What Did You Buy Today?

[Otter]

(03-21-2020, 08:13 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(03-21-2020, 08:04 PM)vbin Wrote:

(03-21-2020, 04:32 PM)Kerim Wrote:

(03-20-2020, 07:39 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: I think the real question now is:
what on earth are we going to do during the weekend when the market is closed?

Maybe build a buy list (again)? I have a feeling that it's shopping time on Monday...

I've been spending a lot of today updating my tracking sheets for each of my DG stocks. Long overdue. Only about a third of the way through, but will do another big chunk tomorrow. I'm glad the markets are closed for a breather. I wonder if we're looking at a heavy down start to the week as the surge begins for real in parts of the country?

In any case, anyone looking at AFL right now? Yield is low compared to many of today's "bargains," but other metrics look great for a conservative stalwart like AFL.

Also appreciate thoughts on WFC.

I am interested in WFC as well. It's pretty cheap right now but I am ready to bet that there is more 20% downside to it.

Long term it should be fine. Also they are a big lander and their earnings are going to take a big hit. I don't know how much they have been landing to shale companies and if you guys are following up, there was a huge layoff in oil sector last week. Not sure how many of their small business will default. Would appriciate thoughts from other folks.

I don't have much invested in banks.  I somehow missed out on this pre-crash bad idea.   I didn't miss many lol.  The FED has made a very strong commitment to not allowing the yield curve to invert.  That's important as they have to have that spread.  Some of their other business like IPOs and such is gone for now.  The banks just have to survive this time.  I'd wait for a little more bad news on the virus numbers and then I think bank shares might be a very good opportunity.  Better than most sectors anyway.  As far as dropping 20% more?  Maybe, but it's just a number pulled out of the air.  We can say that about oil, tech, restaurants etc.  We might get lucky and be right.

Like everything else in this market, I'm viewing it as an opportunity to snap up the biggest quality players in a sector at a discount. Have only made a handful of purchases on the way down, but JPM was one of them. The original Too Big to Fail bank. 

Will probably initiate a position in BAC at some point, and add some more GS. For community banks, I will likely add more CTBI (they are super boring, and have a great DGI history). 

WFC will probably get an add, as well, but is lower down on my priority list. Their stock will likely remain in the doghouse longer, simply because they were already in the doghouse at the top of the market.

[fenders53]

(03-22-2020, 09:45 AM)Otter Wrote:

(03-22-2020, 05:32 AM)fenders53 Wrote: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4333420...ay-for-now

The charts in this article from Darden are the first real stats I've seen.  The sales dip through the first few weeks of the crisis is very ugly for sit down restaurants.  DRI definitely on my watchlist.  Same store growth momentum was looking pretty good before the shutdown.  There will be some long-term value here soon enough.

I would caution that they were an absolute basket-case up until the very last couple years of the ultra-bull market. For years, all you would read about as a shareholder was missed earnings, earnings revisions downwards, articles that dining trends were changing (most having a theme that Millenials don't eat at chain restaurants in the same numbers as baby boomers). Things could remain ugly for a very long time.

Thanks Otter, my research is preliminary.  Maybe they won't make my buy list after I did deeper.  Restaurants are definitely part of my get well thesis.  There will be some pent up demand when the lock downs end.  (which isn't a LT thesis of course).  They are just simpler for me to understand than commodities, tech etc.  I do think millenials prefer more local or regional restaurants.  Even the boomers are attracted to one or two store operations around here.

[fenders53]

(03-22-2020, 09:49 AM)Otter Wrote:

(03-21-2020, 08:13 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(03-21-2020, 08:04 PM)vbin Wrote:

(03-21-2020, 04:32 PM)Kerim Wrote:

(03-20-2020, 07:39 PM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: I think the real question now is:
what on earth are we going to do during the weekend when the market is closed?

Maybe build a buy list (again)? I have a feeling that it's shopping time on Monday...

I've been spending a lot of today updating my tracking sheets for each of my DG stocks. Long overdue. Only about a third of the way through, but will do another big chunk tomorrow. I'm glad the markets are closed for a breather. I wonder if we're looking at a heavy down start to the week as the surge begins for real in parts of the country?

In any case, anyone looking at AFL right now? Yield is low compared to many of today's "bargains," but other metrics look great for a conservative stalwart like AFL.

Also appreciate thoughts on WFC.

I am interested in WFC as well. It's pretty cheap right now but I am ready to bet that there is more 20% downside to it.

Long term it should be fine. Also they are a big lander and their earnings are going to take a big hit. I don't know how much they have been landing to shale companies and if you guys are following up, there was a huge layoff in oil sector last week. Not sure how many of their small business will default. Would appriciate thoughts from other folks.

I don't have much invested in banks.  I somehow missed out on this pre-crash bad idea.   I didn't miss many lol.  The FED has made a very strong commitment to not allowing the yield curve to invert.  That's important as they have to have that spread.  Some of their other business like IPOs and such is gone for now.  The banks just have to survive this time.  I'd wait for a little more bad news on the virus numbers and then I think bank shares might be a very good opportunity.  Better than most sectors anyway.  As far as dropping 20% more?  Maybe, but it's just a number pulled out of the air.  We can say that about oil, tech, restaurants etc.  We might get lucky and be right.

Like everything else in this market, I'm viewing it as an opportunity to snap up the biggest quality players in a sector at a discount. Have only made a handful of purchases on the way down, but JPM was one of them. The original Too Big to Fail bank. 

Will probably initiate a position in BAC at some point, and add some more GS. For community banks, I will likely add more CTBI (they are super boring, and have a great DGI history). 

WFC will probably get an add, as well, but is lower down on my priority list. Their stock will likely remain in the doghouse longer, simply because they were already in the doghouse at the top of the market.

JPM is on my list.  May be part of my "hail Mary" when I dig into the last decent size chunk of cash I actually wish to invest.  Waiting for one last big market drop for that.  At that point I think the market looks for a bottom, whether that process takes months or a year.

[fenders53]

Divemenow was talking about Corona lock downs. IL locked down Friday. You supposedly need documentation from your boss to be driving around, or going for groceries , physician appt etc. So another words absolutely unenforceable. I live just across the border and they were swarming the Iowa HD all weekend. Beat sales plan by 30%. Half of them from IL and just price shopping for something to do. Like a trip to the mall (which is closed). We just got out first Covid confirmation yesterday, which probably means a couple dozen more are roaming around infecting people. Hope they take it more serious soon. Many still think it's a hoax, like CA,NY and WA just made this up. SMH

[divmenow]

(03-22-2020, 03:07 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Divemenow was talking about Corona lock downs.   IL locked down Friday.  You supposedly need documentation from your boss to be driving around, or going for groceries , physician appt etc.  So another words absolutely unenforceable.  I live just across the border and they were swarming  the Iowa HD all weekend.  Beat sales plan by 30%.  Half of them from IL and just price shopping for something to do.  Like a trip to the mall (which is closed).  We just got out first Covid confirmation yesterday, which probably means a couple dozen more are roaming around infecting people.  Hope they take it more serious soon.  Many still think it's a hoax, like CA,NY and WA just made this up.  SMH

Yeah we are at 479 and counting now in PA. New Jersey is twice as bad at 1,327. I'm about 20 miles outside of Jersey. So pretty scary out there. NJ and PA are on lockdown and has been for last 48 hours. It's very serious. Other then Chick Fil A everything is like a ghost town out there.

[fenders53]

(03-22-2020, 03:19 PM)divmenow Wrote:

(03-22-2020, 03:07 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Divemenow was talking about Corona lock downs.   IL locked down Friday.  You supposedly need documentation from your boss to be driving around, or going for groceries , physician appt etc.  So another words absolutely unenforceable.  I live just across the border and they were swarming  the Iowa HD all weekend.  Beat sales plan by 30%.  Half of them from IL and just price shopping for something to do.  Like a trip to the mall (which is closed).  We just got out first Covid confirmation yesterday, which probably means a couple dozen more are roaming around infecting people.  Hope they take it more serious soon.  Many still think it's a hoax, like CA,NY and WA just made this up.  SMH

Yeah we are at 479 and counting now in PA. New Jersey is twice as bad at 1,327. I'm about 20 miles outside of Jersey. So pretty scary out there. NJ and PA are on lockdown and has been for last 48 hours. It's very serious. Other then Chick Fil A everything is like a ghost town out there.

I seriously had a few customers try to lecture me today about this is just a huge over-reaction.  I just told them we'll have to wait a few weeks to test your theory.  And then there is the other extreme.  A guy bought a $4500 generator because he is pretty sure we are losing power soon.  But wait, there's more.  We cut up plywood for another guy so he could board up all his windows and doors, like we are having a hurricane in Iowa.  He explained why though.  He finally hoarded up all his provisions and "nobody is going to be taking them from me without a fight".  I wanted to say 'dude, you need medicine, the only real risk you face was running around buying up 500 rolls of TP, food, and coming here for plywood today when we have a local infection. 

[vbin]

(03-22-2020, 03:31 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(03-22-2020, 03:19 PM)divmenow Wrote:

(03-22-2020, 03:07 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Divemenow was talking about Corona lock downs.   IL locked down Friday.  You supposedly need documentation from your boss to be driving around, or going for groceries , physician appt etc.  So another words absolutely unenforceable.  I live just across the border and they were swarming  the Iowa HD all weekend.  Beat sales plan by 30%.  Half of them from IL and just price shopping for something to do.  Like a trip to the mall (which is closed).  We just got out first Covid confirmation yesterday, which probably means a couple dozen more are roaming around infecting people.  Hope they take it more serious soon.  Many still think it's a hoax, like CA,NY and WA just made this up.  SMH

Yeah we are at 479 and counting now in PA. New Jersey is twice as bad at 1,327. I'm about 20 miles outside of Jersey. So pretty scary out there. NJ and PA are on lockdown and has been for last 48 hours. It's very serious. Other then Chick Fil A everything is like a ghost town out there.

I seriously had a few customers try to lecture me today about this is just a huge over-reaction.  I just told them we'll have to wait a few weeks to test your theory.  And then there is the other extreme.  A guy bought a $4500 generator because he is pretty sure we are losing power soon.  But wait, there's more.  We cut up plywood for another guy so he could board up all his windows and doors, like we are having a hurricane in Iowa.  He explained why though.  He finally hoarded up all his provisions and "nobody is going to be taking them from me without a fight".  I wanted to say 'dude, you need medicine, the only real risk you face was running around buying up 500 rolls of TP, food, and coming here for plywood today when we have a local infection. 

Rotfl, now I see what you have to deal with. Tomoorw gonna be a red Monday as far as I see it though. Almost 40k in u.s.a. I don't expect it to climb this fast either. Stay safe guys. Hospitals here have been asking for donations, money, masks, sanitizers, other supplies.

[fenders53]

(03-22-2020, 03:44 PM)vbin Wrote:

(03-22-2020, 03:31 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(03-22-2020, 03:19 PM)divmenow Wrote:

(03-22-2020, 03:07 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Divemenow was talking about Corona lock downs.   IL locked down Friday.  You supposedly need documentation from your boss to be driving around, or going for groceries , physician appt etc.  So another words absolutely unenforceable.  I live just across the border and they were swarming  the Iowa HD all weekend.  Beat sales plan by 30%.  Half of them from IL and just price shopping for something to do.  Like a trip to the mall (which is closed).  We just got out first Covid confirmation yesterday, which probably means a couple dozen more are roaming around infecting people.  Hope they take it more serious soon.  Many still think it's a hoax, like CA,NY and WA just made this up.  SMH

Yeah we are at 479 and counting now in PA. New Jersey is twice as bad at 1,327. I'm about 20 miles outside of Jersey. So pretty scary out there. NJ and PA are on lockdown and has been for last 48 hours. It's very serious. Other then Chick Fil A everything is like a ghost town out there.

I seriously had a few customers try to lecture me today about this is just a huge over-reaction.  I just told them we'll have to wait a few weeks to test your theory.  And then there is the other extreme.  A guy bought a $4500 generator because he is pretty sure we are losing power soon.  But wait, there's more.  We cut up plywood for another guy so he could board up all his windows and doors, like we are having a hurricane in Iowa.  He explained why though.  He finally hoarded up all his provisions and "nobody is going to be taking them from me without a fight".  I wanted to say 'dude, you need medicine, the only real risk you face was running around buying up 500 rolls of TP, food, and coming here for plywood today when we have a local infection. 

Rotfl, now I see what you have to deal with. Tomoorw gonna be a red Monday as far as I see it though. Almost 40k in u.s.a. I don't expect it to climb this fast either. Stay safe guys. Hospitals here have been asking for donations, money, masks, sanitizers, other supplies.

Where we are right now is about what I would have guessed the peak would be when Otter started warning us.  We obviously aren't even close to my outcome and my skepticism cost me a lot of money.  I have to play covered put games to nibble my way back over the coming months.  Can't fix it overnight, and won't sell everything now because that is likely to end bad too.  The fact is we have no containment.  Rural areas probably don't get hit all that hard, but that's not good enough to save companies.

[NilesMike]

Illinois representing here. No permission is needed. Quite a few stores are open, restaurants are drive thru or delivery only-no bars open.

We can walk to parks, all facilities closed, I can go fishing at my nearby lakes.

My Auto Parts store is open and is considered an essential service, I've never felt like I'm being paid as an essential worker-LOL

Starting to look at the multi family listings to see how prices may soften as we go along.

[divmenow]

Here we go again. Futures are limit down. At this rate we may be headed to 2010 levels. Soon every stock will be a $1. I can buy 1000 shares of LMT. But my cash will have run out by then lol

[NilesMike]

(03-22-2020, 05:23 PM)divmenow Wrote: Here we go again. Futures are limit down. At this rate we may be headed to 2010 levels. Soon every stock will be a $1. I can buy 1000 shares of LMT. But my cash will have run out by then lol

Unreal, I was in for 2:06 LOL

Only way I'm making money for the most part.

[fenders53]

(03-22-2020, 04:53 PM)NilesMike Wrote: Illinois representing here. No permission is needed. Quite a few stores are open, restaurants are drive thru or delivery only-no bars open.

We can walk to parks, all facilities closed, I can go fishing at my nearby lakes.

My Auto Parts store is open and is considered an essential service, I've never felt like I'm being paid as an essential worker-LOL

Starting to look at the multi family listings to see how prices may soften as we go along.

Several of my co-workers have letters from multiple jobs indicating they are essential.  Perhaps different states require it and they are just being pro-active then?  I worked part-time briefly for Autozone.  Enjoy the work but I think retail auto parts is trying the lead the nation in terrible pay.