https://DividendGrowthForum.com/ Sat, 16 May 2026 21:26:04 +0000 MyBB https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2237 Tue, 03 Jan 2023 14:02:37 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2237 2022: $9093.58
2021: $4713.91
2020: $408.82

What will 2023 bring?  I have no idea.  I have some highly variable payers (ZIM, RIO, VALE), though I think $12k is a baseline.

********************************************************

How did your dividend engine fare in 2022 vs prior years?]]> 2022: $9093.58
2021: $4713.91
2020: $408.82

What will 2023 bring?  I have no idea.  I have some highly variable payers (ZIM, RIO, VALE), though I think $12k is a baseline.

********************************************************

How did your dividend engine fare in 2022 vs prior years?]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2236 Sun, 01 Jan 2023 06:43:36 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2236
Beginning 2022 my top 10 was...

1) Msft
2) aapl
3) xom
4) Nvda
5) mo
6) jnj
7) brk.b
8) shop
9) gild
10) PG


and now for 2023

1)msft
2)goog/googl
3)xom
4)aapl
5)amzn
6)nvda
7)brk.b
8)mo
9)abbv
10)bx


the only one i'm struggling with is MO--i'll most likely liquidate MO sometime this year--idk....maybe]]>
Beginning 2022 my top 10 was...

1) Msft
2) aapl
3) xom
4) Nvda
5) mo
6) jnj
7) brk.b
8) shop
9) gild
10) PG


and now for 2023

1)msft
2)goog/googl
3)xom
4)aapl
5)amzn
6)nvda
7)brk.b
8)mo
9)abbv
10)bx


the only one i'm struggling with is MO--i'll most likely liquidate MO sometime this year--idk....maybe]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2233 Thu, 22 Dec 2022 22:11:13 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2233
The criteria of the stocks in the portfolio are: Dividend Aristocrat, outperformed the S&P soundly with superior risk adjusted returns. They also had to outperform the S&P during the following periods: GFC 2007-2009, the flat decade 2000-2012 and long term 2000-2022. Long term performance 5.5X S&P with 1/2 drawdown of S&P.
Open for critique, here it goes:

MCD
ABT
LIN
HRL
O
BRO
BDX
CVX
CHD
GPC
SHW

Equally weighted and a percentage will be withdrawn from portfolio each year.]]>
The criteria of the stocks in the portfolio are: Dividend Aristocrat, outperformed the S&P soundly with superior risk adjusted returns. They also had to outperform the S&P during the following periods: GFC 2007-2009, the flat decade 2000-2012 and long term 2000-2022. Long term performance 5.5X S&P with 1/2 drawdown of S&P.
Open for critique, here it goes:

MCD
ABT
LIN
HRL
O
BRO
BDX
CVX
CHD
GPC
SHW

Equally weighted and a percentage will be withdrawn from portfolio each year.]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2222 Sat, 13 Aug 2022 20:03:17 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2222
At some point, my child support payments will end.  Could be as little as 3 years, could be as much as 6.  When that does happen, I see these possibilities:

1. Max out my 401k
   
2. Build up my taxable account
   
3. Build up my taxable account to a certain point (maybe $500k?), then switch to maxing out the 401k.
   
4. Do both; split the proceeds and increase my 401k savings, as well as increase my taxable account input.
   

Your thoughts?]]>
At some point, my child support payments will end.  Could be as little as 3 years, could be as much as 6.  When that does happen, I see these possibilities:

1. Max out my 401k
   
2. Build up my taxable account
   
3. Build up my taxable account to a certain point (maybe $500k?), then switch to maxing out the 401k.
   
4. Do both; split the proceeds and increase my 401k savings, as well as increase my taxable account input.
   

Your thoughts?]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2220 Fri, 08 Jul 2022 18:03:40 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2220 I just posted the following response to a recent article on Seeking Alpha. Just want to share with the community what a retired, RMD taking, run of the mill old school investor/stock traders' portfolio performance looks like in a down market...............................

As of yesterday my IRA is down 2.39%. I'm in the 7th year of RMD's and all RMD's come out of a second SEP retirement account that is all cash and CD's. Although the RMD's come exclusively out of the SEP account the amount of RMD's are based on the total balance of both portfolios (IRA_SEP) as required. No new money has been added to the IRA under discussion. This portfolio is designed to produce income and risk-off.

This portfolio is currently 66.83% stocks and 33.17% fixed income. The reason the portfolio has performed so well is because I was overweight in Energy at the beginning of the year (about 11%). The stock portion of the portfolio is about 90% Dividend Achievers and Dividend Aristocrats with some speculative holdings. The porfolio cash position ranges from 15-20% which is used for active trend and swing trading.

The periodic trading provides and incredible boost to portfolio returns. I rarely sell out of a position. I just buy and sell partial positions of these very stable large cap stocks at opportune times based on rules. I have used this rules based trading for about 15 years with success.

I track this IRA in real time with a very detailed Excel Workbook structured as follows:
Historical Performance (15 years of history)
Annual Budget
Summary & Annual Goals
Long Term CD's
Short Term CD's
Cash Balance and Interest Income
RMD's (with running balance of the SEP + projections) discussed in a recent SA Article.
Daily Stock Pricing
Summary Page (stocks, bond ETF's, CD's, Index ETF's and cash)
The workbook also includes individual spreadsheets for a summary of the 11 sectors as well as 80 plus individual stock, ETF's, and Bond ETF tabs to show all dividend and trading income for each holding.

No B.S. Only Facts and I do sleep well at night. :-)

Jul 8, 2022. 12:48 PMLink
How Much Have You Lost In Your 401(k) So Far This Year? - Ronald Surz]]> I just posted the following response to a recent article on Seeking Alpha. Just want to share with the community what a retired, RMD taking, run of the mill old school investor/stock traders' portfolio performance looks like in a down market...............................

As of yesterday my IRA is down 2.39%. I'm in the 7th year of RMD's and all RMD's come out of a second SEP retirement account that is all cash and CD's. Although the RMD's come exclusively out of the SEP account the amount of RMD's are based on the total balance of both portfolios (IRA_SEP) as required. No new money has been added to the IRA under discussion. This portfolio is designed to produce income and risk-off.

This portfolio is currently 66.83% stocks and 33.17% fixed income. The reason the portfolio has performed so well is because I was overweight in Energy at the beginning of the year (about 11%). The stock portion of the portfolio is about 90% Dividend Achievers and Dividend Aristocrats with some speculative holdings. The porfolio cash position ranges from 15-20% which is used for active trend and swing trading.

The periodic trading provides and incredible boost to portfolio returns. I rarely sell out of a position. I just buy and sell partial positions of these very stable large cap stocks at opportune times based on rules. I have used this rules based trading for about 15 years with success.

I track this IRA in real time with a very detailed Excel Workbook structured as follows:
Historical Performance (15 years of history)
Annual Budget
Summary & Annual Goals
Long Term CD's
Short Term CD's
Cash Balance and Interest Income
RMD's (with running balance of the SEP + projections) discussed in a recent SA Article.
Daily Stock Pricing
Summary Page (stocks, bond ETF's, CD's, Index ETF's and cash)
The workbook also includes individual spreadsheets for a summary of the 11 sectors as well as 80 plus individual stock, ETF's, and Bond ETF tabs to show all dividend and trading income for each holding.

No B.S. Only Facts and I do sleep well at night. :-)

Jul 8, 2022. 12:48 PMLink
How Much Have You Lost In Your 401(k) So Far This Year? - Ronald Surz]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2206 Thu, 31 Mar 2022 22:46:33 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2206 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2201 Sat, 19 Mar 2022 13:06:38 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2201
But first a very short Intro -

Graham said he wanted me to work on the next edition
of The Intelligent Investor, the popular version of his text-
book. “There are only two people I would ask to do this,”
he said. “You are one, and Warren Buffett is the other.”
“Who’s Warren Buffett?” I asked.A natural question. In
1970 Warren Buffett wasn’t known outside of Omaha,
Nebraska, or Ben Graham’s circle of friends...........

At Graham’s urging, I had several conversations with
Warren, and then I flew to Omaha to meet him, even
though I still didn’t think I was right for the job.............

I went to Warren’s house on Farnam Street, which he
had bought for $31,500 in 1958. It was a rambling, comfort-
able house..........

I said I didn’t want to work on Ben Graham’s book. War-
ren said he didn’t either. We wrote a note to Ben saying his
book didn’t really need any improvements........
- Adam Smith (SuperMoney)

Adam Smith was a pseudonym utilized by Author (George Goodman)
Borrowed from the real Adam Smith (A Scottish Economist) I suppose as an homage.

Why the above introduction ?
Well I love the wonderful little nuggets of history you can dig up via the web nowadays. It Just so happens George Goodman (author of SuperMoney) was also an economics broadcast commentator, and through his TV broadcast he introduced Warren Buffett to a wider audience of American investors.

Without further Ado - Here is Warren's interview with George Goodman circ 1985.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjSMeGprrkw]]>
But first a very short Intro -

Graham said he wanted me to work on the next edition
of The Intelligent Investor, the popular version of his text-
book. “There are only two people I would ask to do this,”
he said. “You are one, and Warren Buffett is the other.”
“Who’s Warren Buffett?” I asked.A natural question. In
1970 Warren Buffett wasn’t known outside of Omaha,
Nebraska, or Ben Graham’s circle of friends...........

At Graham’s urging, I had several conversations with
Warren, and then I flew to Omaha to meet him, even
though I still didn’t think I was right for the job.............

I went to Warren’s house on Farnam Street, which he
had bought for $31,500 in 1958. It was a rambling, comfort-
able house..........

I said I didn’t want to work on Ben Graham’s book. War-
ren said he didn’t either. We wrote a note to Ben saying his
book didn’t really need any improvements........
- Adam Smith (SuperMoney)

Adam Smith was a pseudonym utilized by Author (George Goodman)
Borrowed from the real Adam Smith (A Scottish Economist) I suppose as an homage.

Why the above introduction ?
Well I love the wonderful little nuggets of history you can dig up via the web nowadays. It Just so happens George Goodman (author of SuperMoney) was also an economics broadcast commentator, and through his TV broadcast he introduced Warren Buffett to a wider audience of American investors.

Without further Ado - Here is Warren's interview with George Goodman circ 1985.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjSMeGprrkw]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2198 Mon, 14 Mar 2022 23:42:23 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2198
LMT presently comprises 9.31% of my overall portfolio. (second largest holding, Berkshire now comprises a 20% capital investment of my overall portfolio)Defense budgets pass in bi-partisan fashion every year just like clockwork.

LMT defense contracts for Month of February -

Lockheed Martin Space, Littleton, Colorado, is awarded an $18,700,000 cost-plus-incentive-fee and cost-plus-fixed-fee unpriced letter contract modification for engineering development, systems integration, and long lead material procurement in support of missile production.

Lockheed Martin Corp., Syracuse, New York, is awarded a $9,050,510 cost-plus-incentive-fee for design, prototyping, and qualification testing of submarine electronic warfare equipment.

Lockheed Martin Corp., Rotary and Mission Systems, Syracuse, New York, is awarded a $7,996,684 fixed-price incentive fee contract modification for Navy systems and associated equipment.

Lockheed Martin Corp., Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Co., Fort Worth, Texas, is awarded a not-to-exceed $315,806,063 fixed-price incentive (firm target), cost-plus-incentive-fee, and cost-plus-fixed-fee, undefinitized for the procurement, delivery, installation, and configuration of F-35 Joint Strike Fighter support equipment and non-aircraft spares.

Lockheed Martin Rotary and Mission Systems, Owego, New York, is awarded a $28,579,847 firm-fixed-price modification to procure MH-60R/S aircraft mission computer (MC) and flight management computer (FMC) retrofit kits, wiring kits, and Lynx licenses.

Lockheed Martin Corp., Orlando, Florida, was awarded a $138,916,495 cost-plus-fixed-fee other transaction agreement for federation, testing and user operational assessments of the Spike non-line-of-sight missile system.

Lockheed Martin Corp., Grand Prairie, Texas, was awarded a $16,099,270 cost-plus-incentive-fee contract for Patriot Advanced Capability-3 flight test support.

Sikorsky Aircraft Corp., a Lockheed Martin Co., Stratford, Connecticut, is awarded a $372,040,552 fixed-price incentive (firm-target) for the production and delivery of four low-rate initial production, Lot 6, CH-53K Heavy Lift aircraft, as well as associated aircraft programmatic and logistical support for the government of Israel.

Lockheed Martin Rotary and Mission Systems, Manassas, Virginia, is awarded a $59,457,395 cost-plus-incentive fee for delivery of Technical Insertion-22 (TI-22) shore sites systems.

Lockheed Martin Rotary and Mission Systems, Owego, New York, is awarded a $12,561,887 cost-plus-incentive-fee for the development of preliminary software design, software coding, maturation, test, and integration for Link 16 Advanced Capabilities with the Multifunctional Information Distribution System Joint Tactical Radio System into the MH-60R/S aircraft

Sikorsky Aircraft Corp., a Lockheed Martin Co., Stratford, Connecticut, is awarded a $99,250,000 cost-plus-fixed-fee, cost reimbursable, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract. This contract provides products and support required to rapidly integrate and field VH-92A aircraft simulators and trainers in support of the Presidential Helicopter Program.

Lockheed Martin Corp., Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Co., Fort Worth, Texas, is awarded a $42,134,921 firm-fixed-price modification to procure ancillary mission equipment in support of F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Lot 16 production aircraft for the Navy, Marine Corps, Air Force, Foreign Military Sales customers, and non-U.S. Department of Defense participants.

Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company, Stratford, Connecticut, is awarded a $37,691,897 to procure 1,026 various spare parts for the CH-53K low rate initial production configuration aircraft.

Lockheed Martin Corp., Syracuse, New York, is awarded a $15,067,063 firm-fixed-price modification to exercise options for the procurement of submarine modernization kits, equipment, and installation.

The contract modification announced on Dec. 28, 2021, for $492,685,342 to Lockheed Martin Corp., Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Co., Fort Worth, Texas, to exercise options to provide logistics support for delivered F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter aircraft systems for the Air Force, Marine Corps, Navy, non-U.S. Department of Defense participants and Foreign Military Sales customers has been amended to $2,184,666,887.

Sikorsky Aircraft Corp., Stratford, Connecticut, was awarded a $42,152,263 cost-plus-fee, cost-no-fee, firm-fixed-price contract for non-personal technical services in support of sustainment of the H-60 Black Hawk helicopter.

Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Co., Stratford, Connecticut, is awarded a $36,007,409 cost-plus-fixed-fee order to provide a CH-53K Flight Control Computer (FCC) redesign due to obsolescence and will include non-recurring engineering efforts to integrate, test, and qualify an updated FCC.

Lockheed Martin Corp., Orlando, Florida, is awarded a $49,273,462 firm-fixed-price order to provide Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile integration and test effort for the Royal Australian Air Force F/A-18 E/F aircraft for the government of Australia.

Lockheed Martin Corp., Sunnyvale, California, has been awarded a $22,984,200 firm-fixed-price contract for Defense Meteorological Satellite Program spacecraft sustainment.

- Scoot]]>
LMT presently comprises 9.31% of my overall portfolio. (second largest holding, Berkshire now comprises a 20% capital investment of my overall portfolio)Defense budgets pass in bi-partisan fashion every year just like clockwork.

LMT defense contracts for Month of February -

Lockheed Martin Space, Littleton, Colorado, is awarded an $18,700,000 cost-plus-incentive-fee and cost-plus-fixed-fee unpriced letter contract modification for engineering development, systems integration, and long lead material procurement in support of missile production.

Lockheed Martin Corp., Syracuse, New York, is awarded a $9,050,510 cost-plus-incentive-fee for design, prototyping, and qualification testing of submarine electronic warfare equipment.

Lockheed Martin Corp., Rotary and Mission Systems, Syracuse, New York, is awarded a $7,996,684 fixed-price incentive fee contract modification for Navy systems and associated equipment.

Lockheed Martin Corp., Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Co., Fort Worth, Texas, is awarded a not-to-exceed $315,806,063 fixed-price incentive (firm target), cost-plus-incentive-fee, and cost-plus-fixed-fee, undefinitized for the procurement, delivery, installation, and configuration of F-35 Joint Strike Fighter support equipment and non-aircraft spares.

Lockheed Martin Rotary and Mission Systems, Owego, New York, is awarded a $28,579,847 firm-fixed-price modification to procure MH-60R/S aircraft mission computer (MC) and flight management computer (FMC) retrofit kits, wiring kits, and Lynx licenses.

Lockheed Martin Corp., Orlando, Florida, was awarded a $138,916,495 cost-plus-fixed-fee other transaction agreement for federation, testing and user operational assessments of the Spike non-line-of-sight missile system.

Lockheed Martin Corp., Grand Prairie, Texas, was awarded a $16,099,270 cost-plus-incentive-fee contract for Patriot Advanced Capability-3 flight test support.

Sikorsky Aircraft Corp., a Lockheed Martin Co., Stratford, Connecticut, is awarded a $372,040,552 fixed-price incentive (firm-target) for the production and delivery of four low-rate initial production, Lot 6, CH-53K Heavy Lift aircraft, as well as associated aircraft programmatic and logistical support for the government of Israel.

Lockheed Martin Rotary and Mission Systems, Manassas, Virginia, is awarded a $59,457,395 cost-plus-incentive fee for delivery of Technical Insertion-22 (TI-22) shore sites systems.

Lockheed Martin Rotary and Mission Systems, Owego, New York, is awarded a $12,561,887 cost-plus-incentive-fee for the development of preliminary software design, software coding, maturation, test, and integration for Link 16 Advanced Capabilities with the Multifunctional Information Distribution System Joint Tactical Radio System into the MH-60R/S aircraft

Sikorsky Aircraft Corp., a Lockheed Martin Co., Stratford, Connecticut, is awarded a $99,250,000 cost-plus-fixed-fee, cost reimbursable, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract. This contract provides products and support required to rapidly integrate and field VH-92A aircraft simulators and trainers in support of the Presidential Helicopter Program.

Lockheed Martin Corp., Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Co., Fort Worth, Texas, is awarded a $42,134,921 firm-fixed-price modification to procure ancillary mission equipment in support of F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Lot 16 production aircraft for the Navy, Marine Corps, Air Force, Foreign Military Sales customers, and non-U.S. Department of Defense participants.

Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company, Stratford, Connecticut, is awarded a $37,691,897 to procure 1,026 various spare parts for the CH-53K low rate initial production configuration aircraft.

Lockheed Martin Corp., Syracuse, New York, is awarded a $15,067,063 firm-fixed-price modification to exercise options for the procurement of submarine modernization kits, equipment, and installation.

The contract modification announced on Dec. 28, 2021, for $492,685,342 to Lockheed Martin Corp., Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Co., Fort Worth, Texas, to exercise options to provide logistics support for delivered F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter aircraft systems for the Air Force, Marine Corps, Navy, non-U.S. Department of Defense participants and Foreign Military Sales customers has been amended to $2,184,666,887.

Sikorsky Aircraft Corp., Stratford, Connecticut, was awarded a $42,152,263 cost-plus-fee, cost-no-fee, firm-fixed-price contract for non-personal technical services in support of sustainment of the H-60 Black Hawk helicopter.

Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Co., Stratford, Connecticut, is awarded a $36,007,409 cost-plus-fixed-fee order to provide a CH-53K Flight Control Computer (FCC) redesign due to obsolescence and will include non-recurring engineering efforts to integrate, test, and qualify an updated FCC.

Lockheed Martin Corp., Orlando, Florida, is awarded a $49,273,462 firm-fixed-price order to provide Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile integration and test effort for the Royal Australian Air Force F/A-18 E/F aircraft for the government of Australia.

Lockheed Martin Corp., Sunnyvale, California, has been awarded a $22,984,200 firm-fixed-price contract for Defense Meteorological Satellite Program spacecraft sustainment.

- Scoot]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2193 Fri, 04 Mar 2022 02:00:04 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2193 Quote:"The Mungers have Berkshire stock, Costco stock, Chinese stocks through Li Lu, a little bit of Daily Journal stock, and a bunch of apartment houses. Do I think that’s perfect? No. Do I think it’s okay? Yes. I think the great lesson from the Mungers is you don’t need all this damn diversification and that’s plenty. You’re lucky if you’ve got four good assets.

I think the finance professors that sell the idea that perfect diversification is professional investment… If you’re trying to do better than average, you’re lucky if you have four things to buy. And to ask for 20 is really asking for egg in your beer. Very few people have enough brains to get 20 good investments".


I concurr ]]> Quote:"The Mungers have Berkshire stock, Costco stock, Chinese stocks through Li Lu, a little bit of Daily Journal stock, and a bunch of apartment houses. Do I think that’s perfect? No. Do I think it’s okay? Yes. I think the great lesson from the Mungers is you don’t need all this damn diversification and that’s plenty. You’re lucky if you’ve got four good assets.

I think the finance professors that sell the idea that perfect diversification is professional investment… If you’re trying to do better than average, you’re lucky if you have four things to buy. And to ask for 20 is really asking for egg in your beer. Very few people have enough brains to get 20 good investments".


I concurr ]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2174 Sat, 05 Feb 2022 01:14:48 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2174
https://rationalthinking.net/beware-your-dividend-bias/

Excerpt -
"In the stock market, it’s easy to fool yourself. Decision-making is all about making good or bad outcomes. We all fall prone to what Annie Duke calls resulting: we judge the quality of our decisions on the outcome, not the other way around. But you can have a good outcome despite a bad decision, and you can have a bad outcome even though the quality of your decision was good.

The same goes for Dividend Investing. We get lured by receiving tangible payments and we forget the opportunity cost of the capital distribution. Warren Buffett has never walked into his office just to focus his investments on one asset class or one style of investments. Why should he limit himself? It doesn’t make much sense to potentially exclude many good investments. Dividend investors get obsessed with “income” and ignore the many other very viable options". - Oddmund Groette

Sound reliable Portfolio construction takes years, and should encompass many forms of investment securities, correlated and uncorrelated. Opinions vary, This one is mine.  -  Scoot

"I suppose it is tempting, if the only tool you have is a hammer, to treat everything as if it were a nail." - Abraham Maslow 1966]]>
https://rationalthinking.net/beware-your-dividend-bias/

Excerpt -
"In the stock market, it’s easy to fool yourself. Decision-making is all about making good or bad outcomes. We all fall prone to what Annie Duke calls resulting: we judge the quality of our decisions on the outcome, not the other way around. But you can have a good outcome despite a bad decision, and you can have a bad outcome even though the quality of your decision was good.

The same goes for Dividend Investing. We get lured by receiving tangible payments and we forget the opportunity cost of the capital distribution. Warren Buffett has never walked into his office just to focus his investments on one asset class or one style of investments. Why should he limit himself? It doesn’t make much sense to potentially exclude many good investments. Dividend investors get obsessed with “income” and ignore the many other very viable options". - Oddmund Groette

Sound reliable Portfolio construction takes years, and should encompass many forms of investment securities, correlated and uncorrelated. Opinions vary, This one is mine.  -  Scoot

"I suppose it is tempting, if the only tool you have is a hammer, to treat everything as if it were a nail." - Abraham Maslow 1966]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2172 Thu, 03 Feb 2022 23:09:44 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2172

Excerpt -
"I described the discussions that took place while Andrew and his family lived with Nancy and me in 2020 in Something of Value. That experience truly was of great value – an unexpected silver lining to the pandemic. That memo evoked the strongest reaction from readers of any of my memos to date".

Virtually all investors – even the best – diversify their portfolios. We may have a sense for which holding is the absolute best, but I’ve never heard of an investor with a one-asset portfolio. They may overweight favorites to take advantage of what they think they know, but they still diversify to protect against what they don’t know. THAT means they sub-optimize, potentially trading off some of their chance at a maximal return to increase the likelihood of a merely excellent one.

Here’s a related question from my reconstructed conversation with Andrew:

H: You run a concentrated portfolio. XYZ was a big position when you invested, and it’s even bigger today, given the appreciation. Intelligent investors concentrate portfolios and hold on to take advantage of what they know, but they diversify holdings and sell as things rise to limit the potential damage from what they don’t know. Hasn’t the growth in this position put our portfolio out of whack in that regard?

A: Perhaps that’s true, depending on your goals. "BUT TRIMMING would mean selling something I feel immense comfort with based on my bottom-up assessment and moving into something I feel less good about or know less well (or cash). To me, it’s far better to own a small number of things about which I feel strongly. I’ll only have a few good insights over my lifetime, so I have to maximize the few I have".

All professional investors want good investment performance for their clients, but they also want financial success for themselves. And amateurs have to invest within the limits of their risk tolerance. For these reasons, most investors – and certainly most investment managers’ clients – aren’t immune to apprehension regarding portfolio concentration and thus susceptibility to untoward developments. These considerations introduce valid reasons for limiting the size of individual asset purchases and trimming positions as they appreciate" - Excerpt from Howard's latest memo. Full memo here - https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/...elling-out

>

The older I got, the more I realized, I would rather have 4 Shiny Quarters, than 100 dull pennies.
Opinions vary (This one's mine)
- Scoot

“Most investors think diversification consists of holding many different things, few understand that diversification is effective only if portfolio holdings can be counted on to respond differently to a given development in the environment”- Howard Marks

"Is a relatively concentrated strategy really more risky for the investor? There’s no doubt that the concentrated portfolio will exhibit more volatility on average than a highly diversified one, but volatility isn’t a very useful descriptor of risk. If we think that risk is roughly equivalent to the probability of losing money on an investment, then perhaps we should ask, “are you more likely to lose money owning a concentrated portfolio or a highly diversified portfolio?”

The common sense answer is that it depends on what’s in each portfolio! - Howard Marks]]>

Excerpt -
"I described the discussions that took place while Andrew and his family lived with Nancy and me in 2020 in Something of Value. That experience truly was of great value – an unexpected silver lining to the pandemic. That memo evoked the strongest reaction from readers of any of my memos to date".

Virtually all investors – even the best – diversify their portfolios. We may have a sense for which holding is the absolute best, but I’ve never heard of an investor with a one-asset portfolio. They may overweight favorites to take advantage of what they think they know, but they still diversify to protect against what they don’t know. THAT means they sub-optimize, potentially trading off some of their chance at a maximal return to increase the likelihood of a merely excellent one.

Here’s a related question from my reconstructed conversation with Andrew:

H: You run a concentrated portfolio. XYZ was a big position when you invested, and it’s even bigger today, given the appreciation. Intelligent investors concentrate portfolios and hold on to take advantage of what they know, but they diversify holdings and sell as things rise to limit the potential damage from what they don’t know. Hasn’t the growth in this position put our portfolio out of whack in that regard?

A: Perhaps that’s true, depending on your goals. "BUT TRIMMING would mean selling something I feel immense comfort with based on my bottom-up assessment and moving into something I feel less good about or know less well (or cash). To me, it’s far better to own a small number of things about which I feel strongly. I’ll only have a few good insights over my lifetime, so I have to maximize the few I have".

All professional investors want good investment performance for their clients, but they also want financial success for themselves. And amateurs have to invest within the limits of their risk tolerance. For these reasons, most investors – and certainly most investment managers’ clients – aren’t immune to apprehension regarding portfolio concentration and thus susceptibility to untoward developments. These considerations introduce valid reasons for limiting the size of individual asset purchases and trimming positions as they appreciate" - Excerpt from Howard's latest memo. Full memo here - https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/...elling-out

>

The older I got, the more I realized, I would rather have 4 Shiny Quarters, than 100 dull pennies.
Opinions vary (This one's mine)
- Scoot

“Most investors think diversification consists of holding many different things, few understand that diversification is effective only if portfolio holdings can be counted on to respond differently to a given development in the environment”- Howard Marks

"Is a relatively concentrated strategy really more risky for the investor? There’s no doubt that the concentrated portfolio will exhibit more volatility on average than a highly diversified one, but volatility isn’t a very useful descriptor of risk. If we think that risk is roughly equivalent to the probability of losing money on an investment, then perhaps we should ask, “are you more likely to lose money owning a concentrated portfolio or a highly diversified portfolio?”

The common sense answer is that it depends on what’s in each portfolio! - Howard Marks]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2170 Thu, 03 Feb 2022 12:48:33 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2170 Now that the last two companies I wanted to take to full weight positions in our portfolios are approaching full positions (TU and STOR), I am hunting for the next one to add to the stable, in case that is the choice I make (instead of making any current positions overweight or more overweight). 

The four that come up in my screen for a deeper look are: ALL, BMO, SNA and TROW.

Not only that, but with the dividend reinvestments so far this year and with a few raises and NIE's special dividend, we a have reached the next intermediate way station in route to our main goal, namely the average monthly dividends now are a wee bit higher than both of Kathy's pensions combined.  Have been working on this for a decade, and the dividend growth (in dollars and cents) has been accelerating.  

Onward and upward.]]> Now that the last two companies I wanted to take to full weight positions in our portfolios are approaching full positions (TU and STOR), I am hunting for the next one to add to the stable, in case that is the choice I make (instead of making any current positions overweight or more overweight). 

The four that come up in my screen for a deeper look are: ALL, BMO, SNA and TROW.

Not only that, but with the dividend reinvestments so far this year and with a few raises and NIE's special dividend, we a have reached the next intermediate way station in route to our main goal, namely the average monthly dividends now are a wee bit higher than both of Kathy's pensions combined.  Have been working on this for a decade, and the dividend growth (in dollars and cents) has been accelerating.  

Onward and upward.]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2158 Sun, 23 Jan 2022 17:18:15 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2158
While other worker bees like myself on the tech team who received cash awards in our department spent their monies on trips, new cars and the like (one person even in-ground swimming pool), I purchased 2 BRK.A shares. They all thought I was nuts. I remember one guy saying com'on man live it up a little, there will be more awards next year.

Well the next year rolled around no more cash awards came our technical departments way. The business started struggling by mid 90's, as management was taking out more $$ than putting in (Private lease jets to business meetings, Huge Management bonuses, . financial engineering monkey business to achieve their management award incentives. Eventually by the late 90's the contracts all but dried up and I moved on to greener pastures.

I still invest to this day in Berkshire when the market provides opportunities (albeit through their B shares). However I will never part with those 2 class A shares. I have no plans ever convert them into B shares. My plan is to leave one share to each nephew when I am no longer here.

 - Scoot]]>
While other worker bees like myself on the tech team who received cash awards in our department spent their monies on trips, new cars and the like (one person even in-ground swimming pool), I purchased 2 BRK.A shares. They all thought I was nuts. I remember one guy saying com'on man live it up a little, there will be more awards next year.

Well the next year rolled around no more cash awards came our technical departments way. The business started struggling by mid 90's, as management was taking out more $$ than putting in (Private lease jets to business meetings, Huge Management bonuses, . financial engineering monkey business to achieve their management award incentives. Eventually by the late 90's the contracts all but dried up and I moved on to greener pastures.

I still invest to this day in Berkshire when the market provides opportunities (albeit through their B shares). However I will never part with those 2 class A shares. I have no plans ever convert them into B shares. My plan is to leave one share to each nephew when I am no longer here.

 - Scoot]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2147 Mon, 10 Jan 2022 21:44:43 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2147
So which sectors win and lose during inflation waves? - https://www.fidelity.com/insights/market...or-returns

- Scoot]]>
So which sectors win and lose during inflation waves? - https://www.fidelity.com/insights/market...or-returns

- Scoot]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2143 Sat, 08 Jan 2022 15:53:32 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2143
S&P 500 related ETFs that made up the bulk of the inflows.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV)
iShares Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF)
iShares Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV)
iShares Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE).

***Together these funds accounted for over 67% of inflows for the fist week of January***.

On the redemption side S&P 500 related ETFs that made up the bulk of the outflows were
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)
Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU).

Additionally,
Russell-related ETFs saw significant outflows from
iShares Russell 2000 ETF (RUT)
iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD)

as well as -

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK)
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI)

Hope some find this information useful,
Have an awesome weekend  -  Go Green Bay!!!
 - Scoot

“The stock market is but a mirror which provides an image of the underlying or fundamental economic situation. Cause and effect run from the economy to the stock market, never the reverse. — John Kenneth Galbraith]]>
S&P 500 related ETFs that made up the bulk of the inflows.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV)
iShares Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF)
iShares Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV)
iShares Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE).

***Together these funds accounted for over 67% of inflows for the fist week of January***.

On the redemption side S&P 500 related ETFs that made up the bulk of the outflows were
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)
Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU).

Additionally,
Russell-related ETFs saw significant outflows from
iShares Russell 2000 ETF (RUT)
iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD)

as well as -

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK)
iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI)

Hope some find this information useful,
Have an awesome weekend  -  Go Green Bay!!!
 - Scoot

“The stock market is but a mirror which provides an image of the underlying or fundamental economic situation. Cause and effect run from the economy to the stock market, never the reverse. — John Kenneth Galbraith]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2139 Thu, 06 Jan 2022 18:40:58 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2139
Excerpt: Howard Marks MEMOS - July 30 2021

For a piece of information to be desirable, it has to satisfy two criteria: it has to be
important, and it has to be knowable. – Warren Buffett

Regular readers of my memos know that Oaktree and I approach macro forecasts with a high degree
of skepticism. In fact, one of the six tenets of Oaktree’s investment philosophy states flatly that we
don’t base our investment decisions on macro forecasts..........

The reason for this is simple: to use Buffett’s terminology, we’re convinced the macro future
isn’t knowable......

Many investors think their job requires them to develop a macro outlook and invest according to its
dictates. Successful stock pickers or real estate buyers often make pronouncements regarding the
macro outlook, even in the absence of evidence linking their investment success to accurate macro
forecasts. Nonetheless, since macro developments are so influential, many people think it’s
downright irresponsible to ignore them when investing. Yet:

• Most macro forecasts are likely to turn out to be either (a) unhelpful consensus expectations
or (b) non-consensus forecasts that are rarely right.

• I can count on one hand the investors I know who successfully base their decisions on macro
forecasts. The rest invest from the bottom up, one investment at a time. They buy when they
think they’ve found bargains and sell things they consider overpriced – mostly without
reference to the macro outlook.

• It may be hard to admit – to yourself or to others – that you don’t know what the macro
future holds, but in areas entailing great uncertainty, agnosticism is probably wiser
than self-delusion.

Ark Funds.... (They are anything but Arks) Live by macro momentum, Die by macro momentum!!
I have met many a Cathie Woods in my life - It NEVER EVER ends well.

JMHO
- Scoot

It’s frightening to think that you might not know something, but more frightening to
think that, by and large, the world is run by people who have faith that they know
exactly what’s going on. – Amos Tversky

It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure
that just ain’t so. – Mark Twain]]>
Excerpt: Howard Marks MEMOS - July 30 2021

For a piece of information to be desirable, it has to satisfy two criteria: it has to be
important, and it has to be knowable. – Warren Buffett

Regular readers of my memos know that Oaktree and I approach macro forecasts with a high degree
of skepticism. In fact, one of the six tenets of Oaktree’s investment philosophy states flatly that we
don’t base our investment decisions on macro forecasts..........

The reason for this is simple: to use Buffett’s terminology, we’re convinced the macro future
isn’t knowable......

Many investors think their job requires them to develop a macro outlook and invest according to its
dictates. Successful stock pickers or real estate buyers often make pronouncements regarding the
macro outlook, even in the absence of evidence linking their investment success to accurate macro
forecasts. Nonetheless, since macro developments are so influential, many people think it’s
downright irresponsible to ignore them when investing. Yet:

• Most macro forecasts are likely to turn out to be either (a) unhelpful consensus expectations
or (b) non-consensus forecasts that are rarely right.

• I can count on one hand the investors I know who successfully base their decisions on macro
forecasts. The rest invest from the bottom up, one investment at a time. They buy when they
think they’ve found bargains and sell things they consider overpriced – mostly without
reference to the macro outlook.

• It may be hard to admit – to yourself or to others – that you don’t know what the macro
future holds, but in areas entailing great uncertainty, agnosticism is probably wiser
than self-delusion.

Ark Funds.... (They are anything but Arks) Live by macro momentum, Die by macro momentum!!
I have met many a Cathie Woods in my life - It NEVER EVER ends well.

JMHO
- Scoot

It’s frightening to think that you might not know something, but more frightening to
think that, by and large, the world is run by people who have faith that they know
exactly what’s going on. – Amos Tversky

It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure
that just ain’t so. – Mark Twain]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2136 Sun, 02 Jan 2022 11:25:20 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2136
This is my real-world portfolio. I retired effective 12/31/21 and intend to live almost completely on it from now on. I have a couple of partnerships that provide me with a little income each year but the amount I receive is not consistent and doesn't figure in my budgeting. It's also much less than my dividend income - I call partnership income my retirement version of a Christmas Bonus.

As I type this I have two accounts; a Taxable Account and a Roth. Both were opened on March 8, 2017. I also have a 403b I will rollover to an IRA after February 19, 2022, my 59.5th birthday.

Account Goals

Taxable Account: Provide me with sustainable, growing, dividend income. I will use this account to completely fund my retirement. Based on my pre-retirement budgeting I should be able to cover about 80% of my expenses from dividend income. The other 20% will come from a combination of saved cash and periodic sales; at this time those sales will be AAPL and GOOGL shares. I won't be completely passive here but other than these sales expect to do little trading here. I'm reasonably happy with what I own though I'm sure that as I pursue my quest to become the longest-lived Human Being in the history of the planet   that some companies will run into problems. Total return/value is not a primary goal of this account but it's always nice to have.

Roth: Total Return account. However I mostly want to buy companies for it that I believe I can hold forever. I will do some trading, mainly shares around a core/long position. While its goal is not dividend income I expect most companies will pay dividends.

IRA: Once I get there it will also be a TR account, managed the same as the Roth. Right now I can only own Mutual Funds in it but this will change with the roll over.

I have a pretty large emergency fund - bigger than it needs to be actually but every time I think about, say, cutting it in half, I don't.

I don't give investing advice. I'm not that smart. But I don't mind tossing out what I do and letting people take from it what may be useful for them. Questions are welcome about anything except dollar amounts.

I've been blogging on Seeking Alpha since August, 2018. I have 129 posts. Supposedly blogs are going away but for now they're still up. In any case, if you have access, these contain far more information than anyone would likely ever want about my investing, portfolio management, retirement planning, etc.: https://seekingalpha.com/user/48196727/i...instablogs

As of 1/1/22 the three accounts - Taxable, Roth, 403b - make up the following proportion of my total stock/fund investments:

• Taxable Account: 63.15%
  
• Roth: 2.15%
  
• 403b: 34.69%
  

Once I do the rollover I'll manage the Roth and IRA similarly and will mostly report on them as if they are a single account. As they aren't strictly DG accounts I will try to not talk much about them here despite my enthusiasm over, since I won't need to touch them for 13 years, being able to invest like I'm young again.

Here are my Taxable and Roth accounts as of 1/1/22, sorted by the amount a stock makes up of its respective account.


  1-1-22-PortfolioTax.png (Size: 34.43 KB / Downloads: 55)


  1-1-22-Portfolio-Roth.png (Size: 25.26 KB / Downloads: 55)

Happy New Year and Happy Investing Everyone!]]>
This is my real-world portfolio. I retired effective 12/31/21 and intend to live almost completely on it from now on. I have a couple of partnerships that provide me with a little income each year but the amount I receive is not consistent and doesn't figure in my budgeting. It's also much less than my dividend income - I call partnership income my retirement version of a Christmas Bonus.

As I type this I have two accounts; a Taxable Account and a Roth. Both were opened on March 8, 2017. I also have a 403b I will rollover to an IRA after February 19, 2022, my 59.5th birthday.

Account Goals

Taxable Account: Provide me with sustainable, growing, dividend income. I will use this account to completely fund my retirement. Based on my pre-retirement budgeting I should be able to cover about 80% of my expenses from dividend income. The other 20% will come from a combination of saved cash and periodic sales; at this time those sales will be AAPL and GOOGL shares. I won't be completely passive here but other than these sales expect to do little trading here. I'm reasonably happy with what I own though I'm sure that as I pursue my quest to become the longest-lived Human Being in the history of the planet   that some companies will run into problems. Total return/value is not a primary goal of this account but it's always nice to have.

Roth: Total Return account. However I mostly want to buy companies for it that I believe I can hold forever. I will do some trading, mainly shares around a core/long position. While its goal is not dividend income I expect most companies will pay dividends.

IRA: Once I get there it will also be a TR account, managed the same as the Roth. Right now I can only own Mutual Funds in it but this will change with the roll over.

I have a pretty large emergency fund - bigger than it needs to be actually but every time I think about, say, cutting it in half, I don't.

I don't give investing advice. I'm not that smart. But I don't mind tossing out what I do and letting people take from it what may be useful for them. Questions are welcome about anything except dollar amounts.

I've been blogging on Seeking Alpha since August, 2018. I have 129 posts. Supposedly blogs are going away but for now they're still up. In any case, if you have access, these contain far more information than anyone would likely ever want about my investing, portfolio management, retirement planning, etc.: https://seekingalpha.com/user/48196727/i...instablogs

As of 1/1/22 the three accounts - Taxable, Roth, 403b - make up the following proportion of my total stock/fund investments:

• Taxable Account: 63.15%
  
• Roth: 2.15%
  
• 403b: 34.69%
  

Once I do the rollover I'll manage the Roth and IRA similarly and will mostly report on them as if they are a single account. As they aren't strictly DG accounts I will try to not talk much about them here despite my enthusiasm over, since I won't need to touch them for 13 years, being able to invest like I'm young again.

Here are my Taxable and Roth accounts as of 1/1/22, sorted by the amount a stock makes up of its respective account.


  1-1-22-PortfolioTax.png (Size: 34.43 KB / Downloads: 55)


  1-1-22-Portfolio-Roth.png (Size: 25.26 KB / Downloads: 55)

Happy New Year and Happy Investing Everyone!]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2135 Sun, 02 Jan 2022 00:18:45 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2135
-We can see the management fee, but I think there are fees "hidden" from the investor.  Actively managed funds have costs.  Active option funds have even more costs.  Fees I can avoid, and I'll share the costs in an example.  It would take about 30 minutes per month to execute the trades after some quick and uncomplicated math.

-My real cause for concern is I am not at all convinced these funds are any less dangerous in an abrupt down market.  And perhaps even worse in a protracted bleed out.  Fact is, I can't avoid that unless I spend money hedging every month.  I currently don't plan to do that.  That will be a "side stat" if I get scared and wish to try it.  An event like the first days of Covid might persuade me. Bottomline is the ETFs stifles your chances for gains and may offer no downside protection in return.  I don't like that plan.  It is caused by mechanically selling calls at the money.  I am going to sell them 2% out of the money.  We will see what yield this delivers but it seems close enough to what the ETFs pay out monthly.  I am not firm on the 2 %, but the math seems to work in the 1 1/2 or 2% range.        

So how will this work?  I need to lock in on some mechanical rules.  Not completely inflexible, but choice A or B given market parameters.  I can't just freestyle this or the comparison will be meaningless.  If I did it right now it would look something like the following.  (Keep in mind I have to hold 100 share lots).  I can't just nibble like I could if I bought the ETF.

I'll put details of sample trades in the next post......]]>
-We can see the management fee, but I think there are fees "hidden" from the investor.  Actively managed funds have costs.  Active option funds have even more costs.  Fees I can avoid, and I'll share the costs in an example.  It would take about 30 minutes per month to execute the trades after some quick and uncomplicated math.

-My real cause for concern is I am not at all convinced these funds are any less dangerous in an abrupt down market.  And perhaps even worse in a protracted bleed out.  Fact is, I can't avoid that unless I spend money hedging every month.  I currently don't plan to do that.  That will be a "side stat" if I get scared and wish to try it.  An event like the first days of Covid might persuade me. Bottomline is the ETFs stifles your chances for gains and may offer no downside protection in return.  I don't like that plan.  It is caused by mechanically selling calls at the money.  I am going to sell them 2% out of the money.  We will see what yield this delivers but it seems close enough to what the ETFs pay out monthly.  I am not firm on the 2 %, but the math seems to work in the 1 1/2 or 2% range.        

So how will this work?  I need to lock in on some mechanical rules.  Not completely inflexible, but choice A or B given market parameters.  I can't just freestyle this or the comparison will be meaningless.  If I did it right now it would look something like the following.  (Keep in mind I have to hold 100 share lots).  I can't just nibble like I could if I bought the ETF.

I'll put details of sample trades in the next post......]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2133 Sat, 01 Jan 2022 14:35:23 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2133
I'll apologize in advance for one thing. I didn't realize I'd be managing my Roth differently from my Taxable Account until May and didn't start tracking them separately - for many items - until September. So I don't have separate account information for everything, particularly related to dividends. This post is mainly about my taxable account but I'll note when it includes information from my Roth. Beginning in 2022 I'll be tracking the IRAs separately from my taxable account.

Some quick numbers:

2021 Portfolio Value Gain:

• Taxable Account: 32.27%
  
• Roth: 38.98%
  
• Total: 32.63%
  

Total (combined accounts) returns by year:

• 2017: 16.2% (opened accounts on 3/8/17)
  
• 2018: 1.58%
  
• 2019: 31.63%
  
• 2020: 13.57%
  
• 2021: 32.63%
  

Returns are calculated after subtracting account deposits from EOY numbers.

1/1/22 Portfolio Dividend Yield:

• Taxable Account: 2.52%
  
• Roth: 2.71%
  
• Total: 2.53%
  

2021 Dividend Increase over 2020, includes Roth: 2.45%

Current "organic" Taxable Account Dividend Growth Rate: 8.98% - this up from 8.48% on 1/1/21 but I'm not sure this means anything. That number included the Roth which was mainly REITs and BDCs which have slow to non-existent dividend growth. If I were comparing apples to apples I'm not sure this represents an improvement in my taxable account alone.

Account Activity:

This was my busiest year based on number of transactions since 2017, the year I opened my accounts. For the year I had 48 buys and 28 sells for a total of 76 trades. Trades by year since I opened my accounts:

• 2017 - 237
  
• 2018 - 67
  
• 2019 - 47
  
• 2020 - 38
  
• 2021 - 76
  

Taxable Account Positions closed: DUK, GILD, JNJ, MSM, PNW (9 positions closed in the Roth)
Taxable Account Positions opened: None (8 positions opened in the Roth, plus 3 stocks I also owned in the Taxable Account)

Discussion:

Changing the Roth Account Objective: I'll not talk about the Roth, or the IRA once I fire it up, much on this forum as they are not strictly DGI accounts though 11 of the 14 Roth stocks pay dividends and I suspect a similar proportion may make up the IRA. But it's important to share this to provide some context for the weak dividend growth over 2020.

Phase 1 - Conversion to traditional Dividend Investing: Prior to COVID my Roth was for RICs. I had mostly REITs along with three BDCs. When COVID hit several of my REITs cut or completely suspended their dividends. I decided then that I should get out of REITs and invest in more "traditional" DGI/Income stocks. So beginning in late 2020 but really picking up steam through March, 2021 I sold my REITs in favor of income stocks.

Phase 2 - Conversion to a Total Return Account: In May I seriously crunched numbers for retirement for the first time. I had always thought late 2022 would be a good time to hang it up. But this spring was the first time I checked to see if I could afford it. I won't go into details but will just say that COVID had a lot to do with this. I liked my pre-COVID job where I met with people and groups to work on things. I didn't like my COVID job where most meetings were over a computer screen and when we did meet in-person I had to keep people separated and masked.

So I ran the numbers and as part of this I ran through several scenarios using the IRS1040-ES worksheets to calculate my expected taxes. I would be generating about 80% of what I needed to meet my budgeted retirement expenses from Taxable Account Dividends. Until running the tax projections I thought I would make up this "gap" using dividends from my IRA. However it makes more sense to use stock sales from the taxable account which will be taxed at 15% rather than through IRA withdrawals which would be taxed at income levels, mainly 22%.

Once I realized this, using the IRA to generate dividends to live on made no sense. So I did a second conversion of the Roth to more of a TR account though I still do like dividends. I did not begin tracking this separate from my Taxable Account until September but my Roth dividends are roughly 60% less than they were at the start of the year.

Retirement: I took a little while to think it over but in June I began prepping as if I'd retire at the end of the year. I didn't make a final decision until September but started leaning that way. So beginning on July 1, I stopped doing two things; adding new money to my accounts and using dividends received to buy more stock. 1.22% cash may not seem like a lot but it is to me. When it comes to building income, my motto has been that cash is lazy money doing nothing for me. So I tried to make my money work by staying fully invested. No longer buying dividend-payers had some impact on my dividend growth though far less than the Roth moves.

Here is an image of my taxable account with stocks sorted by % dividend income contribution. I'll add a couple of explanatory comments at the bottom.


  1-1-22 TAPortfolio.png (Size: 34.63 KB / Downloads: 21)

• The column Cost/share is calculated using my total amount paid for a stock minus dividends received, divided by number of shares I own. It does NOT include the impact of any sales of that stock.
  
• I included YOC just to demonstrate a nice characteristic of DGI. I don't use those for a lot; mainly a reminder to stay on track and, as an example, to ignore any voice which might tell me to sell, say, MSFT to increase my income. Its YOC is nearly equal to ADM - do I want to own ADM over MSFT?
  
• I hope the column headings are clear. I thought about expanding them but think you can figure what they are and the numbers will be small enough as it is.
  
• I'm not crazy about how much of my dividend income comes from MO and ABBV - even LYB is at the edge of being too much. I'm not going to do anything about it but it's not ideal.
  
• DGR numbers come from Fidelity and may not be completely up-to-date. Whenever a stock I own increases its dividend I go and check the numbers in Fidelity so some have not been updated in several months.
  
• Once a company announces a freeze I apply a 0% DGR to it. T does have a DGR but I know it won't be increasing it so I give it a 0 both here and when calculating "organic" dividend growth.
  

I don't know how to wrap 2021 up from an investing perspective. At the start of the year I set a goal of increasing my dividend income by 10%. I did not. But I changed what I was doing too. I could make a couple of other excuses - take away three specials paid in 2020 and I would have made it - but the bottom line is I didn't. However I did find I had enough to retire and with a comfortable safety margin - this may not be part of investing but it's pretty important to me.

I have no idea how my value gain did compared with the S&P. I suspect OK but I will not be comparing the Taxable Account to the market next year as I will be making some withdrawals from it, including through stock sales.

For next year my one main goal is to increase dividend income by 6% in my Taxable Account. I will be selling some AAPL from time-to-time but it's a small income contributor.

I have no imminent plans to sell anything but what I do with T remains an open question. I could decide to lock in my $3k in tax losses early, wait until after the spinoff or do something else. I'm reasonably happy with everything else I own.

The biggest investing concern for 2022 will come after 2/19 when I rollover my 403b to an IRA. But that won't be a DGI account so I won't discuss it here much and will try to minimize Roth discussion as much as I can.]]>
I'll apologize in advance for one thing. I didn't realize I'd be managing my Roth differently from my Taxable Account until May and didn't start tracking them separately - for many items - until September. So I don't have separate account information for everything, particularly related to dividends. This post is mainly about my taxable account but I'll note when it includes information from my Roth. Beginning in 2022 I'll be tracking the IRAs separately from my taxable account.

Some quick numbers:

2021 Portfolio Value Gain:

• Taxable Account: 32.27%
  
• Roth: 38.98%
  
• Total: 32.63%
  

Total (combined accounts) returns by year:

• 2017: 16.2% (opened accounts on 3/8/17)
  
• 2018: 1.58%
  
• 2019: 31.63%
  
• 2020: 13.57%
  
• 2021: 32.63%
  

Returns are calculated after subtracting account deposits from EOY numbers.

1/1/22 Portfolio Dividend Yield:

• Taxable Account: 2.52%
  
• Roth: 2.71%
  
• Total: 2.53%
  

2021 Dividend Increase over 2020, includes Roth: 2.45%

Current "organic" Taxable Account Dividend Growth Rate: 8.98% - this up from 8.48% on 1/1/21 but I'm not sure this means anything. That number included the Roth which was mainly REITs and BDCs which have slow to non-existent dividend growth. If I were comparing apples to apples I'm not sure this represents an improvement in my taxable account alone.

Account Activity:

This was my busiest year based on number of transactions since 2017, the year I opened my accounts. For the year I had 48 buys and 28 sells for a total of 76 trades. Trades by year since I opened my accounts:

• 2017 - 237
  
• 2018 - 67
  
• 2019 - 47
  
• 2020 - 38
  
• 2021 - 76
  

Taxable Account Positions closed: DUK, GILD, JNJ, MSM, PNW (9 positions closed in the Roth)
Taxable Account Positions opened: None (8 positions opened in the Roth, plus 3 stocks I also owned in the Taxable Account)

Discussion:

Changing the Roth Account Objective: I'll not talk about the Roth, or the IRA once I fire it up, much on this forum as they are not strictly DGI accounts though 11 of the 14 Roth stocks pay dividends and I suspect a similar proportion may make up the IRA. But it's important to share this to provide some context for the weak dividend growth over 2020.

Phase 1 - Conversion to traditional Dividend Investing: Prior to COVID my Roth was for RICs. I had mostly REITs along with three BDCs. When COVID hit several of my REITs cut or completely suspended their dividends. I decided then that I should get out of REITs and invest in more "traditional" DGI/Income stocks. So beginning in late 2020 but really picking up steam through March, 2021 I sold my REITs in favor of income stocks.

Phase 2 - Conversion to a Total Return Account: In May I seriously crunched numbers for retirement for the first time. I had always thought late 2022 would be a good time to hang it up. But this spring was the first time I checked to see if I could afford it. I won't go into details but will just say that COVID had a lot to do with this. I liked my pre-COVID job where I met with people and groups to work on things. I didn't like my COVID job where most meetings were over a computer screen and when we did meet in-person I had to keep people separated and masked.

So I ran the numbers and as part of this I ran through several scenarios using the IRS1040-ES worksheets to calculate my expected taxes. I would be generating about 80% of what I needed to meet my budgeted retirement expenses from Taxable Account Dividends. Until running the tax projections I thought I would make up this "gap" using dividends from my IRA. However it makes more sense to use stock sales from the taxable account which will be taxed at 15% rather than through IRA withdrawals which would be taxed at income levels, mainly 22%.

Once I realized this, using the IRA to generate dividends to live on made no sense. So I did a second conversion of the Roth to more of a TR account though I still do like dividends. I did not begin tracking this separate from my Taxable Account until September but my Roth dividends are roughly 60% less than they were at the start of the year.

Retirement: I took a little while to think it over but in June I began prepping as if I'd retire at the end of the year. I didn't make a final decision until September but started leaning that way. So beginning on July 1, I stopped doing two things; adding new money to my accounts and using dividends received to buy more stock. 1.22% cash may not seem like a lot but it is to me. When it comes to building income, my motto has been that cash is lazy money doing nothing for me. So I tried to make my money work by staying fully invested. No longer buying dividend-payers had some impact on my dividend growth though far less than the Roth moves.

Here is an image of my taxable account with stocks sorted by % dividend income contribution. I'll add a couple of explanatory comments at the bottom.


  1-1-22 TAPortfolio.png (Size: 34.63 KB / Downloads: 21)

• The column Cost/share is calculated using my total amount paid for a stock minus dividends received, divided by number of shares I own. It does NOT include the impact of any sales of that stock.
  
• I included YOC just to demonstrate a nice characteristic of DGI. I don't use those for a lot; mainly a reminder to stay on track and, as an example, to ignore any voice which might tell me to sell, say, MSFT to increase my income. Its YOC is nearly equal to ADM - do I want to own ADM over MSFT?
  
• I hope the column headings are clear. I thought about expanding them but think you can figure what they are and the numbers will be small enough as it is.
  
• I'm not crazy about how much of my dividend income comes from MO and ABBV - even LYB is at the edge of being too much. I'm not going to do anything about it but it's not ideal.
  
• DGR numbers come from Fidelity and may not be completely up-to-date. Whenever a stock I own increases its dividend I go and check the numbers in Fidelity so some have not been updated in several months.
  
• Once a company announces a freeze I apply a 0% DGR to it. T does have a DGR but I know it won't be increasing it so I give it a 0 both here and when calculating "organic" dividend growth.
  

I don't know how to wrap 2021 up from an investing perspective. At the start of the year I set a goal of increasing my dividend income by 10%. I did not. But I changed what I was doing too. I could make a couple of other excuses - take away three specials paid in 2020 and I would have made it - but the bottom line is I didn't. However I did find I had enough to retire and with a comfortable safety margin - this may not be part of investing but it's pretty important to me.

I have no idea how my value gain did compared with the S&P. I suspect OK but I will not be comparing the Taxable Account to the market next year as I will be making some withdrawals from it, including through stock sales.

For next year my one main goal is to increase dividend income by 6% in my Taxable Account. I will be selling some AAPL from time-to-time but it's a small income contributor.

I have no imminent plans to sell anything but what I do with T remains an open question. I could decide to lock in my $3k in tax losses early, wait until after the spinoff or do something else. I'm reasonably happy with everything else I own.

The biggest investing concern for 2022 will come after 2/19 when I rollover my 403b to an IRA. But that won't be a DGI account so I won't discuss it here much and will try to minimize Roth discussion as much as I can.]]> https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2132 Thu, 30 Dec 2021 21:37:37 +0000 https://DividendGrowthForum.com/showthread.php?tid=2132

December Portfolio Review

This is my real-world portfolio I will use to retire on at the end of 2021. The bulk is in a taxable account but I began a Roth in 2017 which is a small portion. As of now I have 29 stocks. The complete list is at the bottom of this post.

The purpose of my Taxable Account is primarily to provide me with dividend income to fund my retirement. I plan to completely fund my retirement from this account; about 80% from dividends, about 20% from stock sales, at least for 2022.

My Roth - and my T-IRA once I set it up in February, 2022 - is a total return account though I still lean toward companies that pay dividends.

December Numbers:

Metric                                          IRAs                           Taxable                                  Overall

---

Buys                                              2                                  0                                           2

Sells                                              1                                  0                                           1

Dividend Increase 
over December, 2020                     N/A                              N/A                                      -23.45%

Dividend Increase 
over September, 2021                   N/A                              N/A                                       -7.00%

Change in value over 11/30/21      7.04%                           6.75%                                    6.77%

Current Dividend Yield                  2.71%                           2.52%                                    2.53%

Change in 12-mo 
projected Dividend Income
(from 11/30/21)                        -15.79%                         .65%                                      -.68%

Organic/Internal annual DGR       10.14%                         8.98%                                      N/A

---

Trades: All in the Roth: Sold MO, bought BBY & WSM on December 23.

Dividends: The decline from 2020 is entirely due to the MSM Special dividend paid in 2020. Discounting this would result in a minimal increase of 1.07%. The decline from September is that I received a substantial dividend from Gilead which I have since sold. Disregarding this would have been a modest increase which should show up over the next quarter.

Beginning in 2022 I’ll be tracking my Taxable Account separately. As I plan to manage them similarly, I will group the Roth and T-IRA together. For this year I won’t have good comparison numbers, unfortunately, with 2021 and for the taxable account won’t have a lot to work with until April when I can compare comparable months – all the companies I own now pay quarterly.

I could go back to all dividends paid in 2021 and come up with the numbers but that’s a lot of work for no real purpose. I already know the taxable account dividends grew through the year, modestly and in the Roth, about every trade I made reduced them. 

The following companies paid dividends in December: ADM, ^LMT, LYB, *MSFT, NEE, PFE, UNH, WHR

^Increase from $2.60 to $2.80 per share

*Increase from $.56 to $.62 per share

Stocks owned:

Taxable Account: AAPL, ABBV, ADM, AOS, BBY, CVS, GD, GOOGL, ITW, LMT, LYB, MO, MSFT, NEE, OGE, PFE, PM, T, UNH, VZ, WSM

Roth: ABBV, AMZN, BBY, BMY, CHWY, GOOGL, LMT, MU, NEE, PYPL, QSR, SBUX, T, WHR, WSM

I'm happy to answer any questions (other than dollar figures) and please let me know if you have suggestions for the format. On SA these were usually 1500 word posts but that doesn't seem right for here. I also need to figure how to copy/paste from Word so the fonts aren't messed up.

My favorite chart: Dividend Income by Month since I opened my accounts in March, 2017:


  December 2021 Dividend by Month.png (Size: 27.93 KB / Downloads: 15) ]]>

December Portfolio Review

This is my real-world portfolio I will use to retire on at the end of 2021. The bulk is in a taxable account but I began a Roth in 2017 which is a small portion. As of now I have 29 stocks. The complete list is at the bottom of this post.

The purpose of my Taxable Account is primarily to provide me with dividend income to fund my retirement. I plan to completely fund my retirement from this account; about 80% from dividends, about 20% from stock sales, at least for 2022.

My Roth - and my T-IRA once I set it up in February, 2022 - is a total return account though I still lean toward companies that pay dividends.

December Numbers:

Metric                                          IRAs                           Taxable                                  Overall

---

Buys                                              2                                  0                                           2

Sells                                              1                                  0                                           1

Dividend Increase 
over December, 2020                     N/A                              N/A                                      -23.45%

Dividend Increase 
over September, 2021                   N/A                              N/A                                       -7.00%

Change in value over 11/30/21      7.04%                           6.75%                                    6.77%

Current Dividend Yield                  2.71%                           2.52%                                    2.53%

Change in 12-mo 
projected Dividend Income
(from 11/30/21)                        -15.79%                         .65%                                      -.68%

Organic/Internal annual DGR       10.14%                         8.98%                                      N/A

---

Trades: All in the Roth: Sold MO, bought BBY & WSM on December 23.

Dividends: The decline from 2020 is entirely due to the MSM Special dividend paid in 2020. Discounting this would result in a minimal increase of 1.07%. The decline from September is that I received a substantial dividend from Gilead which I have since sold. Disregarding this would have been a modest increase which should show up over the next quarter.

Beginning in 2022 I’ll be tracking my Taxable Account separately. As I plan to manage them similarly, I will group the Roth and T-IRA together. For this year I won’t have good comparison numbers, unfortunately, with 2021 and for the taxable account won’t have a lot to work with until April when I can compare comparable months – all the companies I own now pay quarterly.

I could go back to all dividends paid in 2021 and come up with the numbers but that’s a lot of work for no real purpose. I already know the taxable account dividends grew through the year, modestly and in the Roth, about every trade I made reduced them. 

The following companies paid dividends in December: ADM, ^LMT, LYB, *MSFT, NEE, PFE, UNH, WHR

^Increase from $2.60 to $2.80 per share

*Increase from $.56 to $.62 per share

Stocks owned:

Taxable Account: AAPL, ABBV, ADM, AOS, BBY, CVS, GD, GOOGL, ITW, LMT, LYB, MO, MSFT, NEE, OGE, PFE, PM, T, UNH, VZ, WSM

Roth: ABBV, AMZN, BBY, BMY, CHWY, GOOGL, LMT, MU, NEE, PYPL, QSR, SBUX, T, WHR, WSM

I'm happy to answer any questions (other than dollar figures) and please let me know if you have suggestions for the format. On SA these were usually 1500 word posts but that doesn't seem right for here. I also need to figure how to copy/paste from Word so the fonts aren't messed up.

My favorite chart: Dividend Income by Month since I opened my accounts in March, 2017:


  December 2021 Dividend by Month.png (Size: 27.93 KB / Downloads: 15) ]]>