What Did You Buy Today?

[divmenow]

(03-23-2021, 08:51 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I was about half done building a TSM position.  AMD doesn't fab chips.  That takes big capital they don't have.  The world needs more capacity.  Coming out of a recession and scores of companies can't  get chips.  Auto companies with lines shut down etc.  Seems crazy that could happen.  5G will make the shortages worse as more devices are in use.  If semi stocks aren't a decent investment  now we should just give up lol.

EDIT- if I am wrong about AMD please correct me.  I was under the impression they spent 25 years trying to dethrone INTC because they had trouble competing with their ability to fab in mass qty before they forgot how to execute on the cutting edge tech.

AMD is the clear winner over INTC. I'm in the computer industry and actually build quite a few gaming PC's weekly. AMD chips are in high demand especially the AMD Ryzen 7 and radeon chips which is what I use. INTC has fallen way behind the industry in recent years. Things have changed in the industry which is why I own NVDA, AMD and TSM and nor INTC LOL. I won't get in specifics  but this link shares a lot of my thoughts. 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/09/3...-vs-intel/

[divmenow]

(03-23-2021, 09:12 PM)fenders53 Wrote: On another subject I tried to do some DD on EV battery trends and associated raw materials.  Sounds like there will be a rush to mine everything as new battery types evolve in a hurry.  Maybe CAT is going to $500 after all.  

If DE can almost reach $400 and then CAT surely can reach those levels as well 

I haven't bought CAT, but its on my watch list if we get under $200

[fenders53]

I traded it several times last year and of course a hold would have been better. Great company but it is as cyclical as it gets and the PE is really getting out of range before they even peak earnings. No idea how high it goes if infrastructure bills come to fruition. I know I wouldn't buy and hold a lot of $250+ shares. You will be sad in a couple years. Same with Deere. That's the downside to being awarded a tech stock PE.

My crystal ball says your price target has decent risk reward because I know you are smart enough to bail if the investment thesis starts looking shaky. We have no clue what bill passes. They might build bridges, windmills, inner city housing, or next to nothing.

[fenders53]

Just saw the AMD link.  I know they are doing well.  I was commenting on the new chip fab plants.  It matters to TSM and INTC.  AMD not so much if they remain high end chip designers.  I wasn't bashing them at all.  They have come a long way.

I actually owned AMD 20+ yrs ago.  INTC smashed competitors like a bug before FTC put a leash on them finally.  INTC and MSFT were brutal and got by with it for a long time.

[divmenow]

(03-23-2021, 09:51 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I traded it several times last year and of course a hold would have been better.  Great company but it is as cyclical as it gets and the PE is really getting out of range before they even peak earnings.  No idea how high it goes if infrastructure bills come to fruition.  I know I wouldn't buy and hold a lot of $250+ shares.  You will be sad in a couple years.  Same with Deere.  That's the downside to being awarded a tech stock PE.

My crystal ball says your price target has decent risk reward because I know you are smart enough to bail if the investment thesis starts looking shaky.  We have no clue what bill passes.  They might build bridges, windmills, inner city housing, or next to nothing.

I wouldn’t hold of long enough to see $300 or more lol. I would stay in for maybe 25 points and then get out. Like you said very cyclical. If I would have held it when I bought under $70 well then I would hold for a lot longer lol. Which is why I said nay take a position under $200 with protection of course. But right now they are in the sweet spot especially when the economy is fully open and more digging and construction will be needed. I think they have a good 2-3 years before we see any significant slowdown.

[divmenow]

(03-23-2021, 10:04 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Just saw the AMD link.  I know they are doing well.  I was commenting on the new chip fab plants.  It matters to TSM and INTC.  AMD not so much if they remain high end chip designers.  I wasn't bashing them at all.  They have come a long way.

I actually owned AMD 20+ yrs ago.  INTC smashed competitors like a bug before FTC put a leash on them finally.  INTC and MSFT were brutal and got by with it for a long time.

Well Intel is close to 10 years behind TSM technology wise, building 2 more plants with 10nm-14nm is useless while TSM can already mass produce 5nm today with a breeze.

So I don’t trust that Intel is going to be building 2 plants in AZ and start to make 7nm in 2024? TSM is already scheduled to make 3nm in 2024.

So INTC is light years away from making any dent lol. Which is why this is such an over reaction.

[fenders53]

I think it's a certainty CAT is going to sell mining equipment and that staff is priced like aircraft. There is a shortage of many things that have to be mined soon.

[vbin]

(03-23-2021, 10:13 PM)divmenow Wrote:

(03-23-2021, 10:04 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Just saw the AMD link.  I know they are doing well.  I was commenting on the new chip fab plants.  It matters to TSM and INTC.  AMD not so much if they remain high end chip designers.  I wasn't bashing them at all.  They have come a long way.

I actually owned AMD 20+ yrs ago.  INTC smashed competitors like a bug before FTC put a leash on them finally.  INTC and MSFT were brutal and got by with it for a long time.

Well Intel is close to 10 years behind TSM technology wise, building 2 more plants with 10nm-14nm is useless while TSM can already mass produce 5nm today with a breeze.

So I don’t trust that Intel is going to building 2 plants in AZ and start to make 7nm in 2024? TSM is already scheduled to make 3nm in 2024.

So INTC us light years away from making any dent lol. Which is why this is such an over reaction.

I think TSM will play it and take time to go 3nm. We are talking atomic level precision here. They are reaching the boundaries of physics. Don't really have an advantage here for them to mass produce 3nm while compition is still at 10nm.

Yeah intel wayy behind but given more semi demand, they should do fine as well.

[fenders53]

There will be chips in everything soon. It's not all high end or a need to be. I'll be curious how if all settles out. It will be years. This may turn out to be the longest semi cycle to date? I am hoping so. I like it when everything I buy goes up.

I followed it enough to know INTC really squandered a lot of years. They'd probably be mortally wounded if they didn't have that balance sheet. They can buy another chance. They remind me of CSCO and IBM. Lost the edge that made them dominant. Too big to die.

[ken-do-nim]

Exactly. I used to own INTC in a prior portfolio, as I did with IBM, but I won't be restoring it in my new one.

[fenders53]

(03-23-2021, 10:14 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I think it's a certainty CAT is going to sell mining equipment and that staff is priced like aircraft.  There is a shortage of many things that have to be mined soon.

I had to look.  Largest CAT mining dump truck. $3.5MIL, large dozer $350K.  Newish used smaller dozer $100K.  Not hard to understand how their sales dip when the world economy gets soft.

[Otter]

Started a new position in AMZN.