Your thoughts on the 2022 market so far?

[fenders53]

(02-01-2022, 07:39 PM)rnsmth Wrote:

(02-01-2022, 07:30 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(02-01-2022, 06:57 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I don't buy this recovery;the rate increases are still coming.  Going to be a tough year, but I see clear skies once the inflation/rate increases/covid dies down.  Unless, of course, WWIII starts over Ukraine.

This may sound like hocus pocus but it's simply an oversold bounce IMO.  Even in the worst of times stocks don't just drop almost everyday for a month without any relief.  Some will run away and hide for a long time, but at some point it gets too tempting to try to find a deal, whether a long-term buy or just a trade.  When the sellers look fatigued the institutions start covering shorts and here we are.  2022 will have many chapters.

And regarding Ron's oil post.  Eventually oil runs until it threatens the economy, so add that to the market stew.  After that the frackers will drill too much and fix the problem.  We've seen this oil movie before.  We are in the fourth inning with Covid crash made oil briefly worthless.  That was the opening pitch.          

And a year from now rates will be up 1-1 1/2% and we won't care. We'll have new financial drama to deal with. 

Be thankful we don't own a lot of small caps.  We are whining compared to their 12 months of woes and I don't necessarily mean the meme stocks.

When it comes to oil, keep an eye on the weekly rig count.

When it comes to 2022, we are 1.3% below our all time high.  Maybe that is because we are 19%  energy

Yes I will watch the rig count.  I wish I had more visibility on small banks willingness to loan money to fly by night frackers.  They go BK, reconstitute and rise from the ashes years later if they can get a loan.  I think they called them "wildcatters" when we were young.  As I said I have no fear this summer when vacation season starts, but it can turn on a dime.  Or I can go read articles from oil bulls that say this goes on for five years.  The truth always lies somewhere in the middle.  Oil supply/demand balance is so fragile.  A few percent away from neutral and prices fly in either direction. I'm afraid to miss the run right now but it won't be long before I worry.  EOG is about my best stock this year, and I won't allow it to become my worst.