What Did You Buy Today?

[KTMarty]

Pick up PFE at open this morning at 32.73 Dang, one of my picks that actually gone up after purchasing!

Attractive 4% yield and with $$$ off shore and with Trump repatriation tax reform may make this a winner this year. Will have to wait and see.

[gymchamp]

(02-10-2017, 09:47 AM)Rasec Wrote:

(02-08-2017, 11:18 AM)divmenow Wrote: GILD is done. No growth, nothing in the pipeline. Listen to the conference call. One of the worst ones I ever heard. CEO should be fired. That stock has way more downside left. Nothing more then a bond now.

(02-08-2017, 06:29 PM)navyasw02 Wrote: I'm glad I sold months ago when I did.  It seems like when the volume of articles encouraging people to hold is on the rise is exactly the time to jump out.  Same was true for KMI last year.

A few months ago I read the same thing about Apple in this same forum, Apple was doomed, no more growth, there was only downside, etc. I took the shot and bought several times, with a combined cost basis of $98. I guessed it would be fine in the long term. 

My magic ball couldn't imagine that less then 6 months later the stock would be trading at all times high and I would be at a 35% upside. (it makes me smile, but I don't really care, I'll hold on to them).

Back to GILD, my magic ball tells me the same, it will be fine in the long term, maybe they need to bring in a new CEO, maybe they need to buy another company, maybe they even need to build lesser good drugs, ie, the ones that don't cure you but need to be sold forever... but this too shall pass!

This 100%

[gymchamp]

(02-10-2017, 04:06 PM)navyasw02 Wrote:

(02-10-2017, 09:47 AM)Rasec Wrote:

(02-08-2017, 11:18 AM)divmenow Wrote: GILD is done. No growth, nothing in the pipeline. Listen to the conference call. One of the worst ones I ever heard. CEO should be fired. That stock has way more downside left. Nothing more then a bond now.

(02-08-2017, 06:29 PM)navyasw02 Wrote: I'm glad I sold months ago when I did.  It seems like when the volume of articles encouraging people to hold is on the rise is exactly the time to jump out.  Same was true for KMI last year.

A few months ago I read the same thing about Apple in this same forum, Apple was doomed, no more growth, there was only downside, etc. I took the shot and bought several times, with a combined cost basis of $98. I guessed it would be fine in the long term. 

My magic ball couldn't imagine that less then 6 months later the stock would be trading at all times high and I would be at a 35% upside. (it makes me smile, but I don't really care, I'll hold on to them).

Back to GILD, my magic ball tells me the same, it will be fine in the long term, maybe they need to bring in a new CEO, maybe they need to buy another company, maybe they even need to build lesser good drugs, ie, the ones that don't cure you but need to be sold forever... but this too shall pass!

I wish I shared your optimism.  There comes a time when buy and hold becomes a fools errand.  I was in denial for about 2 years that things would turn around and I lost 30%.

lol 2 years?!! You would think that on a DGI forum more people would understand that 2 years is peanuts

[Forticus]

2 years isn't peanuts: 11% payback on my BP shares  

[navyasw02]

(02-16-2017, 03:28 AM)gymchamp Wrote:

(02-10-2017, 04:06 PM)navyasw02 Wrote: I wish I shared your optimism.  There comes a time when buy and hold becomes a fools errand.  I was in denial for about 2 years that things would turn around and I lost 30%.

lol 2 years?!! You would think that on a DGI forum more people would understand that 2 years is peanuts

True, but a 30% loss isnt peanuts.  It takes a LONG time at 2-3% yield to recover especially with the trajectory heading down.  Others may disagree, but putting on dividend growth blinders and ignoring growth in principal is not an investment strategy I wish to take.

[Binary]

Opened PEP

[divmenow]

(02-16-2017, 11:38 AM)Binary Wrote: Opened PEP

Added to UNH and took a new position is EXR

[rapidacid]

Added to GIS

[gymchamp]

(02-16-2017, 05:11 AM)Forticus Wrote: 2 years isn't peanuts: 11% payback on my BP shares  

Exactly, even if your stock price is stagnating you're going to be getting paid to wait. And on top of that if you're re-investing your dividends you're going to be re-investing at lower prices which supercharges your returns when the price eventually catches up to earnings or the PE expands.  

(02-16-2017, 05:20 AM)navyasw02 Wrote:

(02-16-2017, 03:28 AM)gymchamp Wrote:

(02-10-2017, 04:06 PM)navyasw02 Wrote: I wish I shared your optimism.  There comes a time when buy and hold becomes a fools errand.  I was in denial for about 2 years that things would turn around and I lost 30%.

lol 2 years?!! You would think that on a DGI forum more people would understand that 2 years is peanuts

True, but a 30% loss isnt peanuts.  It takes a LONG time at 2-3% yield to recover especially with the trajectory heading down.  Others may disagree, but putting on dividend growth blinders and ignoring growth in principal is not an investment strategy I wish to take.

2 years!!!!!! lol Who cares about a 30% loss in 2 years. You're not relying solely on a 2-3% dividend to recover your losses or make money moving forward. I think you're ignoring the fact that stock prices can recover and shoot upwards very quickly even after very long periods of stagnation or decline. You're rarely going to get a straight upwards trajectory in stock price even for the best companies.

No one is saying to ignore growth! There is a "G" in DGI If you've carefully picked wide moat companies with long dividend histories that are still growing earnings even at moderate rates you're going to be fine long term. Even JNJ arguably the greatest DGI stock of them all faced similar price declines and stagnation as recently as 2010 during their tylenol recalls. When you buy the best companies and those companies go through periods of stagnation or even short term crisis it doesn't take a lot of good news (change in sentiment/earnings beat etc.) to send the price upwards. And it often happens very quickly (look at MCD going from 90 to 120 in a matter of months).

Buy quality. Hold FOREVER. And laugh your ass off at all the fools who try to time the market, think that 2 years is long term LOL or think that dividend growth investing is as you put it a "fools errand"


Here's a good article by Tim McAleenan Jr. that talks about stagnating prices and also re-investing at lower rates http://theconservativeincomeinvestor.com...ar-review/

Some takeaways from that article:

"But great businesses go through extended periods of not creating wealth. Johnson & Johnson didn’t create wealth during the 2000s, Hershey stagnated from 2004 through 2009, and heck, Coca-Cola shareholders lost 30% of their value from 1972 through 1981 (before compounding at 27% annually during the 1980s)."

"People grow impatient and sell their stakes, and then the next investor comes along and earns outsized returns because they get to capture both subsequent business performance and valuation improvement to reflect what should have been accretive to you."

[crimsonghost747]

gymchamp. Yes as long as the company is able to continue to grow steadily, that shareprice will recover at some point. But that's the thing... not all companies do that. It's easy to pick 3 companies that are hitting all time highs now and say "look at that dip there, if you sold you made the wrong choice" but you can just as easily find companies that were once generating a nice profit but have been on the decline ever since.

I certainly agree with the phrase "buy quality and hold forever" but as I can't predict the future I do sometimes end up selling some of my holdings (sometimes for a profit, sometimes for a loss) simply because the situation and the companies in question change. A company that was high quality a few years ago might not be high quality today. Nokia is a great example that comes to mind... a lot of people made a lot of money with Nokia back in the day but right now it certainly isn't the company it used to be... and I'm not sure if it ever will be.

[navyasw02]

gymchamp - I agree on buy and hold, I'm just saying there's a limit.  There are a lot of quality companies that dont succeed.  Kodak, Lehman Bros, Enron, MCI to name a few were quality in their day.  Rewind to 1996 and who would have ever thought Yahoo would be where it is now?  There's a difference in selling because stock price slumps and because the business slumps.  I simply dont have faith that Gilead has a strong growth strategy and my money is finite.  I'd rather put it into a company that does.

[DividendGarden]

Added to LB. At these levels (52-week low), I think it's a good use of pooled dividends.