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What are your winners & losers today?
#21
In reality, one only needs to hit on 2-4 stocks over your investing lifetime. If you hold on to the winners.

Even with the big winners, it is a bumpy ride with very large drawdowns.
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#22
(04-10-2021, 09:34 PM)NilesMike Wrote: In reality, one only needs to hit on 2-4 stocks over your investing lifetime. If you hold on to the winners.

Even with the big winners, it is a bumpy ride with very large drawdowns.
Two could get it done.  You have to find them early.  I thought I might be early enough on CSCO, MSFT, INTC and a few others but not quite.  I never had a problem with the bumpy ride.  The ones that never recovered were the ones that shook my confidence after 10+ years.
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#23
(04-10-2021, 07:39 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Pretty sure he is referring to selling.  Hangs around here a few days a week and starting to pick up bad habits lol.  I am trying to meet him part way.  See if I have any dogs to lose just a few times a year.  I sold too much last year.  Bought other stuff that also went up but half the time it was a wash at best.

what the hell! i'm in the wrong thread!!

i'm so use to "what did you buy today" thread being the first one up lol

alright, i don't pay attention to who are my biggest winners or losers on a per day basis

but what catches my eye is when something drops and i see a 4 figure drop and i'll go like uh oh mmmmmm....and if there's something there i'll buy--case in point kroger and qualcomm seems to go that route every so often and i'll pick up a few shares

as far as the winners for me...apple/shop/nvda/v/amp/qcom/trow/amzn

with shop/nvda/appl as my biggest percentage gainers

but then something like hsy (hershey) every time i think about getting rid of it and i look at it and it's averaging 13% plus year in year out for me--i can't get rid of that? in fact if it makes below 10% it might even be a buy who knows, right? it's a zero drama stock that does well

then MGA...here's another winner, love MGA

gild/wba/cvs are my most aggravating stocks i haven't given up on yet
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#24
I guess I'm the only one who enjoys logging in at 4:30 pm (Eastern time), after the markets have ended for the day and reporting delays are accounted for, to see where the dust settled. Theater perhaps? But I'm also interested in what's going on with everyone else's portfolios too, so if folks want to start contributing to this thread, I'd be happy to see the results. Just seeing what new stocks everyone nibbles on daily to me isn't as interesting as this topic.

As for all time, my single best purchase was SOXL on 3/19/2020.
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#25
(04-11-2021, 07:12 AM)fenders53 Wrote:
(04-10-2021, 09:34 PM)NilesMike Wrote: In reality, one only needs to hit on 2-4 stocks over your investing lifetime. If you hold on to the winners.

Even with the big winners, it is a bumpy ride with very large drawdowns.
Two could get it done.  You have to find them early.  I thought I might be early enough on CSCO, MSFT, INTC and a few others but not quite.  I never had a problem with the bumpy ride.  The ones that never recovered were the ones that shook my confidence after 10+ years.

What I found interesting is that 3 giant winners-MCD-HD-MSFT all had similar graphic profiles while multi year dips that didn't recover for a loooong time.
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#26
(04-11-2021, 09:50 AM)NilesMike Wrote:
(04-11-2021, 07:12 AM)fenders53 Wrote:
(04-10-2021, 09:34 PM)NilesMike Wrote: In reality, one only needs to hit on 2-4 stocks over your investing lifetime. If you hold on to the winners.

Even with the big winners, it is a bumpy ride with very large drawdowns.
Two could get it done.  You have to find them early.  I thought I might be early enough on CSCO, MSFT, INTC and a few others but not quite.  I never had a problem with the bumpy ride.  The ones that never recovered were the ones that shook my confidence after 10+ years.

What I found interesting is that 3 giant winners-MCD-HD-MSFT all had similar graphic profiles while multi year dips that didn't recover for a loooong time.

sometimes there are well established companies that go through some kind of falling out/growing/consolidation pains or whatever, but still a sound business overall--an accumulation phase occurs for those that are patient with time on their hands.

most people are not looking to leave millions behind but to live a comfortable retirement, most don't have an opportunity for various reasons to save millions in their working careers--just doesn't work out that way.

and it's true i'd say one only needs 2 to 4 great investments--HOWEVER--one has to be willing to accumulate--for the most part 500 to 2k dollars is not going to just get it done--one has to be willing to invest thousands and thousands more into an equity.

i'm not 100% sure i'll have those 2 to 4 great investments but i'm sure i'll have quite a few good solid investments that i keep nibbling at over time--it's okay to be average i don't need to be a home run hitter

this is what i do, though....i pick a goal and go for it


for example

assets--to go up
investments--to go up
liabilities--to go down


i'll pick a age or calendar year for a goal


an "x" amount of assets by this "age or year"

an  "x" amount of investments by this "age or year"

an "x" amount of liabilities by this "age or year"


then when i get to a certain point, another goal begins
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#27
(04-11-2021, 09:50 AM)NilesMike Wrote:
(04-11-2021, 07:12 AM)fenders53 Wrote:
(04-10-2021, 09:34 PM)NilesMike Wrote: In reality, one only needs to hit on 2-4 stocks over your investing lifetime. If you hold on to the winners.

Even with the big winners, it is a bumpy ride with very large drawdowns.
Two could get it done.  You have to find them early.  I thought I might be early enough on CSCO, MSFT, INTC and a few others but not quite.  I never had a problem with the bumpy ride.  The ones that never recovered were the ones that shook my confidence after 10+ years.

What I found interesting is that 3 giant winners-MCD-HD-MSFT all had similar graphic profiles while multi year dips that didn't recover for a loooong time.
It's actually something that aggravates me.  Everybody is Nostradamus two decades after the fact lol.  

"Just hold quality companies long term and you'll be rich!"  Yeah well maybe you will and maybe you won't.  There is no guarantee of that.  

I held three of the "Four Horseman" in the a 1990s.   MSFT, CSCO, INTC, DELL.  It was truly the FANG of the day.  Absolutely dominant names that owned their sectors!  AMZN was an overpriced joke meme stock about to lose 95% of it's market Cap in a year or two.  I made a 5X or so on MSFT, INTC, CSCO, then lost a 4X a couple years later.  Also owned the future rock stars like JDSU.  Some other huge name techs like Nortel Networks, Motorola, Lucent  etc.  Half of them filed BK or close enough.  CSCO, INTC and DELL never recovered to this day 20 years ago.  I held some of them a VERY long time.  Transferred some of the smoldering remains to JNJ and XEL.  Glad I did but it took a long time to get even.  Just lucky I didn't move it to different dogs.       

So just spare me with the profound hold no matter what narrative and it's all good words because you can't back the statement up without cherry picking with the benefit of hindsight.  The only real lesson I learned is valuation will matter eventually.  I will buy some high PEs in moderation.  I will never go all in and ride the pain of a poor entry point decision for decades.

Riding a triple leveraged ETF too long will yield the exact same result at some point if one does not have the good sense to take a profit and hide some of it in something stable for years when necessary.  My biggest concern personally is hiding places are VERY hard to find.  Half the premiere Aristocrats are arguably no more safe given their current valuations.  They were not valued like this when the tech bubble crashed in 2000.  Not even remotely close in most cases.   

Fun thread.  It is better than "I bought 10 shares of this or that today".  That thread is good for some socializing though.  It keeps us engaged.  The place would die without it.
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#28
(04-11-2021, 03:44 PM)fenders53 Wrote:
(04-11-2021, 09:50 AM)NilesMike Wrote:
(04-11-2021, 07:12 AM)fenders53 Wrote:
(04-10-2021, 09:34 PM)NilesMike Wrote: In reality, one only needs to hit on 2-4 stocks over your investing lifetime. If you hold on to the winners.

Even with the big winners, it is a bumpy ride with very large drawdowns.
Two could get it done.  You have to find them early.  I thought I might be early enough on CSCO, MSFT, INTC and a few others but not quite.  I never had a problem with the bumpy ride.  The ones that never recovered were the ones that shook my confidence after 10+ years.

What I found interesting is that 3 giant winners-MCD-HD-MSFT all had similar graphic profiles while multi year dips that didn't recover for a loooong time.
It's actually something that aggravates me.  Everybody is Nostradamus two decades after the fact lol.  

"Just hold quality companies long term and you'll be rich!"  Yeah well maybe you will and maybe you won't.  There is no guarantee of that.  

I held three of the "Four Horseman" in the a 1990s.   MSFT, CSCO, INTC, DELL.  It was truly the FANG of the day.  Absolutely dominant names that owned their sectors!  AMZN was an overpriced joke meme stock about to lose 95% of it's market Cap in a year or two.  I made a 5X or so on MSFT, INTC, CSCO, then lost a 4X a couple years later.  Also owned the future rock stars like JDSU.  Some other huge name techs like Nortel Networks, Motorola, Lucent  etc.  Half of them filed BK or close enough.  CSCO, INTC and DELL never recovered to this day 20 years ago.  I held some of them a VERY long time.  Transferred some of the smoldering remains to JNJ and XEL.  Glad I did but it took a long time to get even.  Just lucky I didn't move it to different dogs.       

So just spare me with the profound hold no matter what narrative and it's all good words because you can't back the statement up without cherry picking with the benefit of hindsight.  The only real lesson I learned is valuation will matter eventually.  I will buy some high PEs in moderation.  I will never go all in and ride the pain of a poor entry point decision for decades.

Riding a triple leveraged ETF too long will yield the exact same result at some point if one does not have the good sense to take a profit and hide some of it in something stable for years when necessary.  My biggest concern personally is hiding places are VERY hard to find.  Half the premiere Aristocrats are arguably no more safe given their current valuations.  They were not valued like this when the tech bubble crashed in 2000.  Not even remotely close in most cases.   

Fun thread.  It is better than "I bought 10 shares of this or that today".  That thread is good for some socializing though.  It keeps us engaged.  The place would die without it.

If my triple leveraged sell prices trip and nothing else looks good to invest in, I'll probably find a short term bond fund like HOBIX to park my money in.  5.75% yield, in the 2020 drop it went from 10.27 to 8 which isn't too bad.  However, in a prolonged decay like 2007, it might just be better to stay in cash honestly.
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#29
(04-11-2021, 12:34 PM)rayray Wrote:
(04-11-2021, 09:50 AM)NilesMike Wrote:
(04-11-2021, 07:12 AM)fenders53 Wrote:
(04-10-2021, 09:34 PM)NilesMike Wrote: In reality, one only needs to hit on 2-4 stocks over your investing lifetime. If you hold on to the winners.

Even with the big winners, it is a bumpy ride with very large drawdowns.
Two could get it done.  You have to find them early.  I thought I might be early enough on CSCO, MSFT, INTC and a few others but not quite.  I never had a problem with the bumpy ride.  The ones that never recovered were the ones that shook my confidence after 10+ years.

What I found interesting is that 3 giant winners-MCD-HD-MSFT all had similar graphic profiles while multi year dips that didn't recover for a loooong time.

sometimes there are well established companies that go through some kind of falling out/growing/consolidation pains or whatever, but still a sound business overall--an accumulation phase occurs for those that are patient with time on their hands.

most people are not looking to leave millions behind but to live a comfortable retirement, most don't have an opportunity for various reasons to save millions in their working careers--just doesn't work out that way.

and it's true i'd say one only needs 2 to 4 great investments--HOWEVER--one has to be willing to accumulate--for the most part 500 to 2k dollars is not going to just get it done--one has to be willing to invest thousands and thousands more into an equity.

i'm not 100% sure i'll have those 2 to 4 great investments but i'm sure i'll have quite a few good solid investments that i keep nibbling at over time--it's okay to be average i don't need to be a home run hitter

this is what i do, though....i pick a goal and go for it


for example

assets--to go up
investments--to go up
liabilities--to go down


i'll pick a age or calendar year for a goal


an "x" amount of assets by this "age or year"

an  "x" amount of investments by this "age or year"

an "x" amount of liabilities by this "age or year"


then when i get to a certain point, another goal begins

Given that I can't control the market, the only goals I can make for this year are:
* Move $35k-$50k of my company stock over to my E*Trade account.  Next year I could probably do $100k and the taxes might be the same.  Some of my original shares were bought two decades ago when it was single digits.
* Increase my overall taxable portfolio yield to 2% and keep it there (it currently sits at 1.94%).
* Shrink my overall holdings down a bit more.
* Sell some more stuff on eBay and move the money over.  Probably after the stamp book, my baseball card collection from when I was a kid.
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#30
(04-11-2021, 04:37 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote:
(04-11-2021, 03:44 PM)fenders53 Wrote:
(04-11-2021, 09:50 AM)NilesMike Wrote:
(04-11-2021, 07:12 AM)fenders53 Wrote:
(04-10-2021, 09:34 PM)NilesMike Wrote: In reality, one only needs to hit on 2-4 stocks over your investing lifetime. If you hold on to the winners.

Even with the big winners, it is a bumpy ride with very large drawdowns.
Two could get it done.  You have to find them early.  I thought I might be early enough on CSCO, MSFT, INTC and a few others but not quite.  I never had a problem with the bumpy ride.  The ones that never recovered were the ones that shook my confidence after 10+ years.

What I found interesting is that 3 giant winners-MCD-HD-MSFT all had similar graphic profiles while multi year dips that didn't recover for a loooong time.
It's actually something that aggravates me.  Everybody is Nostradamus two decades after the fact lol.  

"Just hold quality companies long term and you'll be rich!"  Yeah well maybe you will and maybe you won't.  There is no guarantee of that.  

I held three of the "Four Horseman" in the a 1990s.   MSFT, CSCO, INTC, DELL.  It was truly the FANG of the day.  Absolutely dominant names that owned their sectors!  AMZN was an overpriced joke meme stock about to lose 95% of it's market Cap in a year or two.  I made a 5X or so on MSFT, INTC, CSCO, then lost a 4X a couple years later.  Also owned the future rock stars like JDSU.  Some other huge name techs like Nortel Networks, Motorola, Lucent  etc.  Half of them filed BK or close enough.  CSCO, INTC and DELL never recovered to this day 20 years ago.  I held some of them a VERY long time.  Transferred some of the smoldering remains to JNJ and XEL.  Glad I did but it took a long time to get even.  Just lucky I didn't move it to different dogs.       

So just spare me with the profound hold no matter what narrative and it's all good words because you can't back the statement up without cherry picking with the benefit of hindsight.  The only real lesson I learned is valuation will matter eventually.  I will buy some high PEs in moderation.  I will never go all in and ride the pain of a poor entry point decision for decades.

Riding a triple leveraged ETF too long will yield the exact same result at some point if one does not have the good sense to take a profit and hide some of it in something stable for years when necessary.  My biggest concern personally is hiding places are VERY hard to find.  Half the premiere Aristocrats are arguably no more safe given their current valuations.  They were not valued like this when the tech bubble crashed in 2000.  Not even remotely close in most cases.   

Fun thread.  It is better than "I bought 10 shares of this or that today".  That thread is good for some socializing though.  It keeps us engaged.  The place would die without it.

If my triple leveraged sell prices trip and nothing else looks good to invest in, I'll probably find a short term bond fund like HOBIX to park my money in.  5.75% yield, in the 2020 drop it went from 10.27 to 8 which isn't too bad.  However, in a prolonged decay like 2007, it might just be better to stay in cash honestly.
It's tougher now for sure.  For 90% of my investing career cash or extremely short term bonds would get you 2% with next to zero inflation.  It was better than nothing as you never completely missed out on a dip, but it was foolish if you were young and had the ability to commit new money.  Every year had a half decent dip in equities and you could nibble a few bargains at some point.  If you are young and have a weekly flow of new investment money, then maybe any cash position is unnecessary.  I did that for ten years but smelled the GFC coming.  

The day will come again when a bond fund is actually a good hedge against equities. I think that day may be a year or two away though.  Maybe even longer.  Being down 10%+ of my capital in a bond fund with a 3-5% yield doesn't meet my goals if I am hiding in bonds.  Being down 10% in a long term safe bond that doesn't even yield inflation rate is even less attractive at the moment.  This is exactly why very mediocre stocks with a sub 2% div have run up in the opinion of most.
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