50 (don't intend to lay-around, but doing self-directed work on my own time is the goal). Intent is to then start laddering a portion of traditional IRA funds to Roth once income drops, prior to being able to withdraw from traditional at 59.5 without penalty. 

So, my risk tolerance has dropped for the 401k nest egg. Even a three-year peak-trough-peak interlude could have a negative impact on that plan that costs years of time. Sure, maybe returns are higher if I leave everything in a mix of low-fee equity index funds, but I just don't see the risk/reward there, and was happy to remain fully invested in equity index funds for the entirety of 2009-2017 (even when there were lots of prior "market overvaluation" calls by multiple pundits during that period). 

Then again, the best laid plans of mice and men . . .

My financial plan was to retire at 53 and I have a 25yr old piece of paper to prove it.    I made it happen for three years and marked off some of my bucket list lol.  Now back to work at least part-time so I can stay out of the IRAs until I can get them without the massive penalty for early withdrawal.  It mostly worked out and I am happy, surely better off than most. My daughter turned out to be a little more expensive than I planned and I need to work a few years. She is 22 and she is supposed to be free now lol. Like you said, the best laid plans....