What Did You Buy Today?

[rayray]

(08-15-2019, 10:27 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(08-15-2019, 11:28 AM)vbin Wrote: In my opinion whatever you buy, keep enough powder for later, high probability for things to get ugly post 2020 and as others mentioned high probability for oil to drop further, I bought bunch in XOM based on buy and hold strategy, but I could have got it $3-$4 cheaper per stock. That can make a difference in long run. We never know if market is going to go up or down but atleast now I knew it aswll that there is a good probability that oil will fall further and conditions are volatile.

Of course it makes a huge difference if we can enter all our stocks $3-4 cheaper.  That implies we can time the macro market and that requires some luck.  I bought XOM about $8 ago so I'm not so smart, but I am OK with holding it, dividends and covered calls.  I'd be a helluva lot happier if I started doing that today with a better entry.  I win some I lose some.  Until a month ago I thought there would be a trade deal.  

Easier to type than actually do, but when the market is skittish for good reason, I try to evaluate the cost of waiting when a stock is falling.  Is it more likely to trend downward than it is to launch higher so fast I can't get in next week?  Most of the stocks on my watch list are likely to go sideways at best.  A one day stock drop you can't miss out on is actually pretty rare.  Being patient is tough but most sectors have a great deal of uncertainty right now.  We'll find some true bargains if things don't dramatically improve.   

It's amazing how the market can easily move 2-3% in a day, on news that can be easily reversed tomorrow with a not so well thought out comment from a world leader or the FED.

I average 10 to 20% cash in my 401k because it's mutual funds, it will be invested if the market takes a huge hit. In my other accounts, 1 brokerage, 2 traditional IRA's and 1 ROTH the cash is deployed in selected stocks that I feel are at reasonable prices either monthly or bi-monthly--it just depends. The way I figure, the dividends keep coming and I deposit extra funds every month throughout the year, so, what does it matter if I buy on the way up or on the way down?

[stockguru]

I keep 20-25% cash for big market declines. For me I won’t chase stocks unless they have declined from highs and are yielding at least 3%. Credit rating matter too. It’s all about long term gains for me at a price I feel conformable buying at.

This market is over valued even after the slight dip the past 2 weeks. I believe we are headed for a recession in 2020-21. They happen every 9 years and were due. Plus there is too much uncertainty in the market.,

They are some stocks I would start taking positions in like XOM, JNJ, ABBV, MO, PM, IBM, ENB, BMO, FUN, SIX, T, SPG, LYB, WFC, and VLO. These names fit my mold.

[crimsonghost747]

I've been saying the market is overvalued since maybe 2013 or something like that. Was I wrong? Maybe I was, maybe I wasn't, but we sure did climb waaaay higher from there.

I'm just glad I've stuck with my "invest X amount monthly. Every month, no matter what" strategy because apparently I'm not perfect at timing the market. Sometimes I buy stocks that I could have gotten cheaper a month ago, and sometimes it turns out that the stocks I bought could be had cheaper a month later. All I know is that dividend pile keeps growing month after month.

To remain within the point of this thread.
Sold (yes, SOLD!) a small part of my AMAT holdings.

[fenders53]

(08-17-2019, 09:41 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: I've been saying the market is overvalued since maybe 2013 or something like that. Was I wrong? Maybe I was, maybe I wasn't, but we sure did climb waaaay higher from there.

I'm just glad I've stuck with my "invest X amount monthly. Every month, no matter what" strategy because apparently I'm not perfect at timing the market. Sometimes I buy stocks that I could have gotten cheaper a month ago, and sometimes it turns out that the stocks I bought could be had cheaper a month later. All I know is that dividend pile keeps growing month after month.

To remain within the point of this thread.
Sold (yes, SOLD!) a small part of my AMAT holdings.

Nah, you weren't wrong.  Some stocks were at least somewhat overvalued since way back then.  I think the common theme here is we should stay most;y invested, but don't be so reckless as to be cashless when the market is obviously far more expensive than it will be some year soon.  The day is coming.  It's years overdue.

I won't hold my entire position in a large cap stock when it is trading at a ridiculous PE.  That's a mindlessly mechanical strategy.  You won't go broke redeploying some of those funds to another good company more reasonably valued.

[rayray]

I stayed 100% invested during the 2008/09 meltdown--invested before, during and after and it was not the end of the world, in fact, I've done better then all my friends and family that sold or stayed on the sidelines. I know a couple of guys who stayed on the sidelines for 5 to 7 years, getting back into the market 2013 to 2014.

I've been investing in the stock market for almost 25 years and I've experienced 40% plus drop in my total investment portfolio...wait...wait...wait...wait for it...ONCE. My first investments were bonds and CD's that my grandparents got me into with grass cutting, Christmas and birthday money when I was very young (13/14 years old) and let me tell you guys something, even with a 50% drop in total net worth, bonds and CD's have not been able to hold a candlestick to quality stock investments (10% plus CD returns just ain't going to happen anytime soon--not in this rate environment). But who wants to pay high mortgage interest rates anymore? People would flip the freak out if mortgage rates go up to 8 plus percent. What about the late 70's and early 80's? Those mortgage rates? For get it, people would stroke out. Banks and the such weren't giving good returns on CD's out of the goodness of their hearts. Banks can keep their free toasters! It's a give and take world. My point is that my grandparents should have let me buy Microsoft and or Walmart like I wanted instead of bonds and CD's that they directed me towards because of safety concerns.

I might come across as bull, I'm not...I know the market goes up and goes down--it happens. As we speak, I have some investments that are down 25% plus, I've had dividend cuts (big ones) in the last 10 years...but one important aspect, even with some big dividend cuts my overall dividend income has gone up every year. My strategy is "Steady as she goes..." and don't get sidetracked by the noise. Politics is noise, the media is noise (and yes those financial shows and articles are noise too), anyone telling you, arguing until they're blue in the face to sell are full of noise out the ying yang. Know yourself as an investor then act accordingly. From that first bond/CD to the last stock purchase I made, I know my investor-self, after the course of 35 years, extremely well. I know what I'm going to do and what I'm not going to do as an investor. It did not happen overnight, it did not happen in a decade, it took a lifetime.

Every so often I'll look at my portfolio and think should I sell this one, should I trim this one...eh? When I crunch the numbers, really crunch the numbers I usually come to the conclusion I'm not selling--it does happen though, in rare occasions. Why? Cause I don't invest in something that I want to sell, I'm not buying something just so I can turn around and sell it. It takes too much time in order for me to buy that I don't want to waist it. Some of my best choices I made were NOT investing in a particular company, some of the best financial advice I took was NOT doing what they were telling me to do. Sometimes the best thing to do is NOTHING--and I'm really good at doing nothing, actually, an expert--ask my wife! When evaluating a stock, assuming the numbers are not a lie, over the long term, even through the bad times, how can one lose?

invest in a QUALITY company
at a REASONABLE price
look for that DIVIDEND
and NEVER sell

Remember, it's not a stock market it's a market of stocks, it's not a sprint, it's a marathon.

[vbin]

A bunch of folks here including me have bought ABBV recently. I have been giving it a good thought and would like to hear what folks think about 3 issues I see

1. Their debt
2. 50% of sales coming from Humira whose parents will expire soon.
3. Recent purchase of AGN

[fenders53]

(08-17-2019, 11:33 AM)rayray Wrote: I stayed 100% invested during the 2008/09 meltdown--invested before, during and after and it was not the end of the world, in fact, I've done better then all my friends and family that sold or stayed on the sidelines. I know a couple of guys who stayed on the sidelines for 5 to 7 years, getting back into the market 2013 to 2014.

I've been investing in the stock market for almost 25 years and I've experienced 40% plus drop in my total investment portfolio...wait...wait...wait...wait for it...ONCE. My first investments were bonds and CD's that my grandparents got me into with grass cutting, Christmas and birthday money when I was very young (13/14 years old) and let me tell you guys something, even with a 50% drop in total net worth, bonds and CD's have not been able to hold a candlestick to quality stock investments (10% plus CD returns just ain't going to happen anytime soon--not in this rate environment). But who wants to pay high mortgage interest rates anymore? People would flip the freak out if mortgage rates go up to 8 plus percent. What about the late 70's and early 80's? Those mortgage rates? For get it, people would stroke out. Banks and the such weren't giving good returns on CD's out of the goodness of their hearts. Banks can keep their free toasters! It's a give and take world. My point is that my grandparents should have let me buy Microsoft and or Walmart like I wanted instead of bonds and CD's that they directed me towards because of safety concerns.

I might come across as bull, I'm not...I know the market goes up and goes down--it happens. As we speak, I have some investments that are down 25% plus, I've had dividend cuts (big ones) in the last 10 years...but one important aspect, even with some big dividend cuts my overall dividend income has gone up every year.  My strategy is "Steady as she goes..." and don't get sidetracked by the noise. Politics is noise, the media is noise (and yes those financial shows and articles are noise too), anyone telling you, arguing until they're blue in the face to sell are full of noise out the ying yang. Know yourself as an investor then act accordingly. From that first bond/CD to the last stock purchase I made, I know my investor-self, after the course of 35 years, extremely well. I know what I'm going to do and what I'm not going to do as an investor. It did not happen overnight, it did not happen in a decade, it took a lifetime.

Every so often I'll look at my portfolio and think should I sell this one, should I trim this one...eh? When I crunch the numbers, really crunch the numbers I usually come to the conclusion I'm not selling--it does happen though, in rare occasions. Why? Cause I don't invest in something that I want to sell, I'm not buying something just so I can turn around and sell it. It takes too much time in order for me to buy that I don't want to waist it. Some of my best choices I made were NOT investing in a particular company, some of the best financial advice I took was NOT doing what they were telling me to do. Sometimes the best thing to do is NOTHING--and I'm really good at doing nothing, actually, an expert--ask my wife! When evaluating a stock, assuming the numbers are not a lie, over the long term, even through the bad times, how can one lose?

invest in a QUALITY company
at a REASONABLE price
look for that DIVIDEND
and NEVER sell

Remember, it's not a stock market it's a market of stocks, it's not a sprint, it's a marathon.

I am good with most of that until you say NEVER SELL.  That means you never ever make a bad decision.  Do you really believe they Ray?  You are either think you are the most amazing investor to ever walk the earth, or a little bit delusional and locked into a strategy.  I refer you back to Buffet and Munger.  "Don't lose money".  I know that quote is tongue in cheek, so I interpret it to mean "don't lose money when you should know better".   There is patience, and there is stubbornly riding a dumpster fire into the ground and losing it all because you are too stubborn to admit you made a mistake.  Patience doesn't cure all bad decisions.

[rayray]

(08-17-2019, 08:54 PM)fenders53 Wrote: I am good with most of that until you say NEVER SELL.  That means you never ever make a bad decision.  Do you really believe they Ray?  You are either think you are the most amazing investor to ever walk the earth, or a little bit delusional and locked into a strategy.  I refer you back to Buffet and Munger.  "Don't lose money".  I know that quote is tongue in cheek, so I interpret it to mean "don't lose money when you should know better".   There is patience, and there is stubbornly riding a dumpster fire into the ground and losing it all because you are too stubborn to admit you made a mistake.  Patience doesn't cure all bad decisions.

No, I made my fair share of mistakes and some of them were selling what I thought I should sell--those sells cost me a lot. That's one reason why I don't like selling. If I buy a solid company, and it pays me a nice growing dividend--even if it becomes overpriced--why should I sell? I see no issues keeping the investment and collecting the dividend. I did sell Kontoor Brands recently, and it cost me some--I just didn't feel like following the stock--doing the research--so I sold it. I believe I bought ALB with the proceeds. I don't buy any crazy-like companies--I don't speculate--I don't gamble with my earned dollars. MKL has been dead money for me for a while--I can sell and try to do better but then I'd have to pay long-term capital gains and do research to buy something else--I don't know maybe Markel will not do anything maybe it'll start doing better. I'd rather just let it sit there--I don't believe I'll lose the dollars and in time,imho, it's a really good company that will grow in my account--so why sell? I put in the leg work a long time ago, kept tabs on it, it hit some speed bumps and I'm ok if it just sits there--in fact I thought about buying it not too long ago when it went below 1k--I didn't though--bought TD instead.

MKL
CELG
AMZN
BRK.b
SHOP

are my only stocks out of 57 that don't pay a dividend and I can't think of selling any of them at the moment, even SHOP....Why? Cause it's up a few hundred percent? Sell, pay long term capital gain taxes..then what? What am I going to buy? I believe in the company and if it drops 300% I''l buy more and wait. I've been reading articles saying sell SHOP 200 plus percent ago. I know it's way way overpriced but I'm willing to let it ride out.

OHI and SBRA are two others that I think....think about selling but I'm holding for now--a lot of pressure on SNF's but I'm holding.

AAPL? QCOM? BNS? CM? CMI? V? XOM? CB? O? AFL? MO? KMI? JNJ? DIS? I can't sell these...what am I going to do? Do I sell my winners? Do I sell my losers? But I tend to be a value investor and my losers seem to linger, what should I do? Sell them and cut my losses? Maybe I should sell ABBV because of the debt load? Is it going to go bankrupt? Cut it's dividend? 

A recession? Maybe I should sell and prep for it? Why? I can't do that....What should I sell? How long should I wait?

The point is that I have a nice snowball rolling and I don't want to disrupt it by selling something that I might regret selling. SHOP, OHI and SBRA can all go to zero and it wouldn't kill me financially, so why sell them at the moment? I'm going to let them ride. For the record, I never bought SBRA....they bought something else I owned--I never would have bought them--I should have sold them when they acquired the company I owned but didn't. I think that's why I sold Kontoor so quickly. So, I do sell, but rarely as I said in the other post.

So, I did sell one stock this year--kontoor. It wouldn't have killed me to just keep it.

But going back to buying a quality company at a reasonable price, looking for that dividend. As a long term investor, why would I want to sell that investment? Why? Cause I think I can do better? How about I collect those dividends and buy more stock of a quality company at a reasonable price.

Wash, rinse and repeat.

And yes...WB said you only need to know two rules for investing

Rule #1 Don't lose money
Rule #2 Don't forget Rule #1

[Ron Ricco]

I think I am closest to RayRay’s philosophy, although I may have a few more “sells” in my account. I am almost entirely in a tax advantaged accounts, so the capital gains do not affect me.

About the only time I sell anything is basically I see a company where there is no path forward to continue growing the dividend. An example might be a company like Pitney Bowes. I look at where paper mailings are going and all I see is decline for a company like that. It doesn’t mean that they can’t go through a radical change, but that is a company I would not keep.

I also tend to sell a company that might have had a large run up in stock price, but doesn’t tend to have very large dividend increases. CAT was an example of a stock like that for me. It basically doubled for me, but I just didn’t see much growth from that price and with relatively small increases in the div, I felt it better to allocate the funds somewhere else. LMT would be the opposite. That stock is up 400% since I bought it, but they also tend to have large increases in the dividend, so it is a keeper for me.

But for me the most part, I am on autopilot and just let the dripping take care of itself. And that certainly isn’t the only/best way to skin the cat, it is just how I do it.

[divmenow]

I don't worry about where the market is headed or what prices they are trading at. It all comes down to yield, valuation, debt, credit rating and dividend history (continued raises). The only time I sell is if a merger happens or the valuations get way out of control.

If the market gives you a good opportunity in a name you like or already own, take advantage of it. That's the rule I follow and stick by it. There is no fancy talk here, nor do I need to write a book to get my point across haha

And I see a bunch of names I can invest in right now and be well rewarded 5-10 years down the road.

ABBV, PFE, SPG, IBM and PM. All names with a yield of over 4% that look very attractive at current levels.

[fenders53]

(08-18-2019, 11:09 AM)divmenow Wrote: I don't worry about where the market is headed or what prices they are trading at. It all comes down to yield, valuation, debt, credit rating and dividend history (continued raises). The only time I sell is if a merger happens or the valuations get way out of control.

If the market gives you a good opportunity in a name you like or already own, take advantage of it.  That's the rule I follow and stick by it. There is no fancy talk here, nor do I need to write a book to get my point across haha

And I see a bunch of names I can invest in right now and be well rewarded 5-10 years down the road.

ABBV, PFE, SPG, IBM and PM. All names with a yield of over 4% that look very attractive at current levels.

That mostly describes my preferred investing style.  I have definitely fallen victim to ignoring debt on a few occasions, when I should have given up on wishing it would work out.   I prefer to buy and sell in stages as I know I'll  miss the top or bottom.  I'm still struggle with the fact I am an impatient buyer.  I haven't corrected this enough yet.  It's part of the reason I am attracted to enter via put sales.  I can assure myself if I buy it's at a lower price.  If I am way too early I can generally walk the put out a few months further and avoid being forced in now.  Gives me more time to re-evaluate my research.       

A 3% dividend is pretty much my minimum requirement as I get closer to retirement.  Much over 4% and I probably need to better understand why it's so high.  There is usually a rational explanation when a stock pays a Div double the S&P, but sometimes it's just fear by the masses.  I tend to ignore stocks that pay dividends under 2%.  That has led to lost opportunities.  I am trying to mix it up a little more now in case I'm wrong about almost always chasing higher dividends, but it's hard.

ray-ray, hope my comment didn't come across too aggressive.  I spend a lot of time typing here and I regard you all as friends.  I hope you guys call me out anytime I say something you believe is flawed.  Defending ones position should make us more successful IMO.   There's more than one way to succeed at this game.  We'll never prove with certainty who is right or wrong, and that's OK.

[rayray]

No Fenders, I'm okay! And I always appreciate your posts!

I believe there's many right ways to invest--it's just important to find one that fits.


I'm also impatient, usually or have in the past invested a bit too early, not that it was the wrong stock to buy but just a little too early! lol....That's why I've been waiting a little longer to buy something and I'm okay investing smaller amounts. Being a value investor tends to be painful at times, sometimes longer then I like but with time it usually works out.