12-16-2021, 06:20 AM
(12-15-2021, 06:17 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: ABBV is amazing!!!
The big question is still how it fares in 2023.
IMO for the most part this has been answered. Back in 2018/19 when I was buying, my thesis was that if the Humira patent slope (cliff is as wrong for it as any other drug) could be at least 75% replaced by the pipeline the company would do fine and I was getting a good deal. Now part of this is due to AGN but the question has been answered in the affirmative, at least for me.
Maybe confirmation bias - or transference - but I suspect the reason valuation multiples are slowly rising is that the impending doom that folks were predicting a few years ago just won't happen. You don't "just replace" the world's best-selling drug. But ABBV has taken several through the approval process that would be considered blockbusters unless you compare the sales with Humira.
It's nice when a company demonstrates quality of management and also their R&D - and in this case M&A as well. That was my investment thesis back then. If they had failed I think we'd be looking at another GILD - a company I also had a lot of (not as much as of ABBV) until a few months ago.