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The Defense Sector
#1
I am starting to look at the defense sector more closely (after kicking myself for not picking up LMT last year when it was at the $125 level).

Sorry for the shameless plug, but heres my first take on the current valuation - Valuation in the Aerospace & Defense Sector.

The financials and stock analysis side of the things, im ok with. But I want to get more details on the qualitative side of things for each company. What kind of products and services each company specializes in. Does anyone know any good resources that delves into this?

Thanks in advance.
R2R
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#2
(07-22-2014, 10:34 AM)Roadmap2Retire Wrote: I am starting to look at the defense sector more closely (after kicking myself for not picking up LMT last year when it was at the $125 level).

I feel you. I bought NOC in 2012 in the high $50's, but I only bought one share! My plan was to monitor it over time and add to it. I added again in late 2013 in the $90's.

Here is the article I wrote at that time:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1722792-...-right-now

Now, at $126/share, I'm not sure I want to add to it here, but my position is so small. It's my only holding in the defense sector, but I like LMT and GD for long-term holding.
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#3
(07-22-2014, 10:37 AM)DividendGarden Wrote:
(07-22-2014, 10:34 AM)Roadmap2Retire Wrote: I am starting to look at the defense sector more closely (after kicking myself for not picking up LMT last year when it was at the $125 level).

I feel you. I bought NOC in 2012 in the high $50's, but I only bought one share! My plan was to monitor it over time and add to it. I added again in late 2013 in the $90's.

Here is the article I wrote at that time:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1722792-...-right-now

Now, at $126/share, I'm not sure I want to add to it here, but my position is so small. It's my only holding in the defense sector, but I like LMT and GD for long-term holding.

LMT is a pure-play on the defense sector as far as I can tell (not that Im saying theres anything wrong with that), but from the first look at the overall valuation, I doubt they will be able to keep up the div growth going forward. This is just based on looking at the financials.

For e.g., the F35 has hit a lot of problems and has gone way over budget and countries dont want to spend money on it. There has been a lot of media coverage from the media blasting the Canadian government over the last couple of years who insist on buying the F-35 and have mislead the public on the price tag that its going to cost the taxpayers.

Ive gone off on a tangent there...but like I said earlier, I want to do some more research on what kind of technological innovation advantage one company might might have over others. Looking for reading material Smile

On a side note, I found out during that article writeup that GE (somethign that I added last month to my portfolio) is ranked #20 in defense contractors with a revenue of $4B from defense contracts. Score!
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#4
I saw somewhere a chart of the largest defense contractors sorted by US gov't revenue, and was blown away (ha!) to see that Boeing was in the top three. That is, their revenue from gov't defense contracts was as high as some of the largest pure plays (like LMT), and that did not count the non-defense revenue. Always meant to take a closer look at BA after that, but never did.
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#5
(07-22-2014, 02:35 PM)TomK Wrote: I saw somewhere a chart of the largest defense contractors sorted by US gov't revenue, and was blown away (ha!) to see that Boeing was in the top three. That is, their revenue from gov't defense contracts was as high as some of the largest pure plays (like LMT), and that did not count the non-defense revenue. Always meant to take a closer look at BA after that, but never did.

This is probably the best review Ive seen listing all contractors. The latest available numbers are FY2012.

Defense News - Top 100 for 2013

You are right - BA makes a ton of money and is ranked #2 in the revenue list. A neat $31.3B revenue out of $81B revenue for 2012 (amounting to 38.4%)
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#6
(07-22-2014, 10:37 AM)DividendGarden Wrote: I feel you. I bought NOC in 2012 in the high $50's, but I only bought one share! My plan was to monitor it over time and add to it. I added again in late 2013 in the $90's.
...
Now, at $126/share, I'm not sure I want to add to it here, but my position is so small. It's my only holding in the defense sector, but I like LMT and GD for long-term holding.

I have to preface this with I didn't do any significant research on any of these companies at this time (other than monitoring RTN which I hold).

DividendGarden, you are only looking at price. To repeat an often quoted phrase, "Price is what you pay, value is what you get." I was just thinking about this sector when this thread appeared and some thoughts kept rolling around in the empty space between my ears. So I created a portfolio on Yahoo just to look at some of the stats and included BA, BAESY, GD, HON, LLL, LMT, NOC, RTN, TXT and UTX. Probably should have included GE and HRS also but got lazy.

On a P/E basis, RTN, NOC and LLL all appear to be about or a little under value with P/Es less than 15; NOC being the lowest at 13.7.

Using PEG, all but BAESY, GD & LLL are not too high (under 2.0) when looking at what you're paying for growth. In a down market, I prefer a PEG less than 1.4 but in the market we have today, you have to pay up both for quality and growth.

Yield is pretty low for all of them but LMT is the standout winner at 3.2%. The rest are at 2.5% or less. Of course, if you look at payout ratio, I believe LMT's was pretty high last I looked.

If you look at P/S, HON is the worst at 1.88 but I don't consider that grossly out of line. I prefer less than 1.75 and the rest are between 1.0 and 1.5. This may reflect that there is some uncertainty about government spending on defense.

So, I guess you need to look deeper than just the price. Don't let anchoring or recency bias affect your decisions when constructing your portfolio. I was just thinking the other day that if RTN wasn't such a large part of my portfolio (#7 out of 27), I'd probably add on this latest dip. I had trimmed it earlier in the year to add some more diversity in the portfolio. It was #3 I believe.

Perhaps it would bolster your confidence to research what part NOC is playing in the defense field. Is it making parts for the F-35? Does it make a lot of disposable weaponry like RTN's missiles and decoys that have to be replaced? How much of it's contract money comes from new systems and maintenance/upgrades?

Don't take all these stats at face value. PEG especially since it relies on estimates and we know how reliable they can be. Yahoo is known to make mistakes also (gasp), just like any of the other financial websites.

Disclosure: I hold RTN in my portfolio, LMT in my mother-in-laws portfolio and would like put GD or LMT in my wife's portfolio when the cash is available and the yield is a little higher.

(07-22-2014, 11:56 AM)Roadmap2Retire Wrote: Ive gone off on a tangent there...but like I said earlier, I want to do some more research on what kind of technological innovation advantage one company might might have over others. Looking for reading material Smile

R2R, here's an article on RTN I thought very interesting and shows how one company creates a recurring revenue stream even if new weapons orders are not forthcoming.

Raytheon Builds a Fleet of Decoy Robots

We have a LMT plant around here and the place is bristling with spinning test radar arrays and antennae.

GD is (or was back when I was in the service) renowned for designing and building the best submarines in the world. I wouldn't doubt they still are. Newport News Shipbuilding & Drydocking couldn't hold a candle to GD's design for maintenance & usability -- saw it first hand.

I ramble on ... here's some reading material for you.
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“While the dividend itself is merely a rearrangement of equity, over time it's more like owning an apple tree. The tree grows the apples back again and again and again, and the theoretical value of the tree doesn't change just because of when the apples are about to fall.” - earthtodan


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#7
I bought 20 UTX when it dipped below 110. Between UTX and GE I figure I have a lock on the jet engine market, both military and civilian.
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#8
(07-26-2014, 10:59 AM)Dividend Watcher Wrote: R2R, here's an article on RTN I thought very interesting and shows how one company creates a recurring revenue stream even if new weapons orders are not forthcoming.

Raytheon Builds a Fleet of Decoy Robots

We have a LMT plant around here and the place is bristling with spinning test radar arrays and antennae.

GD is (or was back when I was in the service) renowned for designing and building the best submarines in the world. I wouldn't doubt they still are. Newport News Shipbuilding & Drydocking couldn't hold a candle to GD's design for maintenance & usability -- saw it first hand.

I ramble on ... here's some reading material for you.

Thanks for the link, DW. I will add that to my reading list.
I am starting to like GD quite a bit as I read more on the sector - esp considering that they are well established and leaders in the naval department - which others seem to lack.

Onwards with the research...
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#9
Just wanted to share this video from last year - found this while I was doing some research on RTN.

Raytheon XOS Exoskeleton
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#10
(08-09-2014, 07:12 AM)Roadmap2Retire Wrote: Just wanted to share this video from last year - found this while I was doing some research on RTN.

Raytheon XOS Exoskeleton

Thanks for the link. That's pretty incredible. Not quite the stuff of sci-fi movies, but clearly that will happen sooner rather than later.
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