(05-21-2015, 01:08 PM)Roadmap2Retire Wrote: (05-18-2015, 02:38 PM)EricL Wrote: Sold my position in Baxter (BAX) and opened a new position in Chatham Lodging Trust (CLDT).
Surprised to see that you sold BAX. Its been on my radar, but did I miss something? The upcoming spinoff should be good, no?
I realize there are a few unknowns about the dividends. Is that the reason for the sale?
The recent dividend announcement was the 5th in a row at the current $0.52 per share level and the current payout ratio based on 2015 earnings estimates of $4.00 is 54%.
Management provided guidance on Monday for the dividend policy of the two companies after spinoff of 35% for
BAX and 15% for BXLT, both of which are well below the current payout ratio. They also failed to provide any sort of earnings guidance, just goals for revenue growth, margins and cash flows.
The company has a relatively short history as a dividend growth stock and I'm not convinced that dividend growth is a focus of management. The company also had a 5YR trailing EPS growth rate of just 1.8% and analyst estimates are for low single digit growth going forward.
With a target payout ratios of 35% and 15%, I think there is a decent chance of a dividend cut in the next couple quarters, and if no cut, I expect a frozen dividend from
BAX until the payout ratio gets to the 35% target. With a current yield right around 3% and my own low expectations for growth going forward, I felt there are better opportunities out there.
My replacement CLDT has a much higher yield at 4.3%, has grown dividends and FFO at a 20%+ clip since coming public and is projected to grow at a 20%+ rate going forward. It is in a more cyclical industry as a hotel REIT, but at just a $1B market cap has a ton of room to grow.
I still own ABC, ABBV, GILD, MNK, OHI and WBA for health related companies, so still feel I have plenty of exposure to the sector.