I'm Worried About MO

[kolpin]

(12-20-2021, 09:28 PM)Kerim Wrote: Yeah, I get those arguments, thanks. But you can't pay dividends out of 'adjusted' earnings. If my math isn't awful, they're paying out more than $6 billion a year in dividends, with nowhere near $6 billion in earnings. That can be fine if the balance sheet is good and it really is temporary.

I'm hoping to make time soon to dig into the financials a little deeper.

I'm worried about MO's balance sheet too. 

I used to be in the camp of "getting paid while I wait" with stocks, but I've shifted in the last couple of years to 'if I see warning signals, I'd rather get out sooner rather than later" camp. That's not to say I sell at the first sign of "smoke" (hardy har), but MO's less than stellar acquisitions, coupled with a secular decline in smoking and the IQOS decision presenting the latest legal setback--all together set off fire alarms. I have no idea if it will take 1 year or 10 years for a dividend cut to occur, but I'm fairly certain that management will continue to make decisions which erode shareholder value. 

I hope to continue selling my MO position in 2022, and exit it completely in 2023 (tax implications).