Technology Space and The Long view

[Scooterd]

If there is one positive that can be taken away from this Pandemic experience, It's how the pandemic placed greater focus on US supply chains, and US semiconductor manufacturing capabilities. Everything from Toothbrushes and toasters to laptops , servers, EV's, AI, and IOT require the use of Semiconductors. Semi's were always there (under the covers) but we stopped thinking about them for the most part..

In the 90's approx 30% of all chip Manufacturing was done In the US, and today Since then the US has offshore most all our semi production. It was only during this pandemic when we needed a new product that wasn't available did we all sit up as consumers and take notice again - Oh! that product requires the use of Semiconductors and manufacturers are at a stand still and cannot produce product because they cannot acquire the necessary chips due (in part) to supply chain disruptions.

No matter what the "next big thing" is - My guess - it will require the use of Semi's at least in the foreseeable future.The market is handing the retail investor a gift within the beaten down semi space today that will pay huge dividends (so to speak) down the road for years to come; while folks much much smarter than I figure out the necessary solutions.

Given my age - This is most likely my last big fat long term theme swing of the bat. Semi's are the "technology space" pitch I have been looking for. Long (and still Accumulating) semi investments on every market dip and feel most comfortable doing so at present valuations.

Opinions vary (This one's mine)
Just Thoughts over coffee,
- Scoot

“The best investments have a considerable margin of safety. This is Benjamin Graham’s concept of buying at a sufficient discount that even bad luck or the vicissitudes of the business cycle won’t derail an investment. ”- Seth Klarman

"Use an appropriate "margin of safety" to manage risk. This way, you will not lose too much when you are wrong, and you will make much more when you are right. This way you can let your portfolio generate higher than market returns with less risk, in a sustainable and stable way"- Li Lu

[fenders53]

You may or may not find this interesting. I dealt with this first hand in my part-time gig at HD. HD did fine, my dept did horrible. My 2021 sales vs 2019 were down by at least 40%. I designed custom doors and windows and my manufacturers couldn't deliver. Waiting for clips and gizmos from China. A four week lead time became 12-16 weeks. About the largest US window manufacture (Jeld-Wen) eventually gave up and started sending me windows without screens, just so builders could proceed. Hope you don't have skeeters where you live lol. They had a 4 month+ backlog and still missed earnings. They could have stocked those 50 cents items in QTY but who want's to "waste" an extra $10K in inventory? On another note the vinyl strengtheners and dyes are not available. Anderson Windows is dominant in my region. They marketed bronze/dark brown windows for decades. People want to match them but it's a 16 week wait and that may be a lie. Might be their chemical supplier in Texas' fault but the result is the same. No sale during peak season.

PS, this made my job suck when I had to kill everyone's home improvement plans when they came to the store ready to drop $3-10K. Most were like, "I'll just find something else to buy and maybe do this next year" HD is lucky they sell flooring and appliances because sometimes the money was still spent there.

[rayray]

(02-17-2022, 03:16 PM)fenders53 Wrote: You may or may not find this interesting.  I dealt with this first hand in my part-time gig at HD.  HD did fine, my dept did horrible.  My 2021 sales vs 2019 were down by at least 40%.  I designed custom doors and windows and my manufacturers couldn't deliver.  Waiting for clips and gizmos from China.  A four week lead time became 12-16 weeks.  About the largest US window manufacture (Jeld-Wen) eventually gave up and started sending me windows without screens, just so builders could proceed.  Hope you don't have skeeters where you live lol.  They had a 4 month+ backlog and still missed earnings.  They could have stocked those 50 cents items in QTY but who want's to "waste" an extra $10K in inventory?  On another note the vinyl strengtheners and dyes are not available.  Anderson Windows is dominant in my region.  They marketed bronze/dark brown windows for decades.  People want to match them but it's a 16 week wait and that may be a lie.  Might be their chemical supplier in Texas' fault but the result is the same.  No sale during peak season.  

PS, this made my job suck when I had to kill everyone's home improvement plans when they came to the store ready to drop $3-10K.  Most were like, "I'll just find something else to buy and maybe do this next year"  HD is lucky they sell flooring and appliances because sometimes the money was still spent there.

interesting, when shopping for an outdoor aluminum fence they told me the brown/bronze color was not available for the foreseeable future, the black was available just not the brown/bronze color.

scoot, i also like the semi's/chips

been buying nvdia, micron (figure memory chips are a must), amat and lrcx

sold a portion of qcom but the position was a little high, so i wanted to spread it out some (i know mostly wireless)

i also like klac, amd then asml


but i'm also a fan of apple--they now have their own chips made

figure google and amazon might follow suit....tesla??? maybe they already do??

so who does that?? tsm?? broadcom??

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/stock-screener

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/stock-screener

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/research


i'm also a big fan of these beat up companies with lots and lots of cash, can we get away from big rich tech?? not anytime soon imho

[fenders53]

(05-08-2022, 08:14 AM)rayray Wrote:

(02-17-2022, 03:16 PM)fenders53 Wrote: You may or may not find this interesting.  I dealt with this first hand in my part-time gig at HD.  HD did fine, my dept did horrible.  My 2021 sales vs 2019 were down by at least 40%.  I designed custom doors and windows and my manufacturers couldn't deliver.  Waiting for clips and gizmos from China.  A four week lead time became 12-16 weeks.  About the largest US window manufacture (Jeld-Wen) eventually gave up and started sending me windows without screens, just so builders could proceed.  Hope you don't have skeeters where you live lol.  They had a 4 month+ backlog and still missed earnings.  They could have stocked those 50 cents items in QTY but who want's to "waste" an extra $10K in inventory?  On another note the vinyl strengtheners and dyes are not available.  Anderson Windows is dominant in my region.  They marketed bronze/dark brown windows for decades.  People want to match them but it's a 16 week wait and that may be a lie.  Might be their chemical supplier in Texas' fault but the result is the same.  No sale during peak season.  

PS, this made my job suck when I had to kill everyone's home improvement plans when they came to the store ready to drop $3-10K.  Most were like, "I'll just find something else to buy and maybe do this next year"  HD is lucky they sell flooring and appliances because sometimes the money was still spent there.

interesting, when shopping for an outdoor aluminum fence they told me the brown/bronze color was not available for the foreseeable future, the black was available just not the brown/bronze color.

scoot, i also like the semi's/chips

been buying nvdia, micron (figure memory chips are a must), amat and lrcx

sold a portion of qcom but the position was a little high, so i wanted to spread it out some (i know mostly wireless)

i also like klac, amd then asml


but i'm also a fan of apple--they now have their own chips made

figure google and amazon might follow suit....tesla??? maybe they already do??

so who does that?? tsm?? broadcom??

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/stock-screener

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/stock-screener

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/research


i'm also a big fan of these beat up companies with lots and lots of cash, can we get away from big rich tech?? not anytime soon imho

Shortage of proper pigment the chemical companies manufacture.  My door/window manufactures cut off these colors more than six months ago when I was selling custom stuff for HD.  At the time I thought it was hurricane induced as TX shut down.  It's pretty crazy it could take this long to restore some order to manufacturing.

[rayray]

(05-08-2022, 09:18 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(05-08-2022, 08:14 AM)rayray Wrote:

(02-17-2022, 03:16 PM)fenders53 Wrote: You may or may not find this interesting.  I dealt with this first hand in my part-time gig at HD.  HD did fine, my dept did horrible.  My 2021 sales vs 2019 were down by at least 40%.  I designed custom doors and windows and my manufacturers couldn't deliver.  Waiting for clips and gizmos from China.  A four week lead time became 12-16 weeks.  About the largest US window manufacture (Jeld-Wen) eventually gave up and started sending me windows without screens, just so builders could proceed.  Hope you don't have skeeters where you live lol.  They had a 4 month+ backlog and still missed earnings.  They could have stocked those 50 cents items in QTY but who want's to "waste" an extra $10K in inventory?  On another note the vinyl strengtheners and dyes are not available.  Anderson Windows is dominant in my region.  They marketed bronze/dark brown windows for decades.  People want to match them but it's a 16 week wait and that may be a lie.  Might be their chemical supplier in Texas' fault but the result is the same.  No sale during peak season.  

PS, this made my job suck when I had to kill everyone's home improvement plans when they came to the store ready to drop $3-10K.  Most were like, "I'll just find something else to buy and maybe do this next year"  HD is lucky they sell flooring and appliances because sometimes the money was still spent there.

interesting, when shopping for an outdoor aluminum fence they told me the brown/bronze color was not available for the foreseeable future, the black was available just not the brown/bronze color.

scoot, i also like the semi's/chips

been buying nvdia, micron (figure memory chips are a must), amat and lrcx

sold a portion of qcom but the position was a little high, so i wanted to spread it out some (i know mostly wireless)

i also like klac, amd then asml


but i'm also a fan of apple--they now have their own chips made

figure google and amazon might follow suit....tesla??? maybe they already do??

so who does that?? tsm?? broadcom??

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/stock-screener

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/stock-screener

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/research


i'm also a big fan of these beat up companies with lots and lots of cash, can we get away from big rich tech?? not anytime soon imho

Shortage of proper pigment the chemical companies manufacture.  My door/window manufactures cut off these colors more than six months ago when I was selling custom stuff for HD.  At the time I thought it was hurricane induced as TX shut down.  It's pretty crazy it could take this long to restore some order to manufacturing.

yep, yet drugs move in just fine. : /


i guess the cartels should be hired to fix the supply chain

[fenders53]

Sad but yeah, I think they could move it faster.