https://DividendGrowthForum.com/ Thu, 30 Apr 2026 02:44:04 +0000 MyBB https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2258 Mon, 03 Mar 2025 20:33:24 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2258
Anyone else feeling a bit more anxious about their investments these days?]]>
Anyone else feeling a bit more anxious about their investments these days?]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2239 Fri, 13 Jan 2023 19:49:57 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2239 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congres...-rcna65725

I've read elsewhere that if we have an event like in 2011, stocks will lose about a third of their current value.]]> https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congres...-rcna65725

I've read elsewhere that if we have an event like in 2011, stocks will lose about a third of their current value.]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2199 Wed, 16 Mar 2022 13:39:30 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2199
The London Metal Exchange (LME) halted nickel trading on its electronic system almost immediately on Wednesday in a chaotic resumption of business for a market that has been in limbo for over a week.

The LME nickel market was suspended on March 8 after China's Tsingshan Holding Group bought large amounts of nickel, propelling the metal up more than 50% in a matter of hours.]]>
The London Metal Exchange (LME) halted nickel trading on its electronic system almost immediately on Wednesday in a chaotic resumption of business for a market that has been in limbo for over a week.

The LME nickel market was suspended on March 8 after China's Tsingshan Holding Group bought large amounts of nickel, propelling the metal up more than 50% in a matter of hours.]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2187 Thu, 17 Feb 2022 19:26:23 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2187
1. Josh's question
2. Provide guidance to soothe her investors they have a steady hand at the wheel and why they should stick with her given the present market environment / and rotation.

I don't believe I am being harsh, Cathie may be brilliant for all I know, but she has no grasp that this is peoples hard earned monies they have invested with her, and she did nothing to comfort them during the interview (tone deaf) that her funds can rebound (or at least hit a floor) in this present environment when she has such high concentration in out of favor stocks.

I suppose their are those who can afford to have dead monies for an unknown number of years willing to ride it out to see if her thesis proves out. - But she should at least be honest and have stated that those unwilling should not invest in these funds. I've met a lot of Cathie Wood's in my investment lifetime - It never ends well for the retail investor. Will stick within my little sphere of competence and employ my version of the Geraldine Weiss Approach - Dividends don't Lie

- Scoot

“The best investments have a considerable margin of safety. This is Benjamin Graham’s concept of buying at a sufficient discount that even bad luck or the vicissitudes of the business cycle won’t derail an investment. ”- Seth Klarman]]>
1. Josh's question
2. Provide guidance to soothe her investors they have a steady hand at the wheel and why they should stick with her given the present market environment / and rotation.

I don't believe I am being harsh, Cathie may be brilliant for all I know, but she has no grasp that this is peoples hard earned monies they have invested with her, and she did nothing to comfort them during the interview (tone deaf) that her funds can rebound (or at least hit a floor) in this present environment when she has such high concentration in out of favor stocks.

I suppose their are those who can afford to have dead monies for an unknown number of years willing to ride it out to see if her thesis proves out. - But she should at least be honest and have stated that those unwilling should not invest in these funds. I've met a lot of Cathie Wood's in my investment lifetime - It never ends well for the retail investor. Will stick within my little sphere of competence and employ my version of the Geraldine Weiss Approach - Dividends don't Lie

- Scoot

“The best investments have a considerable margin of safety. This is Benjamin Graham’s concept of buying at a sufficient discount that even bad luck or the vicissitudes of the business cycle won’t derail an investment. ”- Seth Klarman]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2185 Wed, 16 Feb 2022 15:10:05 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2185 what the macro future holds, but in areas entailing great uncertainty,
agnosticism is probably wiser than self-delusion". - Howard Marks

- Scoot]]> what the macro future holds, but in areas entailing great uncertainty,
agnosticism is probably wiser than self-delusion". - Howard Marks

- Scoot]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2182 Sun, 13 Feb 2022 19:43:17 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2182
Note: During the period of 1978 through 1981, the Fed pushed up short-term rates so that they were much higher than were long-term rates. This is an inversion of the typical yield curve, which is a plot of interest rates versus maturities. The inverted yield curve meant that it took a while for mortgage rates to approach the astronomical heights of the Fed funds rate. But by late 1981, mortgage rates peaked at 18.45%.

1980
Inflation in 1980 13.5%
A three-month CD in December 1980 earned 18.65%
Average cost of a gallon of regular gas: $1.25 / 2022 dollars $4.26
Average cost of a dozen eggs: $0.91 / 2022 dollars $3.10
Average cost of a gallon of Milk: $2.16 / 2022 dollars $7.37

IMHO, The fed needs to adopt a very "slow and steady" Fed funds rate approach, so as not too overshoot..
- Lest folks forget we do not need to revisit the late 70's early 80's. - The music was good, but other than that......

Just thoughts as I head off to barn, Hoof trimming day.
- Scoot]]>
Note: During the period of 1978 through 1981, the Fed pushed up short-term rates so that they were much higher than were long-term rates. This is an inversion of the typical yield curve, which is a plot of interest rates versus maturities. The inverted yield curve meant that it took a while for mortgage rates to approach the astronomical heights of the Fed funds rate. But by late 1981, mortgage rates peaked at 18.45%.

1980
Inflation in 1980 13.5%
A three-month CD in December 1980 earned 18.65%
Average cost of a gallon of regular gas: $1.25 / 2022 dollars $4.26
Average cost of a dozen eggs: $0.91 / 2022 dollars $3.10
Average cost of a gallon of Milk: $2.16 / 2022 dollars $7.37

IMHO, The fed needs to adopt a very "slow and steady" Fed funds rate approach, so as not too overshoot..
- Lest folks forget we do not need to revisit the late 70's early 80's. - The music was good, but other than that......

Just thoughts as I head off to barn, Hoof trimming day.
- Scoot]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2175 Mon, 07 Feb 2022 19:26:03 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2175
Surging prices of the raw materials needed for your refrigerators, automobiles, window frames and plumbing show no signs of abating as America’s supply-chain crisis spills into another year. John Gillespie is seeing the issues continue to mount across the country. The commodity manager for Superior Essex helps supply a large chunk of the metal wiring that electrifies U.S. homes and power grids and said the shipping and logistics charges for copper and aluminum are the most significant increase as part of the all-in cost.

Ongoing pandemic-triggered snarls are boosting the cost of trucks and rail cars to move things around, causing delays in shipping materials to consumers. Manufacturers of products are paying a record price to get hold of copper and aluminum.

"Boats are stuck out at sea and rail doesn’t have enough staff, so rail yards are crowded and my material is stuck behind 1,500 cars so they have to dig that out and it takes days to do that. The perfect storm is having a ripple effect and people are calling for metal, but the material is just not there.” - John Gillespie (commodity manager for Superior Essex, one of the nation’s largest suppliers of wiring)


- Scoot


“It is not the profit margin of the past but those of the future that are basically important to the investor.” Higher inflation raises a company’s expenses and, coupled with competition,  will compress profit margins. Eyes have to be on how a company’s strategy will  reduce costs and improve profit margins over the long term. - ― Philip A. Fisher]]>
Surging prices of the raw materials needed for your refrigerators, automobiles, window frames and plumbing show no signs of abating as America’s supply-chain crisis spills into another year. John Gillespie is seeing the issues continue to mount across the country. The commodity manager for Superior Essex helps supply a large chunk of the metal wiring that electrifies U.S. homes and power grids and said the shipping and logistics charges for copper and aluminum are the most significant increase as part of the all-in cost.

Ongoing pandemic-triggered snarls are boosting the cost of trucks and rail cars to move things around, causing delays in shipping materials to consumers. Manufacturers of products are paying a record price to get hold of copper and aluminum.

"Boats are stuck out at sea and rail doesn’t have enough staff, so rail yards are crowded and my material is stuck behind 1,500 cars so they have to dig that out and it takes days to do that. The perfect storm is having a ripple effect and people are calling for metal, but the material is just not there.” - John Gillespie (commodity manager for Superior Essex, one of the nation’s largest suppliers of wiring)


- Scoot


“It is not the profit margin of the past but those of the future that are basically important to the investor.” Higher inflation raises a company’s expenses and, coupled with competition,  will compress profit margins. Eyes have to be on how a company’s strategy will  reduce costs and improve profit margins over the long term. - ― Philip A. Fisher]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2173 Sat, 05 Feb 2022 00:48:11 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2173 https://www.fidelity.com/insights/person...2022-taxes
The IRS tax tables are getting a bigger-than-usual adjustment this year, thanks to the rising cost of living.

Wage earners
Retirement savers
Social Security recipients
Investors with taxable accounts

Thought I would pass along for those with interest
- Scoot

If you cant pay it back, Pay it forward when you can.]]> https://www.fidelity.com/insights/person...2022-taxes
The IRS tax tables are getting a bigger-than-usual adjustment this year, thanks to the rising cost of living.

Wage earners
Retirement savers
Social Security recipients
Investors with taxable accounts

Thought I would pass along for those with interest
- Scoot

If you cant pay it back, Pay it forward when you can.]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2159 Tue, 25 Jan 2022 08:23:04 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2159
Loved that quote!!!]]>
Loved that quote!!!]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2157 Sat, 22 Jan 2022 16:38:00 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2157
"In general", investors would make superior investment decisions if they ignored daily share-price movements and focused on the medium- long term prospects for the underlying investment and looked at the price in comparison to those prospects. By ignoring daily commentary regarding share prices, investors would overcome a dangerous source of information bias in the investment decision-making process. - Hamish Douglass (Magellen Group)

>

"Price fluctuations have only one significant meaning for the true investor. They provide him with an opportunity to buy wisely when prices fall sharply and to sell wisely when they advance a great deal. At other times he will do better if he forgets about the stock market and pays attention to his dividend returns and to the operating results of his companies".- Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor

"Don’t pay too much heed to the daily ebb and flow of the markets. In the short run, people get excited and stocks get way overpriced. Then a sell-off happens, the stock price goes down, and that sends [price-earnings ratios] lower. The long-term investor should pay no attention to that. The stock market is a distraction to the business of investing".- John Bogle]]>
"In general", investors would make superior investment decisions if they ignored daily share-price movements and focused on the medium- long term prospects for the underlying investment and looked at the price in comparison to those prospects. By ignoring daily commentary regarding share prices, investors would overcome a dangerous source of information bias in the investment decision-making process. - Hamish Douglass (Magellen Group)

>

"Price fluctuations have only one significant meaning for the true investor. They provide him with an opportunity to buy wisely when prices fall sharply and to sell wisely when they advance a great deal. At other times he will do better if he forgets about the stock market and pays attention to his dividend returns and to the operating results of his companies".- Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor

"Don’t pay too much heed to the daily ebb and flow of the markets. In the short run, people get excited and stocks get way overpriced. Then a sell-off happens, the stock price goes down, and that sends [price-earnings ratios] lower. The long-term investor should pay no attention to that. The stock market is a distraction to the business of investing".- John Bogle]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2150 Thu, 13 Jan 2022 14:28:34 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2150

No One knows the future .... NO ONE - “Don't underestimate the value of Doing Nothing, of just going along, listening to all the things you can't hear, and not bothering.”― A.A. Milne

… Well, everybody's talking and no one says a word
Always something happening and nothing going on,
… Everybody's runnin' and no one makes a move,
Well, everybody's a winner,And nothing left to lose,

There's a little yellow idol to the north of Katmandu......

Nobody told me there'd be days like these
Nobody told me there'd be days like these
 Strange days indeed, Most peculiar, mama.... - John Lennon

>

When logic and proportion have fallen sloppy dead
And the white knight is talking backwards
And the red queen's off with her head
Remember what the dormouse said
Feed your head, feed your head - White Rabbit

- Scoot

“The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” — John Kenneth Galbraith

“Forecasters tend to learn less and less about more and more, until in the end they know nothing about everything.”Edgar Fiedler

"Use an appropriate "margin of safety" to manage risk. This way, you will not lose too much when you are wrong, and you will make much more when you are right. This way you can let your portfolio generate higher than market returns with less risk, in a sustainable and stable way"- Li Lu]]>

No One knows the future .... NO ONE - “Don't underestimate the value of Doing Nothing, of just going along, listening to all the things you can't hear, and not bothering.”― A.A. Milne

… Well, everybody's talking and no one says a word
Always something happening and nothing going on,
… Everybody's runnin' and no one makes a move,
Well, everybody's a winner,And nothing left to lose,

There's a little yellow idol to the north of Katmandu......

Nobody told me there'd be days like these
Nobody told me there'd be days like these
 Strange days indeed, Most peculiar, mama.... - John Lennon

>

When logic and proportion have fallen sloppy dead
And the white knight is talking backwards
And the red queen's off with her head
Remember what the dormouse said
Feed your head, feed your head - White Rabbit

- Scoot

“The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” — John Kenneth Galbraith

“Forecasters tend to learn less and less about more and more, until in the end they know nothing about everything.”Edgar Fiedler

"Use an appropriate "margin of safety" to manage risk. This way, you will not lose too much when you are wrong, and you will make much more when you are right. This way you can let your portfolio generate higher than market returns with less risk, in a sustainable and stable way"- Li Lu]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2146 Mon, 10 Jan 2022 02:17:37 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2146 In latest Stock Market News
Helium was up
Feather pillows were down
Paper was stationary
Elevators rose
Knives fell sharply
Pencils lost a few points
Mining equipment hit rock bottom
Diapers remained unchanged
Hiking equipment was trailing
Fluorescent tubing was dimmed in light trading
Escalators continued their slow decline
Weights were up in heavy trading
The market for raisins dried up
Balloon prices were inflated
Northern Tissue touched a new bottom,  - millions of investors were wiped clean.

My buddy sold all his Nike stock .. Said It was a good run. ]]> In latest Stock Market News
Helium was up
Feather pillows were down
Paper was stationary
Elevators rose
Knives fell sharply
Pencils lost a few points
Mining equipment hit rock bottom
Diapers remained unchanged
Hiking equipment was trailing
Fluorescent tubing was dimmed in light trading
Escalators continued their slow decline
Weights were up in heavy trading
The market for raisins dried up
Balloon prices were inflated
Northern Tissue touched a new bottom,  - millions of investors were wiped clean.

My buddy sold all his Nike stock .. Said It was a good run. ]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2141 Fri, 07 Jan 2022 02:01:08 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2141
The Rewind - Uncertainty (12/20/2021)

Audio Here -https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/...ncertainty

Ypu can also download in .pdf format if you would rather read.]]>
The Rewind - Uncertainty (12/20/2021)

Audio Here -https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/...ncertainty

Ypu can also download in .pdf format if you would rather read.]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2131 Thu, 30 Dec 2021 01:22:36 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2131 first stock market crash on the New York Stock Exchange, caused in part by struggles between E. H. Harriman, Jacob Schiff, and J. P. Morgan/James J. Hill for the financial control of the Northern Pacific Railway.

The stock cornering (having the greatest market share in a particular industry without having a monopoly). was orchestrated by James Stillman and William Rockefeller's First National City Bank financed with Standard Oil money. Harriman, who was chairman of the executive committee of the Union Pacific speculated heavily with Union Pacific holdings, and his attempt to monopolize the Chicago rail market led to the Panic.

The panic began when the market crashed during the afternoon of May 8. Investors did not see it coming, but by 1:00 pm, the decline in the market was beginning to show. First came the gradual decline in Burlington stock. It had been high all morning, but suddenly a sharp weakness came about. Prices of stocks such as St. Paul, Missouri Pacific, and Union Pacific began to fall. Soon enough, the whole market was drowning. Investors who had once held on tightly to their stocks were selling out of panic. Others caught on and an overwhelming cry of "Sell! Sell! Sell!" was heard throughout the floor of the New York Stock Exchange During the selling, a rumor spread among traders that Arthur Housman, broker for J.P. Morgan, had died. Housman, the head of A.A. Housman & Company, was brought to the floor of the New York Stock Exchange to assure traders that J.P. Morgan was still doing business........As a result of the panic, thousands of small investors were ruined.

As Paul Harvey would say.. "Now you know the rest of the story".

 All Enjoy Your evening. 
- Scoot]]> first stock market crash on the New York Stock Exchange, caused in part by struggles between E. H. Harriman, Jacob Schiff, and J. P. Morgan/James J. Hill for the financial control of the Northern Pacific Railway.

The stock cornering (having the greatest market share in a particular industry without having a monopoly). was orchestrated by James Stillman and William Rockefeller's First National City Bank financed with Standard Oil money. Harriman, who was chairman of the executive committee of the Union Pacific speculated heavily with Union Pacific holdings, and his attempt to monopolize the Chicago rail market led to the Panic.

The panic began when the market crashed during the afternoon of May 8. Investors did not see it coming, but by 1:00 pm, the decline in the market was beginning to show. First came the gradual decline in Burlington stock. It had been high all morning, but suddenly a sharp weakness came about. Prices of stocks such as St. Paul, Missouri Pacific, and Union Pacific began to fall. Soon enough, the whole market was drowning. Investors who had once held on tightly to their stocks were selling out of panic. Others caught on and an overwhelming cry of "Sell! Sell! Sell!" was heard throughout the floor of the New York Stock Exchange During the selling, a rumor spread among traders that Arthur Housman, broker for J.P. Morgan, had died. Housman, the head of A.A. Housman & Company, was brought to the floor of the New York Stock Exchange to assure traders that J.P. Morgan was still doing business........As a result of the panic, thousands of small investors were ruined.

As Paul Harvey would say.. "Now you know the rest of the story".

 All Enjoy Your evening. 
- Scoot]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2126 Tue, 28 Dec 2021 21:17:59 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2126 It’s different this time.” Lenders and investors invariably depart from time-honored disciplines when cycles move to extremes, out of a belief that current conditions are different from those that prevailed in the past, when those disciplines were appropriate. And just as invariably, they’re shown that cycles repeat and nothing really changes.- Howard Marks]]> It’s different this time.” Lenders and investors invariably depart from time-honored disciplines when cycles move to extremes, out of a belief that current conditions are different from those that prevailed in the past, when those disciplines were appropriate. And just as invariably, they’re shown that cycles repeat and nothing really changes.- Howard Marks]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2093 Fri, 17 Dec 2021 01:18:45 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2093 On March 10, 2000, the very day that the NASDAQ composite index hit its all-time high of 5048.62, Prudential Securities chief technical analyst Ralph Acampora said in USA Today that he expected NASDAQ to hit 6000 within 12 to 18 months. Five weeks later, NASDAQ had already shriveled to 3321.29

Thomas Galvin, a market strategist at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, declared that “there’s only 200 or 300 points of downside for the NASDAQ and 2000 on the upside.” It turned out that there were no points on the upside and more than 2000 on the downside, as NASDAQ kept crashing until it finally scraped bottom on October 9, 2002, at 1114.11.

In March 2001, Abby Joseph Cohen, chief investment strategist at Goldman, Sachs & Co., predicted that the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index would close the year at 1,650 and that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would finish 2001 at 13,000. “We do not expect a recession,” said Cohen, “and believe that corporate profits are likely to grow at close to trend growth rates later this year.” The U.S. economy was sinking into recession even as she spoke, and the S & P 500 ended 2001 at 1148.08, while the Dow finished at 10,021.50—30% and 23% below her forecasts, respectively.
>
"The farther one gets from Wall Street, the more skepticism one will find, we believe, as to the pretensions of stock-market forecasting or timing. The investor can scarcely take seriously the innumerable predictions which appear almost daily and are his for the asking. Yet in many cases he pays attention to them and even acts upon them. Why? Because he has been persuaded that it is important for him to form some opinion of the future course of the stock market, and because he feels that the brokerage or service forecast is at least more dependable than his own". - Benjamin Graham The intelligent Investor

While the interests of Wall Street’s businesses are well served by the aphorism “Don’t just stand there—do something!,” the interests of Main Street’s investors are well served by an approach that is its diametrical opposite: “Don’t do something—just stand there! - John Bogle

Just thoughts (others mileage may vary, and usually does)
- Scoot

• "The foresight of financial experts was, as so often, a poor guide to the future" — John Kenneth Galbraith
  

• "Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future.”— Warren Buffet
  

• "The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” — John Kenneth Galbraith
  

• "The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers."— Edgar Fielder
  

• Forecasters tend to learn less and less about more and more, until in the end they know nothing about everything.”— Edgar Fiedler
  

]]> On March 10, 2000, the very day that the NASDAQ composite index hit its all-time high of 5048.62, Prudential Securities chief technical analyst Ralph Acampora said in USA Today that he expected NASDAQ to hit 6000 within 12 to 18 months. Five weeks later, NASDAQ had already shriveled to 3321.29

Thomas Galvin, a market strategist at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, declared that “there’s only 200 or 300 points of downside for the NASDAQ and 2000 on the upside.” It turned out that there were no points on the upside and more than 2000 on the downside, as NASDAQ kept crashing until it finally scraped bottom on October 9, 2002, at 1114.11.

In March 2001, Abby Joseph Cohen, chief investment strategist at Goldman, Sachs & Co., predicted that the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index would close the year at 1,650 and that the Dow Jones Industrial Average would finish 2001 at 13,000. “We do not expect a recession,” said Cohen, “and believe that corporate profits are likely to grow at close to trend growth rates later this year.” The U.S. economy was sinking into recession even as she spoke, and the S & P 500 ended 2001 at 1148.08, while the Dow finished at 10,021.50—30% and 23% below her forecasts, respectively.
>
"The farther one gets from Wall Street, the more skepticism one will find, we believe, as to the pretensions of stock-market forecasting or timing. The investor can scarcely take seriously the innumerable predictions which appear almost daily and are his for the asking. Yet in many cases he pays attention to them and even acts upon them. Why? Because he has been persuaded that it is important for him to form some opinion of the future course of the stock market, and because he feels that the brokerage or service forecast is at least more dependable than his own". - Benjamin Graham The intelligent Investor

While the interests of Wall Street’s businesses are well served by the aphorism “Don’t just stand there—do something!,” the interests of Main Street’s investors are well served by an approach that is its diametrical opposite: “Don’t do something—just stand there! - John Bogle

Just thoughts (others mileage may vary, and usually does)
- Scoot

• "The foresight of financial experts was, as so often, a poor guide to the future" — John Kenneth Galbraith
  

• "Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future.”— Warren Buffet
  

• "The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” — John Kenneth Galbraith
  

• "The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers."— Edgar Fielder
  

• Forecasters tend to learn less and less about more and more, until in the end they know nothing about everything.”— Edgar Fiedler
  

]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2072 Mon, 13 Dec 2021 21:17:30 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2072 “The stock market is but a mirror which provides an image of the underlying or fundamental economic situation. Cause and effect run from the economy to the stock market, never the reverse. In 1929 the economy was headed for trouble. Eventually that trouble was violently reflected in Wall Street.” — John Kenneth Galbraith]]> “The stock market is but a mirror which provides an image of the underlying or fundamental economic situation. Cause and effect run from the economy to the stock market, never the reverse. In 1929 the economy was headed for trouble. Eventually that trouble was violently reflected in Wall Street.” — John Kenneth Galbraith]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2053 Fri, 10 Dec 2021 03:18:00 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2053 https://www.investopedia.com/articles/in...payers.asp]]> https://www.investopedia.com/articles/in...payers.asp]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2047 Thu, 09 Dec 2021 15:23:41 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2047
In the real world people buy more when products go on sale However, in the financial world people invest less. This is backwards thinking for the DGI investor. Buffett always enjoyed the Ted Williams baseball analogy - Ted Williams approached batting in a methodical way, he worked out his optimal strike zone where the odds were in his favor and he maintained the discipline to only swing if the ball was in that zone. By the time Ted Williams retired he had a .344 batting average, 521 home runs, and a 0.482 on-base percentage, the highest of all time. 

John Bogle whom one could perhaps intelligently argue has done more to help the common retail investor that anyone in the financial industry stated - Don’t pay too much heed to the daily ebb and flow of the markets. In the short run, people get excited and stocks get way overpriced. Then a sell-off happens, the stock price goes down, and that sends [price-earnings ratios] lower. The long-term investor should pay no attention to that. The stock market is a distraction to the business of investing.

Cycles are all about excesses and their corrections. The DGI investor can benefit greatly by waiting for the right pitch in their optimal strike zone rather than chase Yield, stretched valuations, and overpriced securities; and letting “FOMO” take hold and drive their decision making during bull runs and striving to grasp for "Infinity and beyond"!! .The DGI investor should ensure to curtail their emotions when multiples/valuations become stretched and act with even greater prudence to minimize risk. The less prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater the prudence with which we should conduct our own.- Warren Buffett

For myself when excesses in the market occur, I prefer to adopt  the Winnie The Pooh's philosophy -
“Don't underestimate the value of Doing Nothing, of just going along, listening to all the things you can't hear, and not bothering.”― A.A. Milne

I believe a cup o' Joe with some nice slices of Toast and Honey is indeed in order, and awaits me in the kitchen on this cold wintry morning.
All enjoy your day,
-Scoot]]>
In the real world people buy more when products go on sale However, in the financial world people invest less. This is backwards thinking for the DGI investor. Buffett always enjoyed the Ted Williams baseball analogy - Ted Williams approached batting in a methodical way, he worked out his optimal strike zone where the odds were in his favor and he maintained the discipline to only swing if the ball was in that zone. By the time Ted Williams retired he had a .344 batting average, 521 home runs, and a 0.482 on-base percentage, the highest of all time. 

John Bogle whom one could perhaps intelligently argue has done more to help the common retail investor that anyone in the financial industry stated - Don’t pay too much heed to the daily ebb and flow of the markets. In the short run, people get excited and stocks get way overpriced. Then a sell-off happens, the stock price goes down, and that sends [price-earnings ratios] lower. The long-term investor should pay no attention to that. The stock market is a distraction to the business of investing.

Cycles are all about excesses and their corrections. The DGI investor can benefit greatly by waiting for the right pitch in their optimal strike zone rather than chase Yield, stretched valuations, and overpriced securities; and letting “FOMO” take hold and drive their decision making during bull runs and striving to grasp for "Infinity and beyond"!! .The DGI investor should ensure to curtail their emotions when multiples/valuations become stretched and act with even greater prudence to minimize risk. The less prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater the prudence with which we should conduct our own.- Warren Buffett

For myself when excesses in the market occur, I prefer to adopt  the Winnie The Pooh's philosophy -
“Don't underestimate the value of Doing Nothing, of just going along, listening to all the things you can't hear, and not bothering.”― A.A. Milne

I believe a cup o' Joe with some nice slices of Toast and Honey is indeed in order, and awaits me in the kitchen on this cold wintry morning.
All enjoy your day,
-Scoot]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2033 Tue, 07 Dec 2021 01:41:46 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2033
The broad trend of "mid-cycle expansion" continued for many major economies, including the U.S. and Europe, with economic reopening generally supporting activity. However, supply constraints and disruptions sapped some growth momentum, and many developing countries remained inhibited by their more limited vaccination and reopening progress. China slipped into a growth recession amid significantly decelerating activity.

On Marks -
"One of those most important things is knowing where we stand in the cycle. I don’t believe in forecasts. We always say, “We never know where we’re going, but we sure as hell ought to know where we are.” I can’t tell you what’s going to happen tomorrow, but I should be able to assess the current environment, and that’s the kind of thinking that helped us prepare for the crisis. I think that the two most important things are where we stand in the cycle and the broad subject of risk, and in fact, where we stand in the cycle is the primary determinant of risk". - Howard Marks

Why this is an important consideration for the DG portfolio ? -

Mid-cycle phase
Averaging nearly four years, the mid-cycle phase tends to be significantly longer than any other phase of the business cycle. As the economy moves beyond its initial stage of recovery and growth rates moderate during the mid cycle, the leadership of "economically sensitive assets" has typically tapered. On an absolute basis, stock market performance has tended to be fairly strong, though not as robust as in the early cycle phase,while bonds and cash have continued to post lower returns than equities in the mid cycle. This phase is also when most stock market corrections have taken place.

From a DG portfolio perspective  -
Taking into account present mid cycle and knowing the mid-cycle phase tends to be significantly longer than any other phase allows us to properly "position" the DG portfolio to not only increase investment share by building up share count in presently out of favor sector investments (Buy Low);  But  also helps us capture Business economic upside by "over-weighting"  DG investments within those sectors that historically have shown a track record of out-performance during the Mid-cycle Phase.


A good read for those with Interest - The Business Cycle Approach to Equity sector Investing.
https://www.fidelity.com/webcontent/ap10...h_2020.pdf

I have been augmenting my DG portfolio utilizing this method and approach with good results for decades.
My portfolio has never seen the Highs of Bull market Highs, However it has also never experienced the lows of bear market lows either... Just slow and steady Growth at a reasonable level of Risk (for me).

If you can't pay it back, Pay it forward when you can.
 - Scoot

fight your fights
find the grace
in all the things that you can't change
and help somebody if you can - Van Zant]]>
The broad trend of "mid-cycle expansion" continued for many major economies, including the U.S. and Europe, with economic reopening generally supporting activity. However, supply constraints and disruptions sapped some growth momentum, and many developing countries remained inhibited by their more limited vaccination and reopening progress. China slipped into a growth recession amid significantly decelerating activity.

On Marks -
"One of those most important things is knowing where we stand in the cycle. I don’t believe in forecasts. We always say, “We never know where we’re going, but we sure as hell ought to know where we are.” I can’t tell you what’s going to happen tomorrow, but I should be able to assess the current environment, and that’s the kind of thinking that helped us prepare for the crisis. I think that the two most important things are where we stand in the cycle and the broad subject of risk, and in fact, where we stand in the cycle is the primary determinant of risk". - Howard Marks

Why this is an important consideration for the DG portfolio ? -

Mid-cycle phase
Averaging nearly four years, the mid-cycle phase tends to be significantly longer than any other phase of the business cycle. As the economy moves beyond its initial stage of recovery and growth rates moderate during the mid cycle, the leadership of "economically sensitive assets" has typically tapered. On an absolute basis, stock market performance has tended to be fairly strong, though not as robust as in the early cycle phase,while bonds and cash have continued to post lower returns than equities in the mid cycle. This phase is also when most stock market corrections have taken place.

From a DG portfolio perspective  -
Taking into account present mid cycle and knowing the mid-cycle phase tends to be significantly longer than any other phase allows us to properly "position" the DG portfolio to not only increase investment share by building up share count in presently out of favor sector investments (Buy Low);  But  also helps us capture Business economic upside by "over-weighting"  DG investments within those sectors that historically have shown a track record of out-performance during the Mid-cycle Phase.


A good read for those with Interest - The Business Cycle Approach to Equity sector Investing.
https://www.fidelity.com/webcontent/ap10...h_2020.pdf

I have been augmenting my DG portfolio utilizing this method and approach with good results for decades.
My portfolio has never seen the Highs of Bull market Highs, However it has also never experienced the lows of bear market lows either... Just slow and steady Growth at a reasonable level of Risk (for me).

If you can't pay it back, Pay it forward when you can.
 - Scoot

fight your fights
find the grace
in all the things that you can't change
and help somebody if you can - Van Zant]]>