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10-25-2018, 10:11 AM
(This post was last modified: 10-25-2018, 10:11 AM by Otter.)
Still don't see the market as a whole as attractively priced. S&P 500 P/E ratio of 22 is still way above historical norms (average or median). http://www.multpl.com/
That said, there's almost always a bear market somewhere that's good for shopping. At various times during this year, utilities, REITs and consumer staples have been attractively priced. Perhaps Telecom and Financials (community banks especially) are the next value sectors. Don't think Tech is quite there, as the current decline is a tiny blip on a multi-year chart of FAANG outperformance. Not super interested in Industrials, Materials, or Consumer Discretionary this late in the business cycle. It's always carnage when the cycle turns, profit warnings hit, and the E part of that forward P/E you were counting on is suddenly a lot smaller.
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Also, big thumbs down to BUD for the 50% dividend cut. Maybe loading up on all that debt to acquire Inbev wasn't such a great idea.
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(10-25-2018, 10:13 AM)Otter Wrote: Also, big thumbs down to BUD for the 50% dividend cut. Maybe loading up on all that debt to acquire Inbev wasn't such a great idea.
Yeah I saw that news on BUD. Not good. Do you have shares?
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(10-25-2018, 10:42 AM)divmenow Wrote: (10-25-2018, 10:13 AM)Otter Wrote: Also, big thumbs down to BUD for the 50% dividend cut. Maybe loading up on all that debt to acquire Inbev wasn't such a great idea.
Yeah I saw that news on BUD. Not good. Do you have shares?
I hold both BUD and MO (which owns a chunk of BUD). The income drop is not a significant percentage of my overall dividend income, but it is still disappointing. Been much happier with my DEO holding the past several years, but realize they occupy a slightly different space (predominantly spirits) in the alcohol market. Beer is a tough business at the moment.
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Yes it is Otter. I own STZ. Prefer that over the beer companies.
On another note: T, GD and NOC look very interesting at these levels.
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(10-25-2018, 11:04 AM)divmenow Wrote: Yes it is Otter. I own STZ. Prefer that over the beer companies.
On another note: T, GD and NOC look very interesting at these levels.
I added NOC and T. T is already more than 10% of my portfolio.
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Great add on NOC. I bought some GD. Only had enough for 20 shares lol
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10-25-2018, 11:23 AM
(This post was last modified: 10-25-2018, 11:24 AM by fenders53.)
The BUD dividend cut rumor has been flying around for awhile. It's hard to leave those stocks gracefully once the word gets out it's coming soon. I've allowed myself to be sucked into a couple of those yield traps the past few years.
Added more HD today. Averaging down a $195 position I thought was a good deal just a few weeks ago. And speaking of yield traps I do hope T is not one because I added more on the latest stock beating.
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Anybody picking up AT&T (T) at these levels? It's dipped below $30/share and is yielding 6.7%.
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(10-25-2018, 12:33 PM)DividendGarden Wrote: Anybody picking up AT&T (T) at these levels? It's dipped below $30/share and is yielding 6.7%.
I'm sitting on a full position, otherwise I'd buy more.
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10-25-2018, 02:33 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-25-2018, 02:47 PM by fenders53.)
I have been nibbling on ATT. I'll own more tomorrow when put contracts expire in the money. Wish I had checked my crystal ball and waited but I am getting them cheaper than if I had gone all in at $33 when it looked like it would take off for sure.
I am hoping they didn't pay much for Direct TV portion because that is a game that is dying fast and they surely knew that going in. T dividend looks stable for the foreseeable future. God help us if that story ever changes. I'm cautiously optimist 
Pretty excited about my Ford shares today. Up 10% for sucking less than usual on earnings report. IMO that's when you know the bottom is likely close. For now anyway lol.
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10-25-2018, 03:45 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-25-2018, 03:47 PM by Otter.)
So, I know I cautioned about materials stocks late-cycle a few posts back, but does anyone have any insight into what is going on with LYB? Trading at close to multi-year lows, 6.8 trailing P/E, record 4.6% yield, BBB+ credit rating (Debt/Equity ratio .81), 8 years of dividend growth history (averaging 19.6% annual dividend growth over the past five years), 30% payout ratio, Chowder Number 24.4.
Even if you price in a massive economic downturn starting tomorrow, this stock appears at worst to be fairly valued. Assuming a sideways, low-growth market, it's a screaming buy by the numbers. Anyone have any insight into this company?
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