Cemanuel 2022 Portfolio Thread

[cemanuel]

(01-08-2022, 09:05 AM)fenders53 Wrote: Are your dividends spread out through the months?  Mine are not which I don't see as a problem.  I think I will take my withdrawals quarterly.  I won't really know if I like that until I live it.

Not sure what you mean - I have dividends coming in every month. Right now everything pays quarterly. There's some variability, maybe 20% between highest and lowest months in a cycle.

I'm figuring on managing things quarterly but the reality is when my savings account gets drawn down I'll transfer funds. Earliest this might happen will be late April/early May. May is my biggest expense month of the year and 2nd place isn't close. Property tax, insurance, and car registrations are all due. But right now the savings account balance is the largest its been in decades, same for cash balance in the investment accounts. I could go a year from those but should probably keep a buffer in place.

Have a hefty emergency fund too but poor cash management on my part shouldn't be an emergency.

[fenders53]

Yes I meant smooth monthly dividends or not. Mine are very lumpy, and so are my expenses. I have a few years of cash set aside but if I can pay expenses with dividends and option sale income as I go that would be even better. It's all the same money though.

[cemanuel]

I have a big payer each month of the cycle.

1/4//7/10 - MO
2/5/8/11 - ABBV (traditionally my largest paying cycle)
3/6/9/12 - LYB

Helps smooth some of the variability out but as you say, quarterly seems the better way to manage it.

[rayray]

(01-08-2022, 10:12 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(01-08-2022, 09:47 AM)rayray Wrote:

(01-04-2022, 12:46 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(01-04-2022, 07:12 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: LMT is up just 37% in the past 5 years.  Great dividend, but why put it in a total return account?

Diversification maybe?  Scroll back a little farther on defense stocks.  You probably don't like RTX much either?  What if I told you it was a 30 bagger since the mid 90s?  CSCO is about about a ZERO bagger for 20 years.  Do you still own it?  LMT has some decent long-term stats too.  I don't think LMT is going to have a great year (because they said so), but all our stocks can't have a great year every year if we are diversified, when the market is normal anyway.   

These are good discussions though.

stocks go up, stocks go down, some are winners and some are laggards--sometimes for years in either case

some of my laggards have been my bigger gainers this past year--with how wild the market has been as of late my portfolio has been hanging in there quite well

i always buy too early but established some good companies that will be adding years to come

my take is buying on the way up or on the way down--in the end what's the difference??

That depends on whether the final destination is zero.    Usually they aren't though and you are correct.  With a long enough hold period it generally doesn't matter much if you are buying quality that isn't extremely overvalued.  Nobody will ever convince me buying more CSCO, INTC and PFE was a good idea in 1999.  I may not live to be 110 lol.

yes that's another conundrum, not all stock picks will be overall winners--sometimes very good/much needed companies are not investment winners

[fenders53]

(01-08-2022, 11:10 AM)cemanuel Wrote: I have a big payer each month of the cycle.

1/4//7/10 - MO
2/5/8/11 - ABBV (traditionally my largest paying cycle)
3/6/9/12 - LYB

Helps smooth some of the variability out but as you say, quarterly seems the better way to manage it.

I think my initial plan is going to be $5K cash slush and take a brokerage payment quarterly.  If that doesn't work almost all the time I probably  miscalculated the budget and I'll adjust.  That said when I get bored I'll probably grab a higher yielder that pays on an off month.  I probably get 75% of my divs in four months.  Every quarter of course.   

Quarterly draw just seems easier though as almost all my stocks pay quarterly and the monthly don't matter as it's smooth.

[cemanuel]

The $5k balance will match what I do - it's what I kept in savings when working, should work OK here. Thought I might do quarterly withdrawals but while it sounds nice in planning I know me well enough to where I suspect I'll just take cash out when I need it.

[fenders53]

(01-08-2022, 12:03 PM)cemanuel Wrote: The $5k balance will match what I do - it's what I kept in savings when working, should work OK here. Thought I might do quarterly withdrawals but while it sounds nice in planning I know me well enough to where I suspect I'll just take cash out when I need it.

My plan keeps evolving (even since this morning lol) and that is OK I guess.  I think a regularly scheduled quarterly withdrawal.  If I need a small unscheduled draw so be it.  I know when my property taxes are due.  I may or may not know when an extra vacation is planned.  I don't know when I will stop putting off getting a newer vehicle, or a camper, or a boat.   Will I pay cash?  Or will I finance a large purchase and take a year to pay it off?  Who knows, and I don't have to decide today.   I spent my life being concerned about my investments.  I should be able to back off on that now.  If not I am probably doing this wrong.

[ken-do-nim]

(01-08-2022, 11:40 AM)fenders53 Wrote:

(01-08-2022, 11:10 AM)cemanuel Wrote: I have a big payer each month of the cycle.

1/4//7/10 - MO
2/5/8/11 - ABBV (traditionally my largest paying cycle)
3/6/9/12 - LYB

Helps smooth some of the variability out but as you say, quarterly seems the better way to manage it.

I think my initial plan is going to be $5K cash slush and take a brokerage payment quarterly.  If that doesn't work almost all the time I probably  miscalculated the budget and I'll adjust.  That said when I get bored I'll probably grab a higher yielder that pays on an off month.  I probably get 75% of my divs in four months.  Every quarter of course.   

Quarterly draw just seems easier though as almost all my stocks pay quarterly and the monthly don't matter as it's smooth.

RIO is my only semi-annual payer; it pays in March & September.  Assuming I still have that when I'm retired I'll view it as my bonus.  It is variable so you can't budget against it anyway.

Let's see; what are my biggest quarterly payers?  Checking ...

1/4/7/10 - CIM
2/5/8/11 - HTGC
3/6/9/12 - ARCC (my largest pay cycle; esp 3 & 9 because of RIO, but also because AVGO is there as well)

Right now E*Trade thinks QYLD is my biggest monthly payer because it is taking its stellar December and estimating it for every month going forwards, but I'm sure OXLC is in actuality the biggest over the stretch of a year.  Oh hey look I found a bug in their software; they aren't including OXLC's estimated dividend for February; maybe because February only has 28 days?

[cemanuel]

I don't know when I will stop putting off getting a newer vehicle, or a camper, or a boat.   Will I pay cash?

People say I need a new car before driving all over. Have a 2009 Accord with about 180k miles - it runs good and to me it's fine but I'd be open to the idea if supply/prices ever get back to reasonable. The big short-term COVID change for me is travel. The plan was this spring to take my first big International Trip and first-ever off the W hemisphere with a Med cruise. Now I'm not a cruise fan but this one leaves from Rome with stops in Athens, Jerusalem and points between - seems an easier way to visit historical sites than trying to figure out train schedules and half-a-dozen languages. I was looking to alternate International with domestic trips by year.

Until COVID eases off my big trips will be US (maybe Canada) and likely cheaper. I have no desire to experience being trapped on a plague ship. This year is Yellowstone and if the virus is still going in 2023, Yosemite.

[fenders53]

My old Jeep Cherokee is now ridiculous. I am not going to get ripped off paying 130% of value for anything better. Prices will drop like the flick of a light switch later this year.

And yeah no cruises for me soon for obvious reasons. Just spent almost 3 weeks feeling blah from Omni. Getting ready to head to work. First time I went farther than the convenience store since DEC 22nd. One of my co-workers has been in a coma for over two weeks. He is maybe 45 yrs old. Covid is a political joke until it kills your uncle or a friend.

[cemanuel]

I'm debating going a different direction with the next vehicle. Right now I also have a '97 Ford 3/4 ton. Use it to work around the place. Thinking of switching the Accord for a 4WD half-ton extended cab. Keep the old truck to haul with plus it has an 8-ft bed. Waiting for prices on cars with the depreciation driven off - I tend to buy 1-2 years old with modest mileage - to get reasonable. The mileage won't be what the Accord has but places I want to go will need more ground clearance. Plus I've always liked the visibility with a pickup. We'll see. Lot of choices.

Lost an Uncle to COVID. 84 but otherwise in good health, probably had some years left. Took over a month, at first thought he was going to be OK but his blood oxygen just never got back to where it needed to be and eventually his organs closed up shop. No real close friends otherwise but people I knew, worked with, etc., and like about everyone, know lots of folks who've had it and recovered. AFAIK I haven't, yet. Fully vaccinated & boosted.

[fenders53]

I could definitely use a truck again. My property is on a hill and the Cherokee offers mobility in winter. It's not the modern cushy SUV version. Not as useful for hauling chores for sure. Definitely agree on slightly used vehicles. A year later what's the difference? Who doesn't love a new vehicle but trucks are expensive and it seems senseless to scuff up a brand new one.