What I Am Buying Today.

[crimsonghost747]

what is this obsession with these old dinosaur tobacco companies? I get that the yield is nice but what is the long-term investment thesis? Suddenly smoking will become cool again? Or are we expecting Asia (where I believe smoking is still growing when measured in $$$) to just keep growing and not to follow the west like they do in so many other social trends? Won't be more than 10 years before Europe will be seriously pushing to ban smoking. I told you guys to sell these companies like a decade ago but you're still buying more??

Nicotine may not be a bad business at all but smoking is going out of style. This is a long term trend, especially in the west. And buying a struggling over-hyped e-cigarette company for billions only to see the whole thing fall flat on it's face isn't exactly the answer.

If you must have nicotine in your portfolio, check out swedish match. Pretty much the market leaders in anything smokeless (which I believe to be the trend going forward) and now they are actually planning on divesting their cigar business so the company will be pretty much smoke-free after that. Good growth, decent dividend, overall a good company... some regulatory risks obviously and I'm not up to date on the valuation. They have significantly overperformed MO/BTI over the long-term and I don't see that stopping anytime soon.