(01-04-2021, 01:32 PM)Otter Wrote:

(01-04-2021, 01:02 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(01-04-2021, 12:55 PM)Otter Wrote: Under the Dems take Georgia scenario, the legislative filibuster also remains in place (there aren't 50 votes to change it at the start of the new Senate term). So, absent reconciliation, which can't be used in a way that increases the deficit, nothing gets done without 60 votes. The Dems barely scraped together 60 votes to pass the Affordable Care Act in 2009, and only after removing contentious pieces of the House Bill, like a public option.

House majority is much narrower than it was in the last Congress, as well. No one on the House/Senate side is going to want to stick their neck out on anything contentious like Cap and Trade, financial services regulations, etc., when a single Senator (King, Manchin, Tester) can sink the bill, and nothing like that can get to 60 votes in the Senate. Pork (mainly via defense bills) will be the only item on the menu.

Assured gridlock and the market like that.  Some of my REP friends actually cashed out of the market when it became apparent Biden won because a DEM Prez will surely cause a market crash.  Yeah that's not been my experience the past 35 years or so.  If you can't make money with either party in charge you better school yourself up on how this works.

Hopefully defense contractors like LMT keep getting taken to the woodshed. I'd like to add more shares. Only went up 400% during Obama's 8 year term.

(01-04-2021, 01:42 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(01-04-2021, 01:32 PM)Otter Wrote:

(01-04-2021, 01:02 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(01-04-2021, 12:55 PM)Otter Wrote: Under the Dems take Georgia scenario, the legislative filibuster also remains in place (there aren't 50 votes to change it at the start of the new Senate term). So, absent reconciliation, which can't be used in a way that increases the deficit, nothing gets done without 60 votes. The Dems barely scraped together 60 votes to pass the Affordable Care Act in 2009, and only after removing contentious pieces of the House Bill, like a public option.

House majority is much narrower than it was in the last Congress, as well. No one on the House/Senate side is going to want to stick their neck out on anything contentious like Cap and Trade, financial services regulations, etc., when a single Senator (King, Manchin, Tester) can sink the bill, and nothing like that can get to 60 votes in the Senate. Pork (mainly via defense bills) will be the only item on the menu.

Assured gridlock and the market like that.  Some of my REP friends actually cashed out of the market when it became apparent Biden won because a DEM Prez will surely cause a market crash.  Yeah that's not been my experience the past 35 years or so.  If you can't make money with either party in charge you better school yourself up on how this works.

Hopefully defense contractors like LMT keep getting taken to the woodshed. I'd like to add more shares. Only went up 400% during Obama's 8 year term.

Yeah this is political.  I am glad I went somewhat slow accumulating defense contractors.  It works out in the end.  The contracts are crazy long and the world isn't getting safer.  Reality is this administration spiked defense spending to an obscene level if you are objective at all.  It's not getting better soon but the PEs are just fine.  I'll add a few share now but I am still adding slow.    If I was truly bold I would sell a put.  We aren't that low yet.  MIL Defense is a long game.

(01-05-2021, 12:09 PM)vbin Wrote: oil today. bought more OXY. If Dems winning Georgia, what happens to oil?lol

(01-05-2021, 12:30 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(01-05-2021, 12:09 PM)vbin Wrote: oil today. bought more OXY. If Dems winning Georgia, what happens to oil?lol

What could possibly go wrong?  Is it OK that I picture you wearing an Exxon-Mobil hat while trading oil stocks?  

Seriously though I think the REPs will win one seat.  The RINOS are about to get powerful because if you lose only one you aren't passing or blocking anything. We'll see how my prediction plays out.  I have this feeling we won't know until WED or THU.  Prepare to play the volatility.  

Sold a MSFT put at 207.50.  Closed an APD put so now I have move cash.  Working on a few more put sells.  Feeling like I need a little dry powder for the next few days.  Should be a few opportunities before the market runs again.