What Did You Buy Today?

[ken-do-nim]

Started a small position in FSR, an electric car company.

[Otter]

(02-16-2021, 11:17 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Talk to me about PLTR.  I know some of you follow it.  Are we near an opportunity for those who showed up late.

If you are worried about going long, you can now sell the 1/21/22 $20 Puts for $4.76/contract. 24% yield for a LEAP Put that only exercises if a company with 45%+ YoY revenue growth drops 30%+ in a year. 

My current blended cost basis in PLTR is ~$16/share, so if you sold the $20 LEAP Puts, your adjusted entry price in the event of assignment next year would be below my current cost basis. 

I also continue to hold my 1/21/22 $40 calls, as I think we will continue to see lots of volatility in the shares between now and January. Suspect the recent highs of $44 will be breached again in the coming year, which is why I continue to hold the calls.

[fenders53]

Thanks Otter. Do they have a lockup expiring? I thought I read that. Seems like we are getting near a time for at least a small position. I know the stock is well loved on the internet.

[Otter]

(02-16-2021, 12:20 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Thanks Otter.  Do they have a lockup expiring?  I thought I read that.  Seems like we are getting near a time for at least a small position.  I know the stock is well loved on the internet.

Yes, lockup expiry happens right about now. Not as substantial a percentage of the float as your typical IPO lockup, due to their direct listing. 

The only thing I didn't like in their earnings release was the huge amount of stock-based compensation (would be over $1bn/year at current rates). Would like to see that brought down.

The YoY revenue growth figures look solid.

I've always thought no one can accurately say what a growth company's share price should be. It's necessarily speculative, unlike getting cash dividends at a predictable yield. I just happen to have chosen PLTR as one of the growth picks in my portfolio, and am content to ride along with the volatility, as I like the business and think it will be a long-term leader in unstructured data analytics, which should itself be a rapidly growing sector of the economy in the coming years. 

Businesses will do anything to increase productivity. From the early days of Taylorization when factory workers were timed at their tasks with stopwatches, through Six Sigma, and now to data analytics, the goal is to boost the bottom line. Companies that want that efficiency boost are part of the target market.

Governments are also a target market (and PLTR's primary customers for most of its history). They want more efficient analysis of data, too, as knowledge is power. Affects everything from national security, to delivering government services more efficiently and eliminating waste/fraud/abuse. 

There are lots of companies that do data analytics. I dealt with tons of them when I was actively doing litigation work (all sorts of commercial platforms for sifting through eDiscovery). Most require data to be structured in certain ways for their technology to use it properly. PLTR excels at being able to take on the firehose of raw data, and tell companies and governments: here are a bunch of things you are missing where you could improve. 

There were a ton of search engines in the early 2000s. I remember using Ask Jeeves. GOOGL had the algorithm and the marketing to dominate the market. I feel kind of the same way about PLTR. I might be wrong, but if the position goes to zero, I'll ultimately be fine.

[Otter]

I would be a nervous wreck if the majority of my holdings were high-volatility growth picks like PLTR. The dividend growers are mostly boring, with easily understood valuation metrics. The dividends spend just fine.

Bought some more AROW this morning. My last post on it was pretty basic: yield, P/E, payout ratio, 5yr DGR percentage, consecutive years of growth. It's boring and simple analysis.

ABNB and PLTR are a lot more fun to write about, but I've learned over time that excitement should be a small overall part of my portfolio.

[Binary]

Sold out of WFC. Bought ANTM and added to WPC.

[fenders53]

I appreciate the thoughtful post.  You have to know I am generally conservative by now.  I always do further DD before I throw down real money.  I have definitely made a few hundred here and there following you.  I hope my bearishness causes you to look harder now and then.  

PLTR does look like a good spec but that employee compensation looks inappropriate while they are trying to turn profitable.  I expect they will have to address that.

I think I will sell a few puts soon.

[divmenow]

Bought CVS, NOC and WCN. I think its about time value stocks come in favor and let those high flyers melt down to more respectable levels lol

[chascornell]

Thinking about throwing down a F call for next year. What’s peoples thoughts on F? The Fed just announced all their cars will be EV, I think this should increase the stock price over time


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[fenders53]

(05-07-2020, 11:15 AM)kblake Wrote: bought WFC, GD, FRT, MO, PM and BRK.B

I'm still holding 48% cash for other opportunities

(02-16-2021, 02:09 PM)chascornell Wrote: Thinking about throwing down a F call for next year. What’s peoples thoughts on F? The Fed just announced all their cars will be EV, I think this should increase the stock price over time


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That was a much better idea before it doubled months ago. A single call is cheap though.  The auto market will remain low margin and require a good economy.

[Binary]

(02-16-2021, 11:58 AM)Otter Wrote:

(02-16-2021, 11:17 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Talk to me about PLTR.  I know some of you follow it.  Are we near an opportunity for those who showed up late.

If you are worried about going long, you can now sell the 1/21/22 $20 Puts for $4.76/contract. 24% yield for a LEAP Put that only exercises if a company with 45%+ YoY revenue growth drops 30%+ in a year. 

My current blended cost basis in PLTR is ~$16/share, so if you sold the $20 LEAP Puts, your adjusted entry price in the event of assignment next year would be below my current cost basis. 

I also continue to hold my 1/21/22 $40 calls, as I think we will continue to see lots of volatility in the shares between now and January. Suspect the recent highs of $44 will be breached again in the coming year, which is why I continue to hold the calls.

I also sold a 20 put today, but expiration date is 21 May 2021.

[vbin]

Sold a lot more pltr puts expiring every week uptil april below $25.


Looking to sell noc put next.