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My top ten positions as of the end of 2023.
AVGO 5.48%
WSO 3.87%
LOW 3.53%
MSFT 3.48%
EOG 2.96%
UNH 2.93%
XOM 2.86%
LMT 2.66%
ABBV 2.66%
CVX 2.60%
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01-10-2024, 07:24 AM
(This post was last modified: 01-10-2024, 07:25 AM by ken-do-nim.)
By the way, I will share my portfolio when I overhaul it sometime around 2026. In the middle of 2023, I completely switched up my portfolio to be mostly homebuilder stocks & funds. Homebuilders are in a sweet spot until mortgage rates get low enough that existing home sales become competition again, but that won't happen experts say until mortgage rates reach about 5%, when all these people with mortgage rates in the 3s and 4s are expected to say, "Good enough" and try to upgrade their homes. Whenever that happens, I will switch back to a diversified DGI portfolio, but until now I am riding the wave. My first half year doing this was awesome.
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(01-10-2024, 07:24 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: By the way, I will share my portfolio when I overhaul it sometime around 2026. In the middle of 2023, I completely switched up my portfolio to be mostly homebuilder stocks & funds. Homebuilders are in a sweet spot until mortgage rates get low enough that existing home sales become competition again, but that won't happen experts say until mortgage rates reach about 5%, when all these people with mortgage rates in the 3s and 4s are expected to say, "Good enough" and try to upgrade their homes. Whenever that happens, I will switch back to a diversified DGI portfolio, but until now I am riding the wave. My first half year doing this was awesome.
I've been thinking about builders but haven't gone there yet--they had a hell of a run--but lots of "certain" stocks had great runs in 2023.
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01-14-2024, 09:33 AM
(This post was last modified: 01-14-2024, 09:34 AM by ken-do-nim.)
(01-13-2024, 05:57 AM)rayray Wrote: (01-10-2024, 07:24 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: By the way, I will share my portfolio when I overhaul it sometime around 2026. In the middle of 2023, I completely switched up my portfolio to be mostly homebuilder stocks & funds. Homebuilders are in a sweet spot until mortgage rates get low enough that existing home sales become competition again, but that won't happen experts say until mortgage rates reach about 5%, when all these people with mortgage rates in the 3s and 4s are expected to say, "Good enough" and try to upgrade their homes. Whenever that happens, I will switch back to a diversified DGI portfolio, but until now I am riding the wave. My first half year doing this was awesome.
I've been thinking about builders but haven't gone there yet--they had a hell of a run--but lots of "certain" stocks had great runs in 2023.
Sure that's a great point. Toll Brothers went up 80% in the last year, but Broadcom went up 91% in the last year. Pulte Group is up 105% in the last year, but Nvidia is up 209% in the last year. However, Toll Brothers has a P/E of 8.20, Pulte Group 8.51, whereas Broadcom is 33.59 and Nvidia 72.24, and I think the best is yet to come for homebuilders. That said, the last time I looked at Nvidia's P/E ratio, it was 120, so that's a legitimately awesome company.
And in all of this, quiet Eli Lilly just keeps printing money too. Up 79% in the past year, 451% in the past 5 years, and is just consistently up every day. Admittedly the P/E is 116.
So that's pretty much my top 5 at the moment.
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(01-14-2024, 09:33 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: (01-13-2024, 05:57 AM)rayray Wrote: (01-10-2024, 07:24 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: By the way, I will share my portfolio when I overhaul it sometime around 2026. In the middle of 2023, I completely switched up my portfolio to be mostly homebuilder stocks & funds. Homebuilders are in a sweet spot until mortgage rates get low enough that existing home sales become competition again, but that won't happen experts say until mortgage rates reach about 5%, when all these people with mortgage rates in the 3s and 4s are expected to say, "Good enough" and try to upgrade their homes. Whenever that happens, I will switch back to a diversified DGI portfolio, but until now I am riding the wave. My first half year doing this was awesome.
I've been thinking about builders but haven't gone there yet--they had a hell of a run--but lots of "certain" stocks had great runs in 2023.
Sure that's a great point. Toll Brothers went up 80% in the last year, but Broadcom went up 91% in the last year. Pulte Group is up 105% in the last year, but Nvidia is up 209% in the last year. However, Toll Brothers has a P/E of 8.20, Pulte Group 8.51, whereas Broadcom is 33.59 and Nvidia 72.24, and I think the best is yet to come for homebuilders. That said, the last time I looked at Nvidia's P/E ratio, it was 120, so that's a legitimately awesome company.
And in all of this, quiet Eli Lilly just keeps printing money too. Up 79% in the past year, 451% in the past 5 years, and is just consistently up every day. Admittedly the P/E is 116.
So that's pretty much my top 5 at the moment.
Don't forget to look at the F/PE's--that's important too--when F/PE is lower than PE it's usually good
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(01-20-2024, 08:17 AM)rayray Wrote: (01-14-2024, 09:33 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: (01-13-2024, 05:57 AM)rayray Wrote: (01-10-2024, 07:24 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: By the way, I will share my portfolio when I overhaul it sometime around 2026. In the middle of 2023, I completely switched up my portfolio to be mostly homebuilder stocks & funds. Homebuilders are in a sweet spot until mortgage rates get low enough that existing home sales become competition again, but that won't happen experts say until mortgage rates reach about 5%, when all these people with mortgage rates in the 3s and 4s are expected to say, "Good enough" and try to upgrade their homes. Whenever that happens, I will switch back to a diversified DGI portfolio, but until now I am riding the wave. My first half year doing this was awesome.
I've been thinking about builders but haven't gone there yet--they had a hell of a run--but lots of "certain" stocks had great runs in 2023.
Sure that's a great point. Toll Brothers went up 80% in the last year, but Broadcom went up 91% in the last year. Pulte Group is up 105% in the last year, but Nvidia is up 209% in the last year. However, Toll Brothers has a P/E of 8.20, Pulte Group 8.51, whereas Broadcom is 33.59 and Nvidia 72.24, and I think the best is yet to come for homebuilders. That said, the last time I looked at Nvidia's P/E ratio, it was 120, so that's a legitimately awesome company.
And in all of this, quiet Eli Lilly just keeps printing money too. Up 79% in the past year, 451% in the past 5 years, and is just consistently up every day. Admittedly the P/E is 116.
So that's pretty much my top 5 at the moment.
Don't forget to look at the F/PE's--that's important too--when F/PE is lower than PE it's usually good
Unreliable though. Lemme see ... TSLA has a current P/E of 68, forward of 56, so that's good, except ... it's almost always wrong.
12/31/2022 - the p/e was 38, with a forward of 24. Did they hit it? No, on 3/32/2023, the p/e was 57, with a forward of 54. Did they hit it? No, on 6/30/2023, the p/e was 77, with a forward of 76. Did they hit it? Yes, on 9/30/2023, the p/e was 71, with a forward of 55. Did they hit it? No, because it's 68 today. Chances are they won't hit the 56 that's forecast.
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Tesla is a very hard company to analyze
For me it's an accumulation period stock holding, I'm taking a "risk" but think I will be well rewarded within the next 5 years.
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NVDA has run away in the number one spot, it's beating the number 2 holding Alphabet by over 100k
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(02-24-2024, 09:28 AM)rayray Wrote: NVDA has run away in the number one spot, it's beating the number 2 holding Alphabet by over 100k
On the flipside ...
NVDA's P/E is in the 60s
GOOG's P/E is in the 20s
Which is the better buy right now? Hard to say.
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(02-26-2024, 08:42 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: On the flipside ...
NVDA's P/E is in the 60s
GOOG's P/E is in the 20s
Which is the better buy right now? Hard to say.
Hard to say, with momentum, future growth projections and a F/PE of 26 I'd say NVDA
GOOG F/PE is 17 with a lower growth outlook and some tailwinds with management with some flubs
it seems that Alphabet has become complacent in recent years--I know someone that works for Alphabet makes about 400k per year not including stock, I swear he never works--between vacations and his wife's yoga studio he's busy with everything but work--he fought tooth and nail not to report back to the office--well yea of course lol.
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