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Quality vs. Valuation
#11
We'll never time a crash and we'll survive a typical correction. All you can do is allocate in a manner you are comfortable with.

Unlimited liquidity could run this thing up for years. My concerns are US equities are high to include stocks that would protect from half the pain. I am not convinced an aristocratic 20% overvalued accomplishes that. Every bond market on earth is overvalued. Real estate is bubbly so that's out.

I will just lean value and have some cash. I always feel much better when I can buy low. I don't want to avoid growth but I will lighten up fast if the market drops for a valid reason.
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#12
(08-28-2021, 08:53 PM)fenders53 Wrote: We'll never time a crash and we'll survive a typical correction.  All you can do is allocate in a manner you are comfortable with.

Unlimited liquidity could run this thing up for years.  My concerns are US equities are high to include stocks that would protect from half the pain.  I am not convinced an aristocratic 20% overvalued accomplishes that.  Every bond market on earth is overvalued. Real estate is bubbly so that's out.  

I will just lean value and have some cash.  I always feel much better when I can buy low.  I don't want to avoid growth but I will lighten up fast if the market drops for a valid reason.

I have to admit if I were preparing for retirement now, I wouldn't have a clue how to allocate my assets.
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#13
good...no...great thread...

what i try to stand by...

buy a quality company
at a reasonable price
look for that dividend
and never sell

now of course when i say dividend that doesn't mean chasing yield--that never works--i have zero issues with low dividend payers--none what so ever

and of course i don't mean never sell--it happens--and i do it too--rarely but i do sell

when i look at a company if i can't see myself owning that company 10 years down the road i move on--it's not worth the effort or the time

some of the metrics i start off with


peg less then 2.0

beta less then 1.5

pe less then 20

f/pe less then the pe


i'll look at other stuff but usually start off with these basics

surprised no one said it....


PRICE IS WHAT YOU PAY VALUE IS WHAT YOU GET........lol
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#14
and with investing nothing is set in stone...nothing

like right now i'm looking really hard at SAM--think this is going to be a great buy at these prices and i'm getting close at pulling the trigger but haven't but close

and this SAM doesn't register with all the data i look at--but some yes--but with other metrics it's looking tasty to me : ) it's almost like a black and tan
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#15
Now I want a black and tan! Love those, but haven't had a good one in years.
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#16
(08-28-2021, 09:36 PM)Kerim Wrote: Now I want a black and tan! Love those, but haven't had a good one in years.

well, it can't be wrong with Guinness over Bass or Harp


i'm going to try a Guinness over Shiner Bock (shiner is one of my favorite beers)

Guinness over Yuengling

speaking about beer...Troegs a micro brew in Hershey PA make some of my favorite beers love them!


and this sounds silly but it's sooooooo good

beer mixed with birch beer...hey they're both beer!!
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#17
Ken, I could allow allocation to stress me heading into retirement. I have a cash bucket that could cover three years. Several pensions not counting SS. Most of my stocks are Div players and my option selling game can out income a Div stock if I am smart enough to keep it extremely conservative.

Now of course it would be easier if the market doesn't have consecutive horrible years. I don't think it's paranoid to plan for a rough year fairly soon though. We are all part of a grand money printing experiment. This has never been tried before at this extreme. It may be short in duration but these algos are gonna scare the hell out of the market much like last March. I can't be greedy now and be in a spot I can't fix when retired. Let's hope problems are years away.
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#18
(08-28-2021, 10:09 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Ken, I could allow allocation to stress me heading into retirement.  I have a cash bucket that could cover three years.  Several pensions not counting SS.  Most of my stocks are Div players and my option selling game can out income a Div stock if I am smart enough to keep it extremely conservative.

Now of course it would be easier if the market doesn't have consecutive horrible years.  I don't think it's paranoid to plan for a rough year fairly soon though.  We are all part of a grand money printing experiment.  This has never been tried before at this extreme.  It may be short in duration but these algos are gonna scare the hell out of the market much like last March.  I can't be greedy now and be in a spot I can't fix when retired.  Let's hope problems are years away.

Precisely - either inflation or rising rates will flip some sort of algorithmic switch and the selling will be intense.  Hopefully it just lasts 3 days like last time.

I suppose if a retirement allocation is in dividend producers that won't cut the dividend in the event of a pullback, and will eventually recover their share price, I'd sleep okay.  There's probably a lot more peace of mind to be had with a 2.5% yield portfolio over a 5%er, but of course the income is half.
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#19
message deleted
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#20
(08-29-2021, 06:07 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote:
(08-28-2021, 10:09 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Ken, I could allow allocation to stress me heading into retirement.  I have a cash bucket that could cover three years.  Several pensions not counting SS.  Most of my stocks are Div players and my option selling game can out income a Div stock if I am smart enough to keep it extremely conservative.

Now of course it would be easier if the market doesn't have consecutive horrible years.  I don't think it's paranoid to plan for a rough year fairly soon though.  We are all part of a grand money printing experiment.  This has never been tried before at this extreme.  It may be short in duration but these algos are gonna scare the hell out of the market much like last March.  I can't be greedy now and be in a spot I can't fix when retired.  Let's hope problems are years away.

Precisely - either inflation or rising rates will flip some sort of algorithmic switch and the selling will be intense.  Hopefully it just lasts 3 days like last time.

I suppose if a retirement allocation is in dividend producers that won't cut the dividend in the event of a pullback, and will eventually recover their share price, I'd sleep okay.  There's probably a lot more peace of mind to be had with a 2.5% yield portfolio over a 5%er, but of course the income is half.
We are getting off topic a bit but it's useful conversation.  The actual trigger of a true crash is usually unexpected by the masses.  Covid was the trigger, highish valuations and debt accelerated it.  Powell and Congress put out the fire with liquidity and stimulus.  FAR exceeding previous records.  Someday something like inflation and a recession can't be controlled.  Recessions are normal business cycle and should be allowed.  Otherwise we just fall off a higher cliff.  The one thing that usually ends a bubble is excess valuation, speculation and blow off rallies.  There are certainly signs of that with crypto, meme stocks, SPAC stocks, excessive use of leverage.  I think the Russell 2000 popped 50% in about three months last fall.  QQQ had a helluva run but the earnings were there to support it.  It could go on a lot longer or not  We can't control any of that.  

You'll probably get to watch me and a few others navigate a big correction +/- 2 years from retirement date.  I don't use the "bucket strategy" but I do have a cash bucket.  I can wait years before I would be forced to sell any shares in a crashed market.  With a diversified port it's likely you own something that is not devastated until we get deep into a bear market.  You'll have a few opportunities to prepare yourself for hard corrections.  If you find yourself in panic mode selling most everything, or losing more money than everyone else then you need a new plan as your retirement approaches. Most people who panic in corrections either do not understand the long-term nature of markets, or they set themselves up for a devastating hit to their port they just can't stomach. The greed-fear thing.
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