01-12-2022, 11:17 PM
(01-12-2022, 08:19 PM)Kerim Wrote:Good points Kerim. When I first looked at ABNB my concerns were....(01-12-2022, 03:16 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: In 2021 I had originally planned to make ABNB a core position, figuring once covid subsided it would take off. Now it seems like covid is never-ending. Not sure anybody wants to rent their homes out anymore.
I've got no opinion about ABNB as a core holding, but I'm not sure I agree with your reasoning. Personally, I'd be far more inclined to travel via AirBNB than by hotel during pandemic surges. Way fewer in-person interactions, you have the whole place to yourself, a proper kitchen to feed yourself. And LOTS of AirBNB properties are not "homes" at all, but individual properties (or even large portfolios of properties) that are owned entirely for short-term rental.
Lasting business model which I thought was a pass.
Moat? Definitely in the short term because they operated privately and built a solid brand. Longterm moat is debatable. Efficiency needed to discourage mediocre competitors.
Profitable fast enough to warrant the IPO price on day one, nevermind after the immediate runup? Fail IMO. Not worth the combined market cap of several major hotels and a successful restaurant chain. I don't want to wait three years for a reasonable valuation. That ends bad in a tough market. The stock could dip another 20% from here and it is already way off highs. IMO there is no margin of safety but I am saying there's a chance I won't regret it at 155.