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Cemanuel 2022 Portfolio Thread
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08-08-2022, 08:43 AM
I just sold 155 shares of AAPL in my Taxable Account at $167. This is to pay the taxes on the IRA conversion which I calculated yesterday afternoon. That number was large but I knew it would be.
Cost of doing business.
08-13-2022, 08:09 AM
Celebration Comment.
With ABBV paying Monday I have now exceeded my dividend income for all of 2021. It seems like this should have a title - Financial Freedom Day, I'm Greedy - Goodie Day, something. There are two qualifiers for this. This includes the massive LYB special dividend paid in June and T-IRA dividends, something I did not have last year. Interestingly the two amounts are similar, the LYB special is about 9% more than my IRA divs. Remove one or the other of those dividend sources and I'd be passing my 2021 income level in September, remove both and late October. But however it's measured, 2021 has seen a return to solid double-digit dividend income growth for me. I have seen many comments from people that their income took hits in 2020. Interestingly, for me 2020 gave a 30.46% Y/Y increase. It was 2021 where that dropped to 2.45% Y/Y. Seeing growth return strongly this year is nice. Expected, but still nice. I believe there are moments worth celebrating and this is one for me. I hope others are able to enjoy the same at some point this year, if you haven't already.
09-07-2022, 06:18 AM
August Portfolio Update
Probably the biggest news was making a big IRA-Roth conversion on August 1. I decided I had no idea if the market was going to keep heading up or go back down and it was quite a bit lower than on January 1 so I went with it. Basically I did my usual conversion of accumulated dividends and then moved all my NVDA and AMD. This has created a Roth that behaves very strangely with over 60% in those two stocks. I also had a necessary response to this. Once I calculated the tax bill, roughly, I made a big sale of AAPL so I could write some hefty checks to the state and federal governments in September. I did not withdraw that sale money in August but waited for September and interest earned was actually more than a few pennies. I did make two withdrawals from the Taxable Account. One for living expenses and the other to give $6k to a nephew to start a Roth. This was another record dividend income month, once you discount the June LYB special. With ABBV paying on 8/15 I surpassed my total dividend income received for all of 2021. Of course I had IRA divs and the big LYB special which I did not last year. Without one of those I'd have passed this milestone in September. Without both, late October. It's been a good year for dividend increases. Here are the numbers: Metric IRAs Taxable Total Buys 1 2 3 Sells 0 2 2 Dividend Increase over August, 2021 529.52% 2.27% 55.24% Dividend Increase over May, 2022 44.83% .91% 18.41% Change in value over 7/31/22 -5.73% -4.62% -5.20% Current Dividend Yield 1.66% 3.05% 2.33% Change in 12-mo projected Dividend Income fr 7/31/22 6.74% -.63% -.15% Organic/Internal annual DGR 14.55% 10.28% N/A The IRA & total dividend figures compared with May mean something, the comparison with August, 2021 do not. The balance change includes the withdrawals from my Taxable - DG - account. Interesting that even with taking money out it lost less value than the IRAs which are Total Return accounts. The big AAPL sale was enough to keep my dividend growth in my Taxable Account down from May and cause a small decline in my 12-month dividend income projection. Transactions: Taxable Account Sales: 8/1/22 – BBY, $76.53 8/8/22 – AAPL, $166.99 Buys: 8/1/22 – TROW, $121.17 8/1/22 – MO, $44.01 Roth Buys: 8/1/22 – GOOGL, $115.13 IRA Transactions None IRA-Roth Conversion: 8/1/22 - Cash, AMD, NVDA Dividend Increases: LOW - $.80 to $1.05/sh The Roth GOOGL buy was with accumulated dividends after the conversion. The Taxable Account BBY sale was the closing half of a Tax-Loss strategy. I bought some BBY for $65 in June. Once the wash period was up I sold shares bought in the $90s for the loss. Then I used that to buy TROW and a little MO which I was just short of having a full position in. I set a limit sell order of $167.00 for AAPL - no idea why it came up a penny short but the amount was small enough that I decided not to worry about it. August was a good dividend month. I didn't like the number I came up with for what I owe in taxes after the IRA conversion (more than I've ever paid for a car!) but I knew that was coming. I'm trusting that 13 years from now once I reach RMD age that I'll appreciate having done it.
10-04-2022, 07:22 AM
September Portfolio Update
This was a more active month so this update will be longer. I get busier during market declines. I'll have something that's fulfilling its purpose but something else will drop to a nice buy level that would serve that purpose better. Plus I retired some money and unlike past months this was not just a little to live off of but a chunk. The big withdrawal from my Taxable Account included a little to supplement my dividends and live off of. The big one was to pay the taxes on my big IRA-Roth conversion from August 1. Unlike past months which didn't have a big impact, this one did. Without that chunk of change taken out my Taxable Account - and overall - value decline would have been about the same as for the IRAs. Part of the point for tracking this is to demonstrate, hopefully, that I can continue to increase investment value despite periodic withdrawals so I'm not adjusting losses to reflect that. After some debate I decided not to do calculations which involved the June LYB special. If I had I'd need to include a qualifier which is just a pain and one I'd need to keep doing until next June. So that nice little bonus isn't in the comparison numbers. Here are the numbers. Metric IRAs Taxable Total Buys 2 2 4 Sells 1 2 3 Dividend Increase over September, 2021 412.51% -4.80% 47.60% Dividend Increase over June, 2022 1.16% -9.67%* -5.34% Change in value over 8/31/22 -8.88% -12.28% -11.43% Current Dividend Yield 1.86% 3.39% 2.60% Change in 12-mo projected Dividend Income fr 8/31/22 1.29% -2.60% -1.15% Organic/Internal annual DGR 14.74% 10.88% N/A As has been the case, and will be for another several months, the comparison of IRA and total dividend numbers from a year ago are meaningless. From 3 months ago they do mean something. I have cash sitting in my Roth and my Taxable Account. I have not yet bought something with the OGE sale proceeds. Taxable Account Transactions Sales:
Buys:
Roth Transactions Buys:
IRA Transactions Sales:
Buys:
For these transactions, I have not "liked" VZ since the last ER. There are just no growth prospects. Now I expect it will keep paying its dividend with minimal annual increases for some time. But with the drop in prices, some other companies were yielding to the point where trading a bit of current income for stronger dividend growth seemed to make sense. I bought WHR, yielding over 5% with some of the proceeds. Tax-Loss Transactions: For the rest I bought BBY which is a different sort of deal and a repeat of something I did earlier this year. I have some shares bought at $95 and above. I bought that number of shares for $68 - was hoping for $65 and gave up waiting, gave up a little too soon - and once the wash sale period is up I'll sell my higher-priced shares for the tax loss. Then I'll use that cash for something else. I also banked a tax loss on VZ as I sold shares bought at $48 and above. I still have a little VZ left and let's just say that if the market stays low or heads down further, those shares are in peril. With its latest announcement OGE had given two very small dividend increases in a row and there are companies yielding as much or more with much stronger growth. I have not yet used that cash to make a buy which is a major reason why my forward 12-month dividend income shows a decline. For now I'm waiting to see where prices drop to. My watch list includes AVGO - at $410, EMN, TROW and WHR. But others could come into play if their price drops enough. In the IRA, DG has been one of my strongest performers since buying in February and March. Foolish to sell, right? Maybe but as with VZ, other companies I liked had dropped to levels where I wanted them. I initially had wanted about a half-full DG position but ended up going full on it. This takes it back to that half-position and unlike VZ, those shares are staying put. I put half of that into ADBE at $310. I'm sitting on most of the rest and in addition to ADBE am looking at KLAC or MU for the rest. I've set several $300 LBOs on KLAC that haven't hit. There are other options and more may come if declines continue but those two are at the head of the class. Though I looked at ARCC and it is tempting - I owned it for several years, made good money and consider it very solid. But for now I'm staying out of RICs. There is one other transaction piece. The IRS allows a one-time (for your lifetime) tax-free IRA to HSA conversion. I did this in September and moved $4,650. I don't talk about the HSA here. It's small and I just put it in index funds. But for those who may be retired it's worth exploring. My plan for the HSA is to pay Medicare premiums once I hit 65. That's a tax-free withdrawal and I expect to means-test to where I have to pay a decent amount. That accounts for about .6% of my IRA value drop. My "internal/organic" DGR keeps going up in both accounts which is nice. That will happen when you swap out VZ for two companies with double-digit DGRs. I love getting dividend increases and I had several nice ones, including GM resuming theirs. Unfortunately none were for companies in my Taxable Account where I like them even more since those buy me food. But I get some in that account in October. I used to do more involved quarterly updates but have stopped. However my 3rd quarter dividend income was 7.75% higher than for the second quarter - again, not counting the big LYB special. I had finished my IRA buying by early March so this comparison means something. I've mentioned most of my October plans above. I will sell some AAPL if it keeps heading up. I'll start thinking about it at $150. I don't need to sell any until November but I don't think the recent bounce represents a major change in market direction. I'm likely to sell whatever I think I need for the rest of 2022. Right now I'm thinking Christmas to early next year is the first realistic chance for the market to actually turn the other direction as by that time the Fed is likely to have drawn close to its 4.6% fund rates goal. But inflation also has to show signs of moderating. Based on my historical accuracy in predicting the market, this thought is probably wrong. My thoughts to those in Florida affected by Ian. That just sucks. *LYB June special dividend not included 
10-04-2022, 05:50 PM
Looks like another strong month. It's been a great year for dividend increases. I am hoping next year is at least OK enough.
10-05-2022, 07:16 AM
(10-04-2022, 05:50 PM)fenders53 Wrote: Looks like another strong month. It's been a great year for dividend increases. I am hoping next year is at least OK enough. Yes, this has been a year for dividend hikes. I expect my organic DGR to fall back closer to its historical 8-9% before long. There are quite a few companies that increased their dividends well beyond their cash flows though in many cases these were makeups for low increases last year.
11-03-2022, 06:25 AM
October 2022 Portfolio Update
This was a slower month from an activity perspective so this one should be briefer. The biggest news is that this was a monster dividend month for me, easily the highest I have ever had and also the highest ever - not counting LYB's special dividend in June - in my Taxable Account. This was the case even though I sold OGE, an October payer, late in September. Significant gains compared with both 2021 and this July. You will notice a decline in my Taxable Account forward 12-month dividend income projection. This was for two reasons. One is the OGE sale I mentioned, the other is a tax-loss sale of BBY on 10/31 I'll discuss more below. I had not bought anything with those funds as of the end of the month. I spent half on November 2 for TROW and WHR and this has already reversed that number. One other interesting note. I made a small withdrawal from my Taxable Account to cover ongoing expenses. Despite this my Taxable Account still outperformed my IRAs for total value. This was a surprise as the IRAs have what I consider "growthier" stocks which should outpace my Taxable Account during a strong market - and drop more in a weak market. For now a one-month surprise is something I'm chalking up to short-term vagaries. And for all I know the Nasdaq may have gained less than the S&P. My IRAs have a lot of tech. As usual, overall and IRA dividend comparisons with a year ago are meaningless as I didn't have the IRA then. Comparisons with July are valid. Here are the numbers. Metric IRAs Taxable Total Buys 3 0 3 Sells 0 3 3 Dividend Increase over October, 2021 731.26% 34.96% 83.03% Dividend Increase over July, 2022 13.96% .70% 5.75% Change in value over 9/30/22 6.17% 7.46% 7.37% Current Dividend Yield 1.80% 3.14% 2.42% Change in 12-mo projected Dividend Income fr 9/30/22 1.40% -.51% .22% Organic/Internal annual DGR 14.88% 10.37% N/A Taxable Account Transactions Sales:
Roth Transactions Buys:
Dividend Increases:
The BBY sale was the close of a tax-loss move. I had gone overweight BBY on September 26 with a buy at $68. On October 31 I sold the same number of shares, all bought earlier this year at $95-$99. As of the end of October I had not done anything with that cash or with what I had from selling OGE in September. In the Roth I made an IRA conversion of about $10k in September. I split that money between AMD and KLAC at $300. I made another conversion of received IRA dividends and picked up some additional KLAC at $265. Going forward I shouldn't need to sell anything from my Taxable Account the rest of this year. I have about half of the OGE/BBY cash left and plan to buy something. Right now TROW, WHR and AVGO if it drops to $410 are most likely though with enough market movement others could come into play. I will make another IRA conversion once $1k in dividends have accumulated. At this precise moment in time MSFT at $220 has finally gotten to where I'd buy more but I won't have the cash until later this month. If it heads back up there are plenty of choices. Happy investing everyone!
11-18-2022, 07:36 AM
With LYB announcing its next dividend I can now estimate my total income for 2022. This won't be precise - I've been carrying more cash than usual and do consider in-account interest as part of the income pool. But it will be close. This is for my Taxable Account alone. Total and IRA dividend income aren't comparable due to opening the IRA in February.
12-05-2022, 10:09 AM
November Portfolio Update
The biggest DGI news to report was increasing my Taxable Account income by making some buys which I'll discuss more below. I met with a tax guy and after going through tax implications for conversions I converted roughly another $30k from my IRA to my Roth. The cliff notes version of this is that, for some reason, Taxable Account cap gains do not count as income toward the IRS tax bracket levels - IRA moves do. However those gains do count toward the $200k circuit breaker where I'd have to pay an additional 3.8% Medicare tax. My conversions were basically a stock version of "The Biggest Loser" and are listed later. Here are the numbers, discussion of which will be below. Metric IRAs Taxable Total Buys 0 4 4 Sells 0 0 0 Dividend Increase over November, 2021 416.63% -13.18% 36.14% Dividend Increase over August, 2022 -16.61% -12.83% -13.64% Change in value over 10/31/22 9.85% 5.58% 7.71% Current Dividend Yield 1.65% 3.09% 2.31% Change in 12-mo projected Dividend Income fr 10/31/22 .21% 4.00% 2.55% Organic/Internal annual DGR 14.91% 10.39% N/A As has been the case for a while and will be through next February, Taxable Account dividend numbers mean something, IRA and total numbers do not. This month was mostly good but some of the numbers look poor so I'll cover them. The gains in account value were nice and I am now very close to even in my Taxable Account, accounting for account withdrawals, for the year. I'm still down 8% or so in the IRAs. Unlike October, my IRA gains outpaced the Taxable Account. This is how it should be so I'm chalking the October numbers to a one-month anomaly. I made one $5k withdrawal from the taxable account for living expenses. That and other withdrawals count when it comes to calculating value. IOW I do NOT add $5k to my ending value to get the value change number in the table. The 4% 12-month dividend projection gain in my Taxable Account is nice. I had a fair amount of cash available. Some was from selling OGE in September where I still hadn't spent all of it and more was from a 10/31 tax loss sale of BBY. Putting that to work gave me a nice boost and my dividend income is now at an all-time high with growth figures remaining solid. The minimal IRA increase in projected dividends is from the three companies that announced increases. So now the negatives. My November Taxable Account income was down substantially both YoY and from August and the IRA income from August. The declines were big enough for me to dig into. In the IRA the reason is simple. My last two TD dividends are dated 8/2 and 10/31. It's a substantial contributor to IRA income. Don't ask me why it paid late the previous time but it did - I log dividends as being received when they show up in my account. So that income being there in August and not in November is the reason for this - and for the outsize October IRA dividend growth over July. The Taxable Account declines are also simple. In November, 2021 I owned much more T and VZ than I do now, I owned AOS which I have since sold, and I have trimmed some AAPL for living expenses. Comparing with August of this year, again, I've sold 2/3 of my VZ and some AAPL. That income loss accounts for the difference and then some. I'd have had a very minor increase both YoY and from August if I still had as much of them. My 4th quarter shows a dividend increase over the 3rd quarter so there's nothing to worry about. Taxable Account Transactions Buys:
No IRA transactions IRA-Roth Conversions: AMZN, CRM, LCID, META, TSLA Dividend Increases:
In the IRA I have made my final conversion for 2022. This was for received dividends and I already added more TGT with it on 12/5. In my Taxable Account I was open to selling the rest of my VZ and using that to add more BBY but this was when BBY was trading in the 60's. I'm willing to trade off a 7%, glacially growing yield for 5.5% with a double-digit 5-yr DGR. But now that BBY yields roughly 4% I'd lose more current income than I'm willing to sacrifice. That opportunity may come along again, or not. Otherwise I plan to collect dividends, wait for the next Fed decision, and enjoy the holidays. |
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