What I Am Buying Today.

[ken-do-nim]

(09-17-2021, 12:41 PM)fenders53 Wrote:

(09-17-2021, 10:36 AM)ken-do-nim Wrote: ... and 4 RIO :-)

Iron ore is crashing pretty hard right now.  IMO the next few years should be good though if there is any sort of infrastructure package and automakers back to normal.  Much like lumber which set records and crashed hard this spring  Lumber mill stocks are stabilizing just a few months later.  Commodities are really tough so you need to follow the story even if the position is small this time.  Win or lose you need to have some idea why so your future larger bets are informed bets.  We can only buy and hold them for years when we buy the bottom, and that is not what we are doing here.  I said "we" because a lot of us have dipped our toe in the water way past the trough prices.  US Steel is building a new steel plant that won't even produce until next year.   That's a pretty good sign as the US steel industry died when I was a kid. Little investment since then industry wide other than some Nucor modernization. 

Anyway the point of all that was you will lose bad in the end if you just wing it with commodities.  I still keep the bets small and short-term unless I know I bought when there was widespread panic among stockholders.  It takes a recession to cause that.

Yeah iron ore is back to the price it was a year ago.  I really don't think industrialization is just going to halt because the Chinese government made emissions reductions promises.  It will be fascinating to watch what happens.  I figure you buy when it seems like everyone else is trying to sell, right?