(01-08-2022, 11:32 AM)rayray Wrote:The valuation thing always matters in the end. The tech bubble stocks I cry about were up very nice for years before they crashed. I sometimes leave that part of the story out, but I had triples in CSCO in MSFT, and doubles in INTC and a few others. They turned out to be quite mediocre investments over 25 years (I finally gave up on MSFT a few years too soon). I own quite a bit of FAANG now but worry I am setting myself up for another ten years of sideways. I don't expect that but we'll see. Will APPL and MSFT just lay there for years? It's highly likely IMO but we never know when it starts. If it's ten years from now who cares?(01-08-2022, 10:12 AM)fenders53 Wrote:(01-08-2022, 09:47 AM)rayray Wrote:That depends on whether the final destination is zero.(01-04-2022, 12:46 PM)fenders53 Wrote:(01-04-2022, 07:12 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: LMT is up just 37% in the past 5 years. Great dividend, but why put it in a total return account?Diversification maybe? Scroll back a little farther on defense stocks. You probably don't like RTX much either? What if I told you it was a 30 bagger since the mid 90s? CSCO is about about a ZERO bagger for 20 years. Do you still own it? LMT has some decent long-term stats too. I don't think LMT is going to have a great year (because they said so), but all our stocks can't have a great year every year if we are diversified, when the market is normal anyway.
These are good discussions though.
stocks go up, stocks go down, some are winners and some are laggards--sometimes for years in either case
some of my laggards have been my bigger gainers this past year--with how wild the market has been as of late my portfolio has been hanging in there quite well
i always buy too early but established some good companies that will be adding years to come
my take is buying on the way up or on the way down--in the end what's the difference??Usually they aren't though and you are correct. With a long enough hold period it generally doesn't matter much if you are buying quality that isn't extremely overvalued. Nobody will ever convince me buying more CSCO, INTC and PFE was a good idea in 1999. I may not live to be 110 lol.
yes that's another conundrum, not all stock picks will be overall winners--sometimes very good/much needed companies are not investment winners
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Cemanuel 2022 Portfolio Thread
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01-31-2022, 05:53 PM
Here are my January 2022 Numbers:
Metric IRAs Taxable Overall Buys 7 0 7 Sells 3 0 3 Dividend Increase over January, 2021 N/A N/A 10.91% Dividend Increase N/A N/A 10.01% over October, 2021 Change in value over 12/31/21 -4.47% -1.52% -1.71% Current Dividend Yield 1.52% 2.56% 2.49% Change in 12-mo projected Dividend Income from 12/31/21 -46.31% 0.00% -3.17% Organic/Internal 16.27% 8.98% annual DGR Transactions, all in the Roth: Sells:
Buys:
I have really obliterated the Roth dividends the last few months. The 1/10 WSM buy was just 1 share using MO dividends - I sold it after ex-div in December. The other buys were more substantial. February will see some big changes as I roll over my 403b to an IRA on February 19, will start buying in that account the following week. Both of my accounts held up well against the declining market, particularly the taxable account. The 403b is more geared to growth and didn't fare as well. Today's market will help it but before those tallies are in I'm down about 11.5% from highs in it. I expect it will be more like 9% once today's gains are worked in. Hopefully this formats OK.
01-31-2022, 08:40 PM
Format is fine. The exit prices look good considering the market volatility. Our port performance is similar but I had a lot of cash that missed the first part of the beating.
02-12-2022, 09:11 AM
(This post was last modified: 02-12-2022, 09:13 AM by cemanuel.
Edit Reason: typo
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I guess this is noteworthy enough to add here. On Thursday I sold all my MFs from my 403b. I was always going to sell by next Thursday at the latest. That would give the transactions time to clear and for cash to settle to do the roll over the following week. With the CPI report and the market's response I decided the chance of the value being substantially lower a week later was much greater than that it might rise. This is NOT DGI - in fact it's the opposite and for this specific situation. I did keep about $45k in FSMEX. I like medical devices as a sector but every time I've looked at companies I've decided the fund makes better decisions on them than I would.
This account was down about 6% from its ATH, up about 5% from recent lows. Planned schedule is as follows: 2/18/22 - Open a Fidelity IRA 2/19/22 - Call a Fidelity rep and make sure I have my ducks in a row, and celebrate my 59.5th birthday! 2/22/22 - Transfer funds - maybe myself, maybe with help, buying will depend on what the market is doing. Shouldn't matter a lot in the long run but still, if it's heading lower cheaper is always better I've been working on my screen this week. Have all the numbers gathered and will spend today entering them into the spreadsheet. About 190 companies. This process has me half brain-dead. Think I had a dream where I was in the middle of a war between earnings vs cash flow-based payout ratios. Next week I'll take a closer look at individual companies I'm not familiar with and that screened well. As the plan comes into focus I'll post updates.
02-12-2022, 09:43 AM
You are in a good spot here unless the market surprises us both. Do share your picks as you go.
02-12-2022, 09:50 AM
(02-12-2022, 09:43 AM)fenders53 Wrote: You are in a good spot here unless the market surprises us both. Do share your picks as you go. I'm looking at "repurposing" an old SA blog post to keep a running tally of buys. I'll share the link once I do that. Will post here in the "What I'm buying" thread and with the monthly updates in this one. If the market's moving up - which I don't expect - I'll likely have it about 1/3 invested on day 1. Heading lower and I'll force myself to wait, I hope.
02-12-2022, 10:16 AM
Sounds like a plan. I only see a few stocks that need to be panic bought right now. I think patience is mostly going to work for the stocks I am interested in.
02-19-2022, 07:24 AM
For those of you on Seeking Alpha, I'll be covering my buys to "fill in" my IRA using this blog post: Filling My IRA
I will at least post a summary here when I do my monthly updates. I may include each day's buys in the "What I'm Buying Today" thread but I make no promises. I expect time may be tight and the SA blog is the 1st place my time will go to. In SA I'll add a comment at the end of each trading day where I've made trades so anyone following that post will receive a notification. VERY glad I'm retired - I'd have figured it out but it was a huge advantage having the time to really dig into this many companies.
02-19-2022, 08:23 AM
Sounds good. It will be interesting to see your summary.
02-22-2022, 01:33 PM
(02-19-2022, 07:24 AM)cemanuel Wrote: For those of you on Seeking Alpha, I'll be covering my buys to "fill in" my IRA using this blog post: Filling My IRA The first day's trades are in and posted at the above link. They are NOT entered "prettily." I just copied and pasted from the Fidelity Transaction page. I'll clean it up eventually but between updating my spreadsheets and prepping for tomorrow I doubt that will be today. Tired now and work yet to do. Today's damage:
02-22-2022, 03:59 PM
Looks good. I really like most of the tickers and yoo caught some deals today.
02-22-2022, 04:18 PM
(02-22-2022, 03:59 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Looks good. I really like most of the tickers and yoo caught some deals today. Some - I actually bought several a bit high. Today was my day to get my STV - Screw the Valuation - stocks. For example, my target price for MSFT is 275, 30 PE. But it's just so darn good that I decided to pick it up at $287. Follow-up buys for these companies will be at a price. Eventually I'll note if something's a STV price and my target price to add more. There is a STV limit - COST is just too darn high even for a great company. I expect that filling in the rest of the account will take longer as I'll be more price-conscious. And my specs are all bought and won't be added to until they aren't specs any more. Another name for STV would FOMO buys - afraid they'll never drop to my price. |
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