11-16-2018, 11:03 AM
(11-15-2018, 08:36 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Not sure T is on my 10 year hold list but they don't worry me too much right now. I'm confident they "get it" that debt has to be addressed. Eric regards it as a utility and I think he's not off base. But we got a chance it runs 20%+ if they get it mostly right and the DIV is ridiculous while we wait. I have good stocks getting beat up worse than T. HD comes to mind. Down like $35 and absolutely executing. Just reported earning and YOY growth rates and same store sales look amazing for a huge retailer. Mister market don't care but he'll notice some week soon IMO. After this beating I can't think of a much better retailer to own through upcoming holiday season.
I have a hard time buying consumer discretionary at the moment. Maybe consumer confidence and spending stays at highs, but I just get uneasy thinking that we are at the top part of the cycle for those stocks. They tend to unwind really fast/steep to the downside once market sentiment shifts. Was happy buying TGT last summer in the 50s, but only view it as a hold now. WMT looks way overpriced at the moment.
Have quite a few on my shopping list for the next down-cycle, when all the headlines are doom & gloom, speculating that Amazon will put all other retailers out of business, or that consumers are tapped out and no one will ever shop or be extended credit again. Once those single-digit trailing P/E ratios arrive, I'm in. If everything goes to zero like the clickbait headlines during those times like to suggest, I figure I'll have bigger problems than just my portfolio.