(05-04-2020, 02:53 PM)EricL Wrote:WMT isn't bubblicious either. Not a chance I would buy it now but many 90s blue chips were 300%+ overvalued. We aren't even close to the insanity of that era IMO. You can't even easily research the worst of it because they were gone or acquired cheap in a few years. I clearly remember the $1000 analyst price target for QCOM. Are we there yet lol? I also remember owning a couple hundred shares of $80 CSCO. It must have split three times. I was too greedy (actually inexperienced) to sell it.(05-04-2020, 02:46 PM)Otter Wrote: PFE has grown earnings by an average of 4.85% annually over the past 20 years (as far as I can go back in FAST Graphs). 20 years ago, PFE traded at $45.15 with a P/E north of 43. Today it trades at $37.71, but with a P/E of around 13.2. If PFE had traded at a rational earnings multiple of 15 or less 20 years ago, investors would have enjoyed positive total return over the intervening 20 years (although not market-beating).
The chart for PFE (and a lot of other bubble stocks from the late 90s) is a helpful reminder any time I am tempted to buy DG, MSFT, WMT, and many others I would like to own, at present valuations.
I get what you are saying completely, but not sure why DG is named there. It's growing EPS at a double-digit rate and has a PE of 23 on FY21 estimates of $7.52 in earnings. It's expensive, but not outrageously so considering its growth rate.
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