(06-18-2021, 08:52 AM)EricL Wrote:(06-18-2021, 04:27 AM)fenders53 Wrote:(06-17-2021, 05:59 PM)ken-do-nim Wrote: I should have gone into solar by now. My bad.While I do believe there is a bright future for the eventual winners, they are over-valued and overhyped. They are just something for traders to move in and out of. I stick to the currently profitable ones as they are less likely to lose 75% of their value if the political winds change. If I were more confident I would only own two instead of six names. The problem is the ones that can 5X are the small ones that can -5X. No different than buying a tech stock that has been in business for a year and bleeding cash.
I do own long shares but most of my solar profits are from selling options to the gamblers every time they dip. The premiums are very good because the stocks swing in a 25% range for no particular reason. RUN is a good example. They announced margin pressure like a mentioned a week or too ago. It's going to happen or they would not have warned. Two weeks later major brokerages put a screaming buy recommendation on them and raised their price target to double current share price. A month from now they'll blow earnings and the stock will tumble. The manipulators will have already executed a swing trade they orchestrated. I don't like the gamesmanship at all but I don't make the rules. You can't keep a port full of this stuff and I don't. There is just no way to manage it short of staring at a monitor and day trading it.
I've taken a similar approach. Went with SEDG and ENPH, as they were the two that looked the best to me for earnings and growth. Most of the others were insanely overvalued, while these two at least have PE's under 100. =)
Those are two of the best. CSIQ is another favorite of mine. They have a much lower PE. RUN has been fun but only because I am winning. I am comfortable holding at least a small position in these. I own a few dicier ones but only like $500 or $1000 until I see a few more quarterlies or a real move from the politicians that assures them a few years of solid cash flow. (which I see as probable but nothing is certain).