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(05-12-2021, 01:26 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: (05-11-2021, 03:07 PM)fenders53 Wrote: They made like 4 cents eps. If would have been ugly If they laid an egg. The put premiums are stupid good. EZ to walk down as long as it's choppy.
That is the adjusted EPS. And it's all adjustments, not real profit.
Adjusted is all the street cares about now. In any event they did about what the street expected supposedly. I've always wondered why the market gets so excited about a penny miss or beat because they can manipulate it that much.
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(05-12-2021, 01:49 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (05-12-2021, 01:26 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: (05-11-2021, 03:07 PM)fenders53 Wrote: They made like 4 cents eps. If would have been ugly If they laid an egg. The put premiums are stupid good. EZ to walk down as long as it's choppy.
That is the adjusted EPS. And it's all adjustments, not real profit.
Adjusted is all the street cares about now. In any event they did about what the street expected supposedly. I've always wondered why the market gets so excited about a penny miss or beat because they can manipulate it that much.
You may be right, but it doesn't change the fact that it's just a way to manipulate the EPS nowadays. Adjustments, I believe, were once included so that you could indeed adjust for big one time things, such as mergers etc. Now it's just a way to continuously, quarter after quarter, year after year, make the EPS seem higher than it is.
I'm looking for companies that I can comfortably hold for 30-40 years, there needs to be real profit and EPS too instead of just adjustments for decades  I always keep my eyes on the real EPS, and then I do have a look at WHAT they have been adjusting for.
PLTR, for example, had 114 million LOSS from operations. That is a negative margin of around 30%.
Then they adjust for around 230 million for "stock based compensation" and related items. For reference, this adjustment is almost 70% of revenue.
And voila, positive EPS!
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05-12-2021, 05:51 AM
(This post was last modified: 05-12-2021, 05:58 AM by fenders53.)
(05-11-2021, 09:12 AM)divmenow Wrote: (05-11-2021, 09:08 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (05-11-2021, 09:06 AM)divmenow Wrote: (05-11-2021, 09:00 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (05-11-2021, 08:47 AM)divmenow Wrote: Way to go... . Join the ENPH club lol
I also took a new position in PXD thanks to the secondary at $153
I needed to add another name in the sector to go along with CVX and EOG
now the only other sector I'm underweight in is leisure
Dude I am a charter member of ENPH. I made a few hundred a month the past year selling short puts while it ran. I have a few short puts that are WAY in the money after this bloodbath. I can only roll forward so much before I own $140 shares. I said here many times I was good with adding a real position starting at $125. If I am honest I need ENPH to head back to $120ish to be back to even. I wasn;t aggressive enough when it was truly cheap. I'll add shares to my growthy port in the meantime.
Yeah yeah. What ever floats your boat lol
I am very good with owning ENPH long-term. How happy I am in the end very much depends on the entry. We'll see where the bottom is soon enough.
Well me too. Got in at $108.90
This will be a big winner for years to come. You have to add at some point, so why not today. I don't worry about making a few $ here and there . I'm in to win it lol
Are we having fun today
(05-12-2021, 02:28 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: (05-12-2021, 01:49 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (05-12-2021, 01:26 AM)crimsonghost747 Wrote: (05-11-2021, 03:07 PM)fenders53 Wrote: They made like 4 cents eps. If would have been ugly If they laid an egg. The put premiums are stupid good. EZ to walk down as long as it's choppy.
That is the adjusted EPS. And it's all adjustments, not real profit.
Adjusted is all the street cares about now. In any event they did about what the street expected supposedly. I've always wondered why the market gets so excited about a penny miss or beat because they can manipulate it that much.
You may be right, but it doesn't change the fact that it's just a way to manipulate the EPS nowadays. Adjustments, I believe, were once included so that you could indeed adjust for big one time things, such as mergers etc. Now it's just a way to continuously, quarter after quarter, year after year, make the EPS seem higher than it is.
I'm looking for companies that I can comfortably hold for 30-40 years, there needs to be real profit and EPS too instead of just adjustments for decades I always keep my eyes on the real EPS, and then I do have a look at WHAT they have been adjusting for.
PLTR, for example, had 114 million LOSS from operations. That is a negative margin of around 30%.
Then they adjust for around 230 million for "stock based compensation" and related items. For reference, this adjustment is almost 70% of revenue.
And voila, positive EPS!
I get all that, but I still wish I hadn't missed a 10Xer from TSLA while they sold energy credits and never made a dime from operations.  Modern finance is amazing. I missed out on a lot of great swing trades last year because I got all picky and expected companies to actually make money lol.
And I have no strong opinion on PLTR other than it's very clear the traders love the stock. Turns more volume than a blue chip sometimes. I could end up owning shares a little lower than here. If they continue to consume revenue growth with stock compensation they are going to be compensating themselves with five dollar shares.
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I am going to get bit on a purchase of ARRY. Inflationary input and transportation costs are starting to get real if you can't pass it on to the customer. I am seeing it at HD as well. Lumber is to the moon of course. Constant price changes on even little items. Sold a home entry door to a customer on JAN 19th for $4950. I had a need to look the price up yesterday and the identical door is no over $5400. That is a substantial price increase for a discretionary item somebody can usually just delay the purchase of. I guess this shouldn't be amazing with steel up 300%, packaging and shipping costs up 50% in some cases.
I'll do more DD before I buy significant shares or sell a put on anything to make sure guidance is current enough. I am good with owning ARRY as they are profitable already but the stock is surely going to get hammered some more this week.
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(02-25-2021, 10:25 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (02-25-2021, 10:00 AM)divmenow Wrote: Bought some LDOS. Between the earnings miss and short report I haven’t seen it this low in a while. So I said why not lol. You in on this one too Fenders ?
I haven't researched it. Hadn't heard of it until you and Otter were discussing it last week. I am trying to not add too many more new names. We'll see how long that lasts.
What I need is for tech to get hammered for real again, but this market is resilient.
Very small trades this morning. Added a few shares to DG-ARKF Sold a few SLV puts.
(05-11-2021, 07:04 PM)fenders53 Wrote: (05-11-2021, 05:14 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: Just saying hi. I stuck to my guns and didn't even look at my portfolio today. I may actually not look until June 1st.
Seems to have calmed down for now.
That's good. This year has been crazy! Jan through Mid Feb, crazy up, Mid Feb through Mid March, crazy down, mid March through Mid April, crazy up, mid April through now, crazy down. I'm sure it will take my portfolio weeks to recover from all of this, but I'd prefer it recover in small increments, not huge jumps.
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(05-11-2021, 09:12 AM)divmenow Wrote: (05-11-2021, 09:08 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (05-11-2021, 09:06 AM)divmenow Wrote: (05-11-2021, 09:00 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (05-11-2021, 08:47 AM)divmenow Wrote: Way to go... . Join the ENPH club lol
I also took a new position in PXD thanks to the secondary at $153
I needed to add another name in the sector to go along with CVX and EOG
now the only other sector I'm underweight in is leisure
Dude I am a charter member of ENPH. I made a few hundred a month the past year selling short puts while it ran. I have a few short puts that are WAY in the money after this bloodbath. I can only roll forward so much before I own $140 shares. I said here many times I was good with adding a real position starting at $125. If I am honest I need ENPH to head back to $120ish to be back to even. I wasn;t aggressive enough when it was truly cheap. I'll add shares to my growthy port in the meantime.
Yeah yeah. What ever floats your boat lol
I am very good with owning ENPH long-term. How happy I am in the end very much depends on the entry. We'll see where the bottom is soon enough.
Well me too. Got in at $108.90
This will be a big winner for years to come. You have to add at some point, so why not today. I don't worry about making a few $ here and there . I'm in to win it lol
Are we having fun today
(05-12-2021, 07:06 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: (02-25-2021, 10:25 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (02-25-2021, 10:00 AM)divmenow Wrote: Bought some LDOS. Between the earnings miss and short report I haven’t seen it this low in a while. So I said why not lol. You in on this one too Fenders ?
I haven't researched it. Hadn't heard of it until you and Otter were discussing it last week. I am trying to not add too many more new names. We'll see how long that lasts.
What I need is for tech to get hammered for real again, but this market is resilient.
Very small trades this morning. Added a few shares to DG-ARKF Sold a few SLV puts.
(05-11-2021, 07:04 PM)fenders53 Wrote: (05-11-2021, 05:14 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: Just saying hi. I stuck to my guns and didn't even look at my portfolio today. I may actually not look until June 1st.
Seems to have calmed down for now.
That's good. This year has been crazy! Jan through Mid Feb, crazy up, Mid Feb through Mid March, crazy down, mid March through Mid April, crazy up, mid April through now, crazy down. I'm sure it will take my portfolio weeks to recover from all of this, but I'd prefer it recover in small increments, not huge jumps.
3X doesn't work like that usually. It's a rollercoaster by design. I think we have choppiness in store. I predicted that at least a quarter before it actually happened. There is just too much going on, both positive and negative, for this market to find sustained direction. That's just more of my opinion.
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Looks to be spooked again by inflation. Definitely not looking today either.
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That actually makes a lot of sense.
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Added a little more QQQ and AVGO. Decent sized starter position in PENN. I'll add some DKNG when the falling knife act subsides. Some of my sin stock tobacco money is headed to gambling but gradually. Added some ARRY while it is getting destroyed today. May nibble a bit more solar today. I have a ways to go to fill that sector and now seems like an OK time to add while the reality of increased costs is settling in.
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(05-12-2021, 11:02 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Added a little more QQQ and AVGO. Decent sized starter position in PENN. I'll add some DKNG when the falling knife act subsides. Some of my sin stock tobacco money is headed to gambling but gradually. Added some ARRY while it is getting destroyed today. May nibble a bit more solar today. I have a ways to go to fill that sector and now seems like an OK time to add while the reality of increased costs is settling in.
I will start to nibble on PENN at $45. No support until then. No reason to jump in yet. The shorts and hedge funds aren’t anywhere close to being done. And why would they. And all those margin calls will continue to be a burden. Cathie Wood sold most of her DKNG today at a big loss. All these so called experts are clueless. They are no longer buying good companies. They bought the hype and now they have to sell those names to cover there losses thus putting more presume on the tech sector. SOXL may go under $10. The correction has started. You have big down days, followed by a rally and then relentless selling again. Put your money under your mattress for safe keeping lol
Let’s not forget most people are cashing out now because they don’t want to pay those hefty capital gains hit. People are once again going to lose hope and the market will go down the tubes. This is a fear by most and it’s real.
I bought UVXY and bought some puts.
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