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(04-22-2020, 12:45 PM)stockguru Wrote: What's the hurry on DIS??
60% of Disney operating $$$ comes from parks and they are closed possibly to end of the year ..Stock is down only 33% YTD. Sure their subscriber growth for Disney plus it up this month only because people are sitting home with nothing to do. Same with NFLX. But that wont last.
People are going to be reluctant to fly and travel for a while. I like DIS but wont buy until its under $90
T is on my watch list.
I think the reality is people are running out of quality stocks to buy that are actually down is the problem. They are buying pharma like they are scared to miss out while the stocks are at ATHs with guidance cut or completely withdrawn this week. It's blind investing and none of this makes much sense to me. It's panic buying that may or may not work out.
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DIS is one of my smaller positions. I got it yesterday under $100. I added a very small amount to a small position. I am in the process of growing the position. If it drops below $90, I will be buying more and at a larger amount. I am nowhere near a full position on DIS and wouldn't be at these levels. If I waited to fully buy DIS when it got to where I would want it, I would be sitting on a ton of cash. I don't like sitting on cash, so I buy small amounts when it gets a little bit more attractive price.
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(04-22-2020, 01:01 PM)ChadR Wrote: DIS is one of my smaller positions. I got it yesterday under $100. I added a very small amount to a small position. I am in the process of growing the position. If it drops below $90, I will be buying more and at a larger amount. I am nowhere near a full position on DIS and wouldn't be at these levels. If I waited to fully buy DIS when it got to where I would want it, I would be sitting on a ton of cash. I don't like sitting on cash, so I buy small amounts when it gets a little bit more attractive price.
The market is fully aware of DIS short-term outlook. If you want to own it averaging in is a good plan IMO. It's 35%+ down so much of the risk should be factored in, unlike may other stocks I'd like to buy.
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Bought a lot of stuff today. The total list is:
ABC, ADM, ADP, AVGO, BIP, CMI (new to the portfolio), DIS, EMR, FB, FRT (new to the portfolio, owned it a while back), GD, GILD, GS, HON (new), JPM, LEG, MMM, NNN, NUE, O, ORCL, PFE, SON, T, TD, TROW, VFC, VZ, WBA
A common theme is cyclicals (industrials, materials) and REITs that are way down compared to the rest of the market.
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While I hold a full position in O at a good price level, I think REITs are going to be rough as we enter the new economy. Do not think it is lost on businesses that they can drastically reduce their brick and mortar operations and nary miss a beat.
There is going to be huge pressure on commercial and retail real estate values going forward.
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(04-22-2020, 03:37 PM)NilesMike Wrote: While I hold a full position in O at a good price level, I think REITs are going to be rough as we enter the new economy. Do not think it is lost on businesses that they can drastically reduce their brick and mortar operations and nary miss a beat.
There is going to be huge pressure on commercial and retail real estate values going forward.
Yes, but these REITs are priced as if those values are going to drop 50%. Same scenario with Dividend King/Aristocrat industrials, the handful of Aristocrat materials companies, and a number of financials. 50% off sales are nice. I doubt I will regret most of those purchases over a 5 year time horizon.
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If the market retests the March lows, it is going to be the companies that rebounded to within 10% of all-time-highs that are going to take the biggest beating. A number of sectors have not recovered meaningfully from being taken out to the woodshed. The only one of those that I didn't invest in today was Energy.
Initiated a small position in Unilever NV.
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(04-22-2020, 03:49 PM)Otter Wrote: If the market retests the March lows, it is going to be the companies that rebounded to within 10% of all-time-highs that are going to take the biggest beating. A number of sectors have not recovered meaningfully from being taken out to the woodshed. The only one of those that I didn't invest in today was Energy.
Since we are speculating.... I agree with some of the points.
Some of the retail and office REITs may well be priced where they should be because of the rent horror story. There will be closures and rent in arrears for some time to come if it ever gets paid at all. REITs were frothy before the CV. Not certain brick and mortar is dead though. If there is liquidity there will be new renters eventually. Anyway I don't see all of them as a steal yet. They look correctly priced with the limited data available.
I have no idea if the market will retest MAR lows due to the epic FED intervention. I do think some sectors will test their lows though. The stimulus will save some, but it can't be endless or we will have monetary problems. The attempt to save small BIZ was ineffective so far, and that will trickle up IMO. I think persistent unemployment is a real risk. IF we do crash MSFT and AMZN and the usual defensives may still be a safer place than the beaten up stocks. Airlines, autos and energy are clearly damaged, and there are a lot of supplier companies downstream that are going to feel it for many quarters. You can add more industries to that list. There are way too many companies sitting near their DEC 19 prices.
As investors we need transparency from corporate leadership and I am not so sure we get it for another quarter.
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Had a buy order in for TGT. Just got filled at $95.50 pre market.
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(04-23-2020, 07:54 AM)divmenow Wrote: Had a buy order in for TGT. Just got filled at $95.50 pre market.
Wow! That's nice... Someone probably made a mistake filling extended hours sell order.
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(04-23-2020, 04:49 AM)fenders53 Wrote: (04-22-2020, 03:49 PM)Otter Wrote: If the market retests the March lows, it is going to be the companies that rebounded to within 10% of all-time-highs that are going to take the biggest beating. A number of sectors have not recovered meaningfully from being taken out to the woodshed. The only one of those that I didn't invest in today was Energy.
Since we are speculating.... I agree with some of the points.
Some of the retail and office REITs may well be priced where they should be because of the rent horror story. There will be closures and rent in arrears for some time to come if it ever gets paid at all. REITs were frothy before the CV. Not certain brick and mortar is dead though. If there is liquidity there will be new renters eventually. Anyway I don't see all of them as a steal yet. They look correctly priced with the limited data available.
I have no idea if the market will retest MAR lows due to the epic FED intervention. I do think some sectors will test their lows though. The stimulus will save some, but it can't be endless or we will have monetary problems. The attempt to save small BIZ was ineffective so far, and that will trickle up IMO. I think persistent unemployment is a real risk. IF we do crash MSFT and AMZN and the usual defensives may still be a safer place than the beaten up stocks. Airlines, autos and energy are clearly damaged, and there are a lot of supplier companies downstream that are going to feel it for many quarters. You can add more industries to that list. There are way too many companies sitting near their DEC 19 prices.
As investors we need transparency from corporate leadership and I am not so sure we get it for another quarter.
I still think Dividend Kings/Aristocrats 50% off their highs are a better value and safer play than those within 10% of their highs.
I'm not investing in airlines, dry bulk shipping, or other companies/sectors that have never been able to put two nickels together for more than a couple years (or months) at a time.
On the REIT front, I think some aren't going to be okay. I think FRT, NNN, and O are about as safe a play as it gets in the sector, given their long track record, high quality property portfolios, and the fact that they had the best credit ratings before this all started (and should continue to have the best in the sector). Their cost of capital will remain lower than competitors.
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