04-15-2014, 09:08 AM
JNJ's Q1 earnings came in very healthy indeed -- $1.64 per share (or $1.54 per share, excluding one-time items). They also raised full-year 2014 guidance to a range of $5.80 to $5.90 per share. This would represent a 20% earnings increase over 2013 (which was a 24% increase over 2012).
They will be announcing the next dividend increase later this month. I am hoping that the earnings improvement sets the stage for a nice dividend increase! Anyone want to hazard a guess?
I think a new dividend of .71 is the smallest raise they would consider (up from the current .66) -- it would be on par with last year's raise. With the earnings improvement, it is hard to imagine they'd offer a more stingy raise than last year.
They could go as high as 75 cents a share and still keep the payout ratio at or below 50%. That would be by far the largest raise in five years, but the payout ratio would still be on the decline. While I suppose this scenario is possible, I imagine they will want to keep a little powder dry for next year's dividend raise, and will assume (rightly) that shareholders would be very happy with a smaller raise than that.
I think they'll settle on 72 or 73 cents per share. I hope for 73, but I'll make 72 cents my "official" guess. I'd rather be pleasantly surprised than disappointed.
They will be announcing the next dividend increase later this month. I am hoping that the earnings improvement sets the stage for a nice dividend increase! Anyone want to hazard a guess?
I think a new dividend of .71 is the smallest raise they would consider (up from the current .66) -- it would be on par with last year's raise. With the earnings improvement, it is hard to imagine they'd offer a more stingy raise than last year.
They could go as high as 75 cents a share and still keep the payout ratio at or below 50%. That would be by far the largest raise in five years, but the payout ratio would still be on the decline. While I suppose this scenario is possible, I imagine they will want to keep a little powder dry for next year's dividend raise, and will assume (rightly) that shareholders would be very happy with a smaller raise than that.
I think they'll settle on 72 or 73 cents per share. I hope for 73, but I'll make 72 cents my "official" guess. I'd rather be pleasantly surprised than disappointed.