What Did You Buy Today?

[kblake]

added some PEP and a little more UPS

[fenders53]

(04-29-2020, 08:42 AM)kblake Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 08:39 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 08:32 AM)divmenow Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 08:29 AM)Binary Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 08:14 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Add a few more million unemployed to that tomorrow and we should be set.  

It would be great if GILD figures it out.  Did Doctor Trump say if Remdesivir works better with bleach or Lysol?  

OK, I'll stop now.

And don't forget the GDP data, bad news is good news now!

Did I just say that   . I hate to see when we get good news. May we go down 600 points lol

Next quarters numbers will be stunningly bad.  That's a long time for the talking heads to talk the market up and down.

But bad news and means they will go up .. No?? Lol

NOC is down $22 I think I will buy some while its down today 

I wish I bought some of those names you listed. Wow they have really come back guys.

And the bounce makes sense for some, but there are so many more where the story has not improved a bit and won't, yet they run anyway.  Some of boring stuff with no near-term hope has really been on a tear this week.  Yield chasers I suppose, or just running out of things to buy?

[Otter]

Cumulatively, all the new stuff I've added has run up 8.2% in roughly a week. This market is drunk.

Would be nice to see another pullback to add some yield on things that ran real fast, but who knows. Only options I'm still sitting on are December GLD 150 Puts. Should be profitable if GLD dips back under 156 in the coming weeks, in which case I will sell and redeploy those funds into equities. It seems to me that gold is at a near-term peak. If the market continues to run, FOMO should drive it down in favor of equities. If the market makes a plunge, gold usually takes an initial hit as it is sold to raise cash. With GDP down 5% on an annualized basis and 20%+ unemployment, don't really see inflation driving its price in the near-term.

[kblake]

I just bought WMT. Its a reliable stock and one that will do well in any economy. Its down $4 today on rotation but I think this is a $150 stock by years end. COST also on my buy list.

[Otter]

(04-29-2020, 09:18 AM)kblake Wrote: I just bought WMT. Its a reliable stock and one that will do well in any economy. Its down $4 today on rotation but I think this is a $150 stock by years end. COST also on my buy list.

Great company, but I don't see the value there. Trading at a decadal premium P/E of over 25, which is well above its 10yr average of 17.34. A reversion to mean over the next year would drop the price to ~$89/share. Earnings growth rate of only 1.58% over the past decade doesn't seem to justify the P/E premium. It's trading like a FAANG stock without the earnings growth to back it up, and with a total enterprise value of nearly half a trillion, the law of large numbers puts a cap on growth prospects.

Like AMZN, not a company I would ever short, but can't see buying in at these valuations. 

[fenders53]

(04-29-2020, 08:40 AM)Binary Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 08:32 AM)divmenow Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 08:29 AM)Binary Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 08:14 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 07:33 AM)divmenow Wrote: Thank you GILD. Market to new highs soon. Don’t be left behind lol.

Look at BA run after those wonderfully earnings lol

Remember bad news is good news now ?

Add a few more million unemployed to that tomorrow and we should be set.  

It would be great if GILD figures it out.  Did Doctor Trump say if Remdesivir works better with bleach or Lysol?  

OK, I'll stop now.

And don't forget the GDP data, bad news is good news now!

Did I just say that   . I hate to see when we get good news. May we go down 600 points lol

Seriously, at a certain point I would expect a drop. The marked went low in March pricing in a disaster and a recession. It is here, and we are up a lot since then. Was that drop an overreaction or we are just climbing high so we can fall more?

For some companies it was an over-reaction.  I do consider a lot of companies at fair value now.  Many more are once again over-valued given the economic reality.  The actual screaming deals are rare IMO.  Sure we'll get a nice drop eventually, but from what index valuation?  I'll keep trimming the over-valued stocks, and adding only when I see good value.  The indexes scare me much more than individual stocks that are priced correctly.  2/3rds of the SPY companies have to be damaged goods for some time to come.  Nobody seems to care.  The near monopolies seem just fine for now.  They hold the indexes up.  Just my two cents.

[fenders53]

(04-29-2020, 09:28 AM)Otter Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 09:18 AM)kblake Wrote: I just bought WMT. Its a reliable stock and one that will do well in any economy. Its down $4 today on rotation but I think this is a $150 stock by years end. COST also on my buy list.

Great company, but I don't see the value there. Trading at a decadal premium P/E of over 25, which is well above its 10yr average of 17.34. A reversion to mean over the next year would drop the price to ~$89/share. Earnings growth rate of only 1.58% over the past decade doesn't seem to justify the P/E premium. It's trading like a FAANG stock without the earnings growth to back it up, and with a total enterprise value of nearly half a trillion, the law of large numbers puts a cap on growth prospects.

Like AMZN, not a company I would ever short, but can't see buying in at these valuations. 

Money will rotate out of WMT and some of the over-hyped consumer non-durables when virus hoard frenzy ends.

[Otter]

(04-29-2020, 09:29 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 08:40 AM)Binary Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 08:32 AM)divmenow Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 08:29 AM)Binary Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 08:14 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Add a few more million unemployed to that tomorrow and we should be set.  

It would be great if GILD figures it out.  Did Doctor Trump say if Remdesivir works better with bleach or Lysol?  

OK, I'll stop now.

And don't forget the GDP data, bad news is good news now!

Did I just say that   . I hate to see when we get good news. May we go down 600 points lol

Seriously, at a certain point I would expect a drop. The marked went low in March pricing in a disaster and a recession. It is here, and we are up a lot since then. Was that drop an overreaction or we are just climbing high so we can fall more?

For some companies it was an over-reaction.  I do consider a lot of companies at fair value now.  Many more are once again over-valued given the economic reality.  The actual screaming deals are rare IMO.  Sure we'll get a nice drop eventually, but from what index valuation?  I'll keep trimming the over-valued stocks, and adding only when I see good value.  The indexes scare me much more than individual stocks that are priced correctly.  2/3rds of the SPY companies have to be damaged goods for some time to come.  Nobody seems to care.  The near monopolies seem just fine for now.  They hold the indexes up.  Just my two cents.

Yes, the collective market caps of Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google are worth the same as the bottom half of the S&P 500. Big chunks of the S&P 500 are still down 30% or more from the highs, but you wouldn't know it from just looking at the cap-weighted index.

[Otter]

Finished up reallocating my 401k. Equal split (20% each) between a small cap growth index, small cap value index, energy fund, real estate fund, and Euro/Pacific fund.

[kblake]

(04-29-2020, 09:32 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 09:28 AM)Otter Wrote:

(04-29-2020, 09:18 AM)kblake Wrote: I just bought WMT. Its a reliable stock and one that will do well in any economy. Its down $4 today on rotation but I think this is a $150 stock by years end. COST also on my buy list.

Great company, but I don't see the value there. Trading at a decadal premium P/E of over 25, which is well above its 10yr average of 17.34. A reversion to mean over the next year would drop the price to ~$89/share. Earnings growth rate of only 1.58% over the past decade doesn't seem to justify the P/E premium. It's trading like a FAANG stock without the earnings growth to back it up, and with a total enterprise value of nearly half a trillion, the law of large numbers puts a cap on growth prospects.

Like AMZN, not a company I would ever short, but can't see buying in at these valuations. 

Money will rotate out of WMT and some of the over-hyped consumer non-durables when virus hoard frenzy ends.

I disagree. WMT deserves a higher multiple. I don't care about graphs or history. You can throw that all out. Stocks go up over the long term on fundamentals. And WMT is killing it especially on line. They are the 1 company that can compete with AMZN. Forward PE is only 16 which is cheap. There sales are the best they have been over the last 5 years.

[fenders53]

(04-29-2020, 09:42 AM)Otter Wrote: Finished up reallocating my 401k. Equal split (20% each) between a small cap growth index, small cap value index, energy fund, real estate fund, and Euro/Pacific fund.

Apparently as good a time as any.    

I am glad I invested so aggressively on the way down because I still have some companies that are very beat up.  It's  definitely helping the recovery the past few weeks.  And yes the market is drunk.  Nobody will convince me the rest of the year won't be choppy.

[desidividend]

Been adding UPS,GD ,RY,BMO