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(02-08-2014, 08:24 PM)Kerim Wrote: ... maybe I'll look into it if I ever get bored.
OoooooooooK. Tell me how that works out for you.
I've been on many forums for many years. This has been my favorite board software so far but haven't seen what you're talking about. I only wish you had a bigger variety of smilies over on the left side of the editing screen.
More importantly, I'm wondering why more of the smart people registered here don't post more.
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“While the dividend itself is merely a rearrangement of equity, over time it's more like owning an apple tree. The tree grows the apples back again and again and again, and the theoretical value of the tree doesn't change just because of when the apples are about to fall.” - earthtodan
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Back to the CVX discussion... I'm looking for a drop to 108 to buy another chunk. Not sure if that will happen or not. We will see what the market does this week. I also find it interesting/odd that Bigoil has seemed to decouple from the Oil price. It seems like it used to rise and fall in tandem and now they don't..
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GAAP reported earnings for the last 4 quarters = $11.09. A reasonable P/E seems to be around 9.5. That gives us a fair value based on that of $105.35 and a yield around 3.8%. CAGR of GAAP reported earnings for the last 10 years is around 12%. Analysts are projecting 5.4% forward growth (Yahoo). Did a quick DCF calculation on moneychimp.com using their defaults which comes to a fair price of $124.93.
For their consistency, I'd still pay a little premium for it and that dividend sure looks nice every quarter. With it's run back up a little, it's still #3 (at 7%) in my portfolio. Do I trim? I'm not inclined to even now.
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“While the dividend itself is merely a rearrangement of equity, over time it's more like owning an apple tree. The tree grows the apples back again and again and again, and the theoretical value of the tree doesn't change just because of when the apples are about to fall.” - earthtodan
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I like CVX better than most, though not at the current price. Also am not pulled very strongly by the current market which has a glut forming in North America, a glut which won't peak for several years.
Alex
