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(02-12-2019, 05:42 PM)stockguru Wrote: All these oil stocks currently pay over a 3% yield. I did some calculations. To me OIL stocks represent the best values in the market. Below is with only 15k invested.
Symbol div shares bought (50) Dividend payout per year
RDS .94 50 shares cost $3150 ($188 in dividend payout per year)
TOT .72 50 shares cost $2700 ($144 in dividend payout per year)
OXY .78 50 shares cost $3200 ($156 in dividend payout per year)
XOM .82 50 shares cost $3700 ($164 in dividend payout per year)
CNQ .335 50 shares cost $1300 ($67 in dividend payout per year)
SU - .36 50 shares cost $1600 ($72 in dividend payout per year)
Total dividends from about 6 stocks per year $791
$15,650 cost for all 6 stocks to buy at 50 shares each (in 20 years of dividends will make up costs of stocks) $15,820 in dividends if you hold for 20 years. This does not include dividend raises.
Only if you ignore the time value of money.
You need to be able to bank on inflation matching raises 
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(02-14-2019, 06:24 PM)DividendDragon Wrote: (02-12-2019, 05:42 PM)stockguru Wrote: All these oil stocks currently pay over a 3% yield. I did some calculations. To me OIL stocks represent the best values in the market. Below is with only 15k invested.
Symbol div shares bought (50) Dividend payout per year
RDS .94 50 shares cost $3150 ($188 in dividend payout per year)
TOT .72 50 shares cost $2700 ($144 in dividend payout per year)
OXY .78 50 shares cost $3200 ($156 in dividend payout per year)
XOM .82 50 shares cost $3700 ($164 in dividend payout per year)
CNQ .335 50 shares cost $1300 ($67 in dividend payout per year)
SU - .36 50 shares cost $1600 ($72 in dividend payout per year)
Total dividends from about 6 stocks per year $791
$15,650 cost for all 6 stocks to buy at 50 shares each (in 20 years of dividends will make up costs of stocks) $15,820 in dividends if you hold for 20 years. This does not include dividend raises.
Only if you ignore the time value of money.
You need to be able to bank on inflation matching raises
Umm, no.
Just one stock above (RDS) Initial investment 3,150 paying 3% yield, if dripped, would generate $7,600 in dividends over the 20 year period.
crimsonghost747
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fenders53 Wrote:Thanks. I looked at SIX sometime back but missed the bad earnings report today. Still looks like an opportunity. I took a little different approach but it is my version of going long. Sold a June 52.50 put so I may be in for 100 shares if it is below that in June. Got paid $3.40/SH for the risk today. Just a bit over one full year of dividends received now. I like the risk/reward on this one.
While in general I'm not a big fan of selling options far out in time, this one does look quite interesting.
If you don't get assigned it almost 20% annualized, definitely a nice income. (if my math is correct)
If you do get assigned then it gets a bit more complicated but we won't know until June. :p
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(02-15-2019, 07:47 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: fenders53 Wrote:Thanks. I looked at SIX sometime back but missed the bad earnings report today. Still looks like an opportunity. I took a little different approach but it is my version of going long. Sold a June 52.50 put so I may be in for 100 shares if it is below that in June. Got paid $3.40/SH for the risk today. Just a bit over one full year of dividends received now. I like the risk/reward on this one.
While in general I'm not a big fan of selling options far out in time, this one does look quite interesting.
If you don't get assigned it almost 20% annualized, definitely a nice income. (if my math is correct)
If you do get assigned then it gets a bit more complicated but we won't know until June. :p
I rarely go past 45 days selling puts but this one was especially interesting, and some stocks do not sell monthly options anyway. Or they are so low volume that liquidity can cause issues. We'll see how this one goes. The collateral for the cash covered put is drawing 2.3% annualized interest for now, and the $340 premium looks nice in my ultra short bond fund. Everybody is a genius when the market climbs steadily higher. I'll enjoy it while it lasts, and use zero margin.
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Bought some FDX this morning. First time buying this name!
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Added to BUD and T this morning.
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Bought NWL and DUK this morning.
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Don't like BUD at all, their business trajectory is down. STZ is a much better buy IMO. Since BUD sold Corona/Modello to STZ it has gone from $105ish to 70ish , while STZ has gone from $80ish to 180ish
(02-15-2019, 10:11 AM)Otter Wrote: Added to BUD and T this morning.
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(02-15-2019, 10:37 AM)NilesMike Wrote: Don't like BUD at all, their business trajectory is down. STZ is a much better buy IMO. Since BUD sold Corona/Modello to STZ it has gone from $105ish to 70ish , while STZ has gone from $80ish to 180ish
(02-15-2019, 10:11 AM)Otter Wrote: Added to BUD and T this morning.
Both appear roughly fairly valued to me. BUD is trading right at its historical average P/E, with a yield (even after the divvy cut and foreign tax) about 50 basis points higher than STZ (although STZ's recent history of raises is impressive). I also view BUD as a bet on Dollar vs. emerging market currencies reverting back to the historical mean at some point in the near future. Although it pains me to invest in them as a homebrewer, BUD is one of the 800lb gorillas in the beer space, and I think they will continue to execute well in that challenging space long-term.
STZ is trading a bit under its 10-year average P/E of 21, but in the same ballpark as BUD. I think the current discount for STZ is the market trying to digest the impact of them making a huge bet on cannabis by spending $4B (a sizable percentage of their market cap) for Canopy. I don't know that you will see the same meteoric divvy growth going forward for STZ, at least for the next couple years.
Frankly, I like both. I have had STZ on my watch-list for a while. Would also love to own BF.B if it ever drops to a P/E in the low 20s (one can hope). Selling booze is profitable.
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02-15-2019, 11:16 AM
(This post was last modified: 02-15-2019, 11:18 AM by fenders53.)
(02-15-2019, 09:51 AM)divmenow Wrote: Bought some FDX this morning. First time buying this name!
I like FDX long-term. I am starting to believe UPS and maybe even AMZN took a nibble of their money the past few quarters. Nothing they can't fix in the fast changing industry.
Another vote for BUDs future looks iffy for the foreseeable future. NWL has been on my watch list. Owned it back in the 1990s. They have some work to do.
In the interest of fair option results reporting, I haven't had time to shop today because it's expiration Friday and I have a couple covered calls that need rolled forward or I will lose most of my shares in AAPL and HD at a deep discount. That's a big nope! This is the most options I have ever had expire on the same day. I will try to avoid that in the future as it gets a little hairy.
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(02-15-2019, 10:56 AM)Otter Wrote: (02-15-2019, 10:37 AM)NilesMike Wrote: Don't like BUD at all, their business trajectory is down. STZ is a much better buy IMO. Since BUD sold Corona/Modello to STZ it has gone from $105ish to 70ish , while STZ has gone from $80ish to 180ish
(02-15-2019, 10:11 AM)Otter Wrote: Added to BUD and T this morning.
Both appear roughly fairly valued to me. BUD is trading right at its historical average P/E, with a yield (even after the divvy cut and foreign tax) about 50 basis points higher than STZ (although STZ's recent history of raises is impressive). I also view BUD as a bet on Dollar vs. emerging market currencies reverting back to the historical mean at some point in the near future. Although it pains me to invest in them as a homebrewer, BUD is one of the 800lb gorillas in the beer space, and I think they will continue to execute well in that challenging space long-term.
STZ is trading a bit under its 10-year average P/E of 21, but in the same ballpark as BUD. I think the current discount for STZ is the market trying to digest the impact of them making a huge bet on cannabis by spending $4B (a sizable percentage of their market cap) for Canopy. I don't know that you will see the same meteoric divvy growth going forward for STZ, at least for the next couple years.
Frankly, I like both. I have had STZ on my watch-list for a while. Would also love to own BF.B if it ever drops to a P/E in the low 20s (one can hope). Selling booze is profitable.
I have STZ P/E at 11??
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02-15-2019, 12:44 PM
(This post was last modified: 02-15-2019, 12:46 PM by fenders53.)
(02-15-2019, 07:47 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: fenders53 Wrote:Thanks. I looked at SIX sometime back but missed the bad earnings report today. Still looks like an opportunity. I took a little different approach but it is my version of going long. Sold a June 52.50 put so I may be in for 100 shares if it is below that in June. Got paid $3.40/SH for the risk today. Just a bit over one full year of dividends received now. I like the risk/reward on this one.
While in general I'm not a big fan of selling options far out in time, this one does look quite interesting.
If you don't get assigned it almost 20% annualized, definitely a nice income. (if my math is correct)
If you do get assigned then it gets a bit more complicated but we won't know until June. :p
What do you think of this move? I've been watching NWL but know they are in distress so for a long time been looking for an optimal entry. Stock dropped 20% on bad 2019 earnings outlook today. Solid brands but they have a train wreck to fix and stock isn't running higher soon IMO. Dividend must be well over 4% now and they have always paid it to my knowledge. They are far from losing money though. Real DIV growth is probably dead for a while
IMO, but DIV is already high.
Speaking of long options, here is what I just did.
Sold a JUN put strike 16 for 1.15. That's about 20% annualized. Today I am real good with being assigned NWL at a sub $15/SH basis. Dividend would be very good.
Sold a SEP put strike 17 for 2.10. That's more than two years of NWL Div in my pocket today so I am feeling good with the risk reward on this one. It's OK to disagree, but I'll move the premiums to my ultra short bond fund now.
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